PRC-ISRAEL: FM LIVNI PRESSES BEIJING TO SUPPORT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIJING 006938 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/01/2027 TAGS: PARM PREL MNUC ETRD CH IR IS SUBJECT: PRC-ISRAEL: FM LIVNI PRESSES BEIJING TO SUPPORT ACTION ON IRAN Classified By: Political Minister Counselor Aubrey Carlson. Reasons 1.4 (b/d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: According to an Israeli Embassy readout, visiting Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni stressed to Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao and Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi that efforts to achieve international consensus on the way forward with Iran have weakened existing sanctions against the regime. FM Livni described a "regional domino effect" of emboldened extremism among Iran's Arab neighbors and emphasized China's key role in international efforts to deal with the crisis. According to the readout, Premier Wen in response indicated that China feels caught in the middle and believes that China's entreaties to Iran to show flexibility must be matched with the abandonment of attempts to impose "arbitrary" sanctions. Premier Wen said that Iran should be allowed to have nuclear energy technology. FM Yang told FM Livni that China is not opposed to "appropriate pressure" and that Beijing is waiting for the results of the upcoming IAEA report, although he did not say what should be done if the IAEA report fails to show progress. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) Israeli DCM DJ Schneeweiss gave Poloff a readout on the exchanges Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni had with Premier Wen Jiabao and Foreign Minister Yang during her visit to Beijing October 29-30. Other issues were discussed, Schneeweiss said, but the primary purpose of Livni's visit was to urge Chinese support for tougher actions on Iran in light of its ongoing nuclear activities. Livni: China Must Help Deal with the Iranian "Bully" -------------- -------------- ¶3. (C) According the Schneeweiss, FM Livni stressed to Premier Wen and FM Yang that efforts to achieve international consensus on the way forward with Iran have weakened existing sanctions against the regime. FM Livni described for Wen and Yang a "regional domino effect" of emboldened extremism among Iran's Arab neighbors because of the inability of the international community to constrain Iran's nuclear ambitions. She told her Chinese interlocutors that Arab countries are watching the attitude of China and the international community toward Iran very closely and that if they conclude Iran will be allowed to continue to be a regional "bully," they may feel the need to "stand up to the bully." The resulting regional instability would not be in China's interest. ¶4. (C) FM Livni stressed in her meetings that the critical point in Iran's nuclear program will not be actually creating a nuclear weapon, but only mastering the technology to do so, and noted that this could happen before the end of the year. In what Schneeweiss called "taking the 'responsible stakeholder' argument one step further," Livni emphasized that China has an obligation to act because of its central role in international efforts to deal with the crisis. She noted that UNSC Resolutions 1737 and 1747 are working and there is evidence of the beginnings of internal debate within Iran's leadership. FM Livni stressed that Iran is sensitive to world opinion and, "unlike the DPRK," takes seriously its legitimacy in the world. FM Yang: PRC Not Opposed to "Appropriate Pressure" -------------- -------------- ¶5. (C) FM Yang reportedly replied with familiar talking points: China believes in the need to maintain the integrity of the international nonproliferation regime and is opposed to Iran developing nuclear weapons. He said that China has called on Iran to fulfill its obligations under existing resolutions and is not opposed to "appropriate pressure." He said that China does not want to see further turmoil in the Middle East, suggesting that tougher actions against Iran could themselves be destabilizing. China, FM Yang said, is engaging in its own way. He added that President Hu Jintao implored President Ahmadinejad at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Bishkek in August to "correctly evaluate" the position of the international community, display flexibility, fulfill Iran's obligations and "promote the matter in an appropriate way," adding that FM Yang and State Councilor Tang Jiaxuan echoed this message to Iranian envoy Mostafa Pur-Mohammadi in September. PRC Will Play a "Serious Role" -------------- BEIJING 00006938 002 OF 002 ¶6. (C) Per the readout, FM Yang called the path forward "difficult" but stressed that existing sanctions are having an effect. FM Livni replied that any progress we have seen so far is the result of the dual-track approach, with pressure from the UN Security Council working in concert with IAEA actions. FM Yang replied that if this month's IAEA report shows progress, then the international community should decide the next steps forward. FM Yang said China will play a "serious role in that discussion," Schneeweiss noted, but neglected to say what the international community should do if the IAEA report fails to show progress. Premier Wen: China Stuck in the Middle -------------- ¶7. (C) In his meeting with FM Livni, Premier Wen reiterated the Chinese position of opposing an Iran armed with nuclear weapons, maintaining the international nonproliferation regime, and ensuring a stable and peaceful Middle East. Premier Wen reportedly told Livni that China feels caught in the middle, saying that China's on-going efforts to convince Iran to stop its enrichment activities and negotiate in good faith must be balanced by the United States and EU abandoning their push for "arbitrary" sanctions. Schneeweiss reported that Premier Wen added, "If Iran feels cornered, it may lash out." Iranian Nuclear Power OK; Use Peaceful Means -------------- ¶8. (C) Premier Wen told F Livni that Iran has the right to develop nuclear energy in accordance with international law and under IAEA supervision, adding that the focus of the international community should be on returning to negotiations. Livni replied that dialogue can only help if Iran is willing to work with the international community in good faith, which Israel believes is not the case; rather, Iran's current goal is to "fool" the international community to buy time to master nuclear weapons technology. Both Premier Wen and FM Yang reportedly underscored the need to resolve the situation through "peaceful means" and stressed the limited role of sanctions. FM Livni rejoined that sanctions are a peaceful means for dealing with Iran. Premier Wen said that he understands Israel's concern on the Iran nuclear issue and acknowledged that Ahmadinejad's statements denying Israel's right to exist are "ridiculous." Aborted Berlin Meeting -------------- ¶9. (C) Meeting with FM Livni, FM Yang described the attempted October 17 meeting on the Iran nuclear issue of the P5-plus-1 Political Directors in Berlin as an "American proposal," and that sometimes "scheduling difficulties are natural." FM Yang noted that China would be represented at the next meeting (November 2 in London) at the Director General level. FM Livni stressed that during the back-and-forth over attendance at the Berlin meeting, Iran has continued to pursue its nuclear development. Positive Exchange, but No Movement on Sanctions -------------- -- ¶10. (C) Despite the frankness of the exchange, Schneeweiss noted, the atmosphere in FM Livni's meetings was positive. The scheduled 25-minute meeting with Premier Wen lasted almost an hour. Still, he said, China did not show any new flexibility in its opposition to additional sanctions. Randt