CHINA/SED: SECRETARY PAULSON AND NDRC CHAIRMAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 BEIJING 005556 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS STATE PASS USTR FOR STRATFORD STATE PASS CEA STATE PASS EPA WASHDC STATE PASS FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD FOR JOHNSON; SAN FRANCISCO FRB FOR CURRAN/LUNG; NEW YORK FRB FOR DAGES/CLARK STATE PASS USDOE WASHDC FOR DOE OIC/FREDRIKSEN, OFFICE OF THE SECRETARY, MWILLIAMSON TREASURY FOR OASIA/ISA DOHNER, OFFICE OF THE SECRETARY USDOC FOR 4220/ITA/MAC/CMCQUEEN/HAMROCK USDOC FOR 1003/ITA/OUS/OC USDOC FOR 6310/ITA/TD/OIEM/KMURPHY/HBURROUGHS/KHOLLANDE R USDOC FOR 6000/ITA/TD/RPACE E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/21/2017 TAGS: ENRG EPET PREL SENV EINV CH SUBJECT: CHINA/SED: SECRETARY PAULSON AND NDRC CHAIRMAN MEET TO DISCUSS SED, MONETARY, AND INVESTMENT ISSUES Classified By: CDA DAN PICCUTA; REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D) -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) BEGIN SUMMARY: Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and National Development and Reform Commission Chairman Ma Kai met on August 1, 2007, to discuss the Strategic Economic Dialogue, currency reform, and investment policy. Secretary Paulson emphasized the need to make the Strategic Economic Dialogue more strategic in nature and suggested that energy, environmental, and climate change issues be discussed during the next dialogue. Chairman Ma agreed with the need to alter the course of the dialogue, but demurred on the inclusion of the climate change issue in the talks. Secretary Paulson said that China's growing economic and trade influence makes Beijing's proper valuation of the renminbi critical. The current imblance between the renminbi and Euro highlights the difficulty of this task. Chairman Ma noted that the renminbi has shown increasing flexibility since revaluation began more than a year and a half ago. However, Beijing must be careful not to damage China's economy by appreciating too quickly. Secretary Paulson closed the meeting by encouraging transparency during development of China's new investment and merger and acquisition policies. END SUMMARY. -------------- PAULSON: GOOD TALK WITH MADAME WU ON SED -------------- ¶2. (C) Secretary Paulson began the meeting with National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) Chairman Ma Kai by summarizing his discussion with Chinese Vice-Premier Wu Yi on July 31. They agreed the Strategic Economic Dialogue (SED) should become more strategically focused by covering fewer topics and aspiring to only a handful of deliverables. Bilateral dialogues, such as the Joint Commission on Commerce and Trade (JCCT) and the Joint Economic Commission (JEC), need to better address tactical, detailed economic issues in order for this to occur. Secretary Paulson noted Madame Wu agreed that growing Congressional criticism of the value of renminbi (RMB),recent high-profile consumer product safety issues, and Chinese ties to Sudan and Iran are placing pressure on the SED to achieve tangible results. They also discussed energy and environmental issues, the respective investment climates in China and the United States, and the importance of balanced Chinese economic growth, according to Secretary Paulson. SIPDIS -------------- MA: AVOID SED BECOMING TOO TACTICAL -------------- ¶3. (C) Chairman Ma agreed that future SED meetings should be more strategic in nature. The SED risked becoming too focused on day-to-day, tactical issues unless changes were made. Chairman Ma noted that the NDRC has numerous bilateral dialogues with the United States Government, such as the Energy Policy Dialogue (EPD) with the Department of Energy, the Oil and Gas Industry Forum (OGIF) with the Commerce Department, and the State-NDRC Dialogue. These mechanisms should play a greater role managing more detailed economic issues. Despite his concern about the future direction of the SED, Chairman Ma observed that SED II produced positive results with consensus achieved on a number of important issues. Even on issues where the two sides could not achieve agreements, Washington and Beijing gained a better understanding of one another's positions which should facilitate future discussions. Chairman Ma also stated that he is pleased Secretary Paulson and Madame Wu are discussing issues surrounding economic globalization. -------------- -------------- PAULSON: CLIMATE CHANGE, ENERGY, AND ENVIRONMENT LOOK LIKE BEIJING 00005556 002 OF 004 GOOD SED III TOPICS -------------- -------------- ¶4. (C) Secretary Paulson stated that given Congressional pressure, it is important to find issues where substantial progress can be made at SED III. Economic issues surrounding climate change, energy, and the environment appear to be good candidates for such topics. Secretary Paulson noted that the United States has had great success in reducing SO2 and NO2 levels through technological advances and use of market mechanisms. Washington wants to use the SED to share its experiences and help Beijing make similar gains. Secretary Paulson highlighted the SED II agreement to explore reduction or elimination of tariffs on environmental protection and energy efficiency goods and services. Washington hopes Beijing will work to build upon this agreement. Eliminating or reducing such tariffs would go a long way in gaining China,s access to critical technology at the lowest possible cost. Secretary Paulson closed by noting that President Bush plans to hold a climate change summit in the United States this fall and emphasizing that China's attendance would be very helpful. -------------- -------------- MA: AGREE ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT GOOD SED TOPICS... -------------- -------------- ¶5. (C) Chairman Ma concurred that the agreement to explore reduction or elimination of the tariffs is a positive development. Access to more advanced technology would help China better address its environmental and energy efficiency challenges. However, Beijing views tariff reduction as a multilateral endeavor and further progress must account for this position. Chairman Ma stated that there is great potential for cooperation on energy issues given the common interests and challenges facing our two countries in this area. Significant progress has already been made during the recent EPD and OGIF talks. Chairman Ma noted that bilateral nuclear energy cooperation has been very successful during the past year with Beijing signing contracts valued at 3.27 billion USD with Westinghouse for that company to build nuclear power plants in China. -------------- -------------- ...BUT BEIJING IS LUKEWARM TO CLIMATE CHANGE IDEA -------------- -------------- ¶6. (C) Chairman Ma stated that Beijing places great importance on environmental protection and addressing climate change. This is a result of China's policy to put its people's welfare above other considerations, rather than being a reaction to internationa pressure. Chairman Ma noted that Beijing ha taken significant steps to curb greenhouse gases (GHG) and is the first developing country to develop and adopt a GHG reduction policy. China is a Kyoto signatory and a member of th United Nations Climate Change regime. Althogh China is willing to participate in the summit and further explore discussion of climate change issues during the SED, such talks would merely supplement Kyoto and other existing multilateral regimes rather than pushing them aside. Chairman Ma stated that such discussions must begin from a starting point of China's shared, but differentiated climate change responsibilities as a developing country. -------------- - PAULSON: IMPOSSIBLE TO HOLD ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT TALKS WITHOUT ADDRESSING CLIMATE CHANGE ISSUES -------------- - ¶7. (C) Secretary Paulson noted Beijing's position on climate change discussions, but stated that it is impossible to discuss energy and environmental issues without touching on climate change. This is not an effort to supplant other bilateral dialogues or multilateral regimes, but instead a BEIJING 00005556 003 OF 004 simple recognition of the intertwined relationship between these topics. Secretary Paulson stated that he is well aware of China's position on its role as a developing country in addressing climate change. However, the proposed summit is a unique opportunity for the world's 15 largest economies to make significant progress on climate change issues. The opportunity should not be squandered, said Secretary Paulson. -------------- --- PAULSON, MA EXCHANGE VIEWS ON CURRENCY VALUATION -------------- --- ¶8. (C) In response to a question from Chairman Ma, Secretary Paulson stated that the market determines the value of the United States dollar (USD) through economic principles. Washington prefers a strong USD given its domestic economic benefits, but value must be driven by the market. Secretary Paulson noted that the United States economy is currently experiencing slower growth than in previous years. However, the rate of growth is sustainable and positive due to Washington's adherence to market fundamentals. Secretary Paulson stated that even as the United States economy has cooled, other countries, such as Japan, are experiencing faster growth rates. This has promoted increased exports from the United States to those countries as reflected in last quarter's trade statistics. ¶9. (C) Chairman Ma stated that Beijing has a keen interest in the value of the USD. Beijing understands Washington's interest in maintaining a strong USD, but concurs that more exports from the United States is a positive development. Chairman Ma said that reforms relating to the renminbi (RMB) exchange rate are a gradual process. The RMB has become increasingly flexible since revaluation began more than a year and a half ago. Beijing must be careful not to appreciate the RMB too fast to avoid damage to China's economy, however. Chairman Ma said that using China's trade surplus as evidence that the RMB is significantly undervalued is unfair. ¶10. (C) Secretary Paulson said China's growing economic and trade influence make proper valuation of the RMB an important variable in the global economic market. Beijing risks making the global exchange rate mechanism less effective in dealing with economic and trade imbalances by not using the market to determine the value of the RMB. Secretary Paulson stated that Beijing must recognize this and make every effort to ensure the RMB is properly valued. China faces a major challenge in this task. For example, while it is clear the RMB and USD are closely linked by Beijing, the RMB's relationship with the Euro clearly does not reflect economic fundamentals. Secretary Paulson noted that China has made great strides in joining the global trading market, but integration of the RMB into the global currency market is clearly lagging behind. -------------- -- PAULSON CALLS FOR TRANSPARENT INVESTMENT POLICY -------------- -- ¶11. (C) Secretary Paulson closed the meeting by requesting that Beijing give full transparency during its development of new investment and merger and acquisition policies. Chairman Ma stated that Beijing will incorporate lessons learned from other countries, including the United States, during development of these policies. Beijing has carefully studied the CFIUS process and in particular its impact on CNOOC's failed attempt to acquire Unocal. Secretary Paulson noted that President Bush and Congress are improving the CFIUS process through new legislation and an impending Executive Order. These measures will be available for public comment and Washington encourages Beijing to do the same for its new policies. Chairman Ma stated that similarly, Beijing will solicit public opinion before implementing its new policies. BEIJING 00005556 004 OF 004 -------------- PARTICIPANTS AND CLEARANCE -------------- ¶12. (U) United States Government participants: Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson Ambassador Clark T. Randt Ambassador Alan Holmer, Treasury Department Taiya Smith, Treasury Department Daniel Wright, Treasury Department Dave McCormick, National Security Council Brookly McLaughlin, Treasury Department Embassy Interpreter Embassy Notetaker ¶13. (U) Chinese Government participants: NDRC Chairman Ma Kai Vice-Chairman Zhang Xiaoqiang, NDRC Ma Xin, NDRC Zhao Xiaoping, NDRC Kong Linglong, NDRC Shen Changyou, NDRC NDRC Interpreter NDRC Notetaker ¶14. (U) Secretary Paulson's delegation has cleared this cable. Piccuta