CHINA'S TAIWAN CONNECTION IN OPPOSING KOSOVO

C O N F I D E N T I A L BEIJING 007210 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/23/2027 TAGS: PREL PGOV UNSC CH TW YI SUBJECT: CHINA'S TAIWAN CONNECTION IN OPPOSING KOSOVO INDEPENDENCE Classified By: Political Minister Counselor Aubrey Carlson. Reasons 1. 4 (b/d). Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) While denying that Kosovo independence would set any precedent for Taiwan, Chinese experts acknowledge that China's concerns over its own "sovereignty" and "territorial integrity" mean that China will be reluctant to support Kosovo's independence over the objections of Serbia. Views vary on whether, following the result of December 10 troika discussions, China would ever recognize Kosovo if Belgrade did not. One expert said China might be more flexible toward Kosovo following March 2008 presidential elections in Taiwan. End Summary. MFA Circumspect on Kosovo -------------- ¶2. (C) MFA Balkans Division Deputy Director Hua Yafang was coy on Kosovo and would not comment on China's course of action upon the conclusion of Troika negotiations on December ¶10. She told PolOff November 20 that China's position on Kosovo had not changed and China remains hopeful the current Troika negotiations can result in a peaceful outcome satisfactory to all parties. MFA International Organizations Department UN Division Deputy Director Yao Shaojun told PolOff that, while China agrees that the current situation in the Balkans is "unsustainable," China hopes that the "conclusion" of Troika negotiations will be a chance to review progress on the Kosovo issue, not a "deadline." China, Yao said, believes that the problem can only be solved with negotiation and with the agreement of all parties, including Serbia. Kosovo and Taiwan Parallels -------------- ¶3. (C) In conversations with PolOff, our MFA contacts resolutely denied any parallels between Taiwan and Kosovo. National Defense University Professor Cai Jingsong (protect), however, told PolOff that similarities between Kosovo and Taiwan mean that China will certainly support Serbia's opposition to a "unilateral" change of status for Kosovo on December 10. Serbian Political Counselor Aleksandr Jankovic told PolOff November 16 that Chinese MFA officials told him confidentially that Beijing will never recognize Kosovo SIPDIS unless Serbia does, specifically citing Taiwan and the desire not to "set a bad precedent" as the rationale. Jankovic said that Serbia was pressing for a "Hong Kong" type arrangement for Kosovo, which the Chinese government supported. Future Moves -------------- ¶4. (C) Professor Cai was less categorical than Jankovic. He said that China might soften in its stance following March 2008 presidential elections in Taiwan. At that time, he said, China's actions on the international stage will be less scrutinized for signals by Taiwan and are less likely to become "ammunition" for Taiwan politicians to rally support during campaigns. RANDT