INFLATION SPIKE GETTING ATTENTION FROM LEADERSHIP, MEDIA,

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIJING 005578 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ECON EFIN PGOV ETRD EINV CH SUBJECT: INFLATION SPIKE GETTING ATTENTION FROM LEADERSHIP, MEDIA, AND PUBLIC SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (SBU) With CPI inflation hitting a ten-year high of 5.6 percent in July, there is now widespread concern among the public, extensive coverage in the media, and evident attention from China's senior leadership to rising prices. The spike over recent months is generally viewed as resulting from short-term food price shocks, but some economists are also drawing attention to excess liquidity and other structural factors that could lead to a longer-term and more chronic problem. Premier Wen Jiabao has become publicly involved, in particular engaging in a series of activities related to addressing rising pork prices. Septel lays out the continuum between viewing the inflation issue as a supply-shock problem, a monetary policy challenge, or both. END SUMMARY INFLATION HITS 5.6 PERCENT IN JULY -------------- ¶2. (SBU) CPI inflation accelerated to 5.6 percent year-on-year in July to mark China's largest increase in prices since February 1997. The July figures were prefaced by a steady build up in CPI inflation through the first half of 2007, with June registering a 33-month high at 4.4 percent. Prior to 2007, the CPI had been holding steady at 1.5 percent per year in 2005 and 2006. Many analysts now project China's CPI to reach between 3.5 and 4 percent this year. ¶3. (SBU) Core inflation remains quite low, however, and non-food prices increased only 0.9 percent in July year-on-year after rising 1.0 percent in June. Food prices surged 15.4 percent in July, accounting for the lion's share of the CPI increase (approximately one-third of China's CPI basket is derived from food prices). In particular, rising demand for pork (for which the price increased by 45.2 percent) and eggs (30.6 percent) has driven food inflation. Corn prices also have increased dramatically with rising demand for livestock feed and ethanol for biofuels. In addition, vegetable prices increased 18.7 percent in July following recent flooding in South China. INFLATION UNDER THE MEDIA MICROSCOPE -------------- ¶4. (SBU) The CPI increases have attracted increasing media attention with inflation-related articles running on a daily basis. The July CPI surge was a front-page headline in the Beijing News (Xin Jing Bao),with a full page devoted to coverage on the inside. In one article, Beijing University Economics Professor Song Guoqing stated that the CPI increase demonstrates an obvious trend towards overheating in the economy. Xin Jing Bao had first warned in a May 30 article that food price increases were beginning to exert inflationary pressure. A July 31 editorial in the English-language China Daily stated that policymakers are increasingly challenged on how to strike a balance between stabilizing prices and refraining from undue market intervention. GOVERNMENT FOCUSED ON MANAGING EXPECTATIONS -------------- ¶5. (SBU) In order to address the public's concern, the Chinese Government has sought to reassure consumers during July and August. Warning that "inflationary risks are trending higher," the PBOC's 2nd Quarter report pledged to moderately tighten monetary policy in order to keep a lid on prices and prevent expectations of rising inflation. Tackling the supply side, a State Council circular on August 2 aimed to boost pork supplies and mitigate food inflation by establishing a subsidy system for sows and providing sow insurance. (Note: The General Manager of New Hope Group, one of China's largest livestock feed processors, told Econoff on August 7 that the regulation would have a positive impact on pig production. End Note.) ¶6. (SBU) The State Council also took measures to offset costs for the poorest citizens in both urban and rural areas, issuing new regulations on the minimum standard of living allowance (dibao), raising the subsidy in urban areas by RMB 15 (USD 2) in July and then announcing in August that the benefits under the new national dibao program for rural areas should take local food prices into account. Ma Kai, Chairman of the National Development Reform Commission (NDRC),however, tempered expectations that welfare subsidies would be sufficient to offset rising prices, stating at a work conference on July 30 that prices would continue to rise in the face of demand pressures. BEIJING 00005578 002 OF 003 PREMIER WEN'S PERSONAL INVOLVEMENT -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Premier Wen Jiabao has become increasingly focused on CPI concerns in the months since the pork price shock was first reported. With a view towards maintaining social stability, Wen's activities have focused on pork prices and have included the following: --On May 26, Wen visited pork production facilities and markets in Shaanxi Province and met with provincial officials to discuss price control efforts. --On June 13 and again on July 25, Wen chaired separate State Council Working Conferences where he focused on stabilizing pork market supply. --Wen made front page news after he visited two Beijing agricultural wholesale markets on August 4 and stated that the CPI increase has caused concerns for all walks of life. ¶8. (SBU) According to Wang Tongsan, Director of the Institute of Quantitative and Technical Economics at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS),Wen's interest in the issue has been important to demonstrate to the public that the leadership is concerned about rising prices. The current preoccupation of most government officials on their own political futures in the run-up to the National Party Congress, however, suggests that the government is not likely to implement new measures to curb inflation until November, stated Wang. FIVE REASONS TO BE CONCERNED -------------- ¶9. (SBU) Wang agreed with other analysts that the pork price spike is temporary and serves only as a trigger for the recent CPI increase. However, he also pointed to structural factors that could lead to a "more and more serious" long-term inflation problem. He discussed five underlying economic factors that raise concern: --cost-push inflation: as indicated by the increase in the CPI now being higher than the PPI for the first time in recent memory; --demand-pull inflation: as demonstrated by excess growth in the money supply and residents' income rising faster than the GDP growth rate for the first time in several years; --energy savings and pollution reduction targets: these will increase the cost of production; --rapid growth in the economy: (especially investment growth) GDP grew at 11.9 percent in the first half of the year, a rate generally viewed as above longer-term potential. Investment growth was more than double GDP, at approximately 25 percent; and --the rise in international prices for oil, grain, and milk as well as other staple products. ¶10. (SBU) According to Wang, CPI inflation will not break through 5 percent in 2007 but may reach 4 percent. He referred to China as "entering an inflationary period," which he said would become a problem for the Central Government's macroeconomic regulation efforts. Wang dismissed the argument that the low core inflation figure indicates that the inflation problem is limited to food products, stating that the CPI reflects price increases that impact the lives of average Chinese and thereby affect social stability. It is also important to acknowledge that the CPI as an instrument does not accurately capture all inflation in the economy, he said. Asset prices (especially stocks and real estate) are also causes for concern, he said. ¶11. (SBU) Wang expressed concern for inflation's impact on China's rebalancing efforts, but he does not believe there will be a significant influence on export prices. He instead reiterated the oft-heard view that China needs to increase domestic consumption by increasing residents' incomes. Raising domestic consumption in rural areas will be particularly important for minimizing the impact of price increases. Subsidies to farmers, however, might be counterproductive as they cause consumption demand to rise and trigger inflation in the countryside. INVESTMENT BANKS INTERESTED BUT NOT CONCERNED...YET -------------- -------------- BEIJING 00005578 003 OF 003 ¶12. (SBU) UBS, JP Morgan, and Citibank all have expressed interest in China's CPI in recent weeks, but none have said China currently has a persistnt inflation problem. With most of the inflatin to date coming from meat and eggs -- both commodities that are susceptible to temporary supply shocks due to disease -- the evidence points to a short-lived inflationary episode, wrote UBS's Jonathan Anderson in a recent research note. After the July CPI figures were announced on August 13, JP Morgan's Asian Economic Research team, supporting a widespread view, stated that the spurt in food prices might keep headline CPI elevated in the near term but is not likely to persist. ¶13. (SBU) In question is whether the CPI figures merely reflect a supply side shock or suggest a deeper problem brewing related to excess liquidity entering the economy. The economists are by and large focusing on the former and are not arguing that China's robust GDP growth (11.9 percent in 1H07) or rapidly accumulating foreign exchange reserves (over USD 1.3 trillion) suggest that overheating or an increasing money supply are behind a new inflationary trend. Several analysts stated, however, that problems may be on the horizon. Goldman Sachs observed after the People's Bank of China (PBOC) issued its 2nd Quarter Monetary Policy Report that recent anecdotal evidence suggests that inflationary pressures are spreading rapidly into other consumption items. Credit Suisse also cautioned that high headline inflation potentially could impact inflationary expectations and eventually affect non-food items in the long run. COMMENT -------------- ¶14. (SBU) Post will continue to follow China's CPI story as it unfolds with future reporting to focus on the impact of price increases in rural areas, the potential for exporting inflation, and the monetary policy response. Chinese leaders clearly are concerned not only about the impact of price increases on macroeconomic regulation but also potential ramifications for social stability. For now, the food price spike appears to have triggered short-term inflation, but price fluctuations over the long-term will continue to merit attention. END COMMENT. PICCUTA