AFTER THE JAPAN ELECTIONS, PRC CONTACTS FORESEE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIJING 005140 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/07/2032 TAGS: PREL PGOV ENRG ECON SENV CH JA SUBJECT: AFTER THE JAPAN ELECTIONS, PRC CONTACTS FORESEE CONTINUED STABLE RELATIONS, FOR NOW REF: A. BEIJING 1841 ¶B. BEIJING 2481 ¶C. BEIJING 2680 Classified By: Minister Counselor for Political Affairs Aubrey Carlson. Reasons 1.4 (b/d). Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) Following the Liberal Democratic Party's (LDP) upper house election defeat on July 29, most PRC officials and analysts we spoke with predicted stability in the Sino-Japanese relationship. The election results themselves will not have much impact on the current positive trend in bilateral ties, but the prospect of PM Abe (or his successor) visiting the Yasukuni Shrine to placate his political base remains a concern. Our contacts disagreed on the impact of a hypothetical Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) government, balancing the reality of symbiotic economic relations against a perceived greater DPJ support for Taiwan. PM Abe's planned visit to China in the fall will strengthen the relationship. Plans are underway to hold a high-level economic dialogue before the end of 2007, with a date to be set after Abe's Cabinet reshuffle. Embassy contacts are pessimistic on the historical issue, anxious about Taiwan and uncertain about progress on the East China Sea disputes. End Summary. Reactions to the Election: Domestic Woes at Fault -------------- -------------- ¶2. (C) Japanese domestic issues were solely responsible for the LDP's upper house election defeat on July 29, Embassy contacts told Poloff in a series of meetings on July 30 and August 3. Public scandals and unpopular educational and constitutional reform proposals accounted for the loss, said MFA Japan Division Deputy Director Lu Guijun on August 3. Foreign policy did not factor into the election, he added. On the contrary, the strengthening Sino-Japanese relationship is one of PM Abe's major political achievements, and "the 30 percent of the vote that his party did garner is largely due to this improvement." Jin Linbo, a Japan scholar at the MFA-affiliated think tank China Institute of International Studies (CIIS),expressed similar sentiments on July 30. The results were far worse than expected, he said, but the trouncing was due to domestic issues rather than Abe's China policy. Other scholarly contacts also dismissed the notion that relations with China played any role in the election outcome. Little Impact on Sino-Japanese Ties for Now -------------- ¶3. (C) In the near term, most of our contacts predicted stability in the relationship, envisioning a Cabinet reshuffle rather than Abe's resignation. The MFA's Lu, who was in Manila for the ARF earlier in the week, remained especially sanguine about bilateral ties. The results will not have much bearing on the basic stability and the improved direction of the relationship, and "relations will continue to develop," Lu said. The outcome will not influence Sino-Japanese relations because neither side wants the relationship to sour, Peking University (PKU) Professor Liang Yunxiang affirmed on August 3. In fact, he said he believes the election could actually benefit China if it results in LDP restraint in the areas of constitutional reform and overseas troop deployments. ¶4. (C) CIIS's Jin was more cautious, emphasizing that an environment of "instability" now exists in which Abe may increasingly bow to his domestic constituency to maintain power. Abe's core supporters will encourage Yasukuni Shrine visits, which would reverse the recent improvement in bilateral ties. Barring that, Jin foresaw no change in China's policy toward Japan. China will be careful not to be seen as overtly supporting Abe, lest that complicate his predicament. Major steps forward in the relationship are unlikely in this unstable environment, Jin said. ¶5. (C) Contacts disagreed on the impact of a hypothetical DPJ takeover of Japan's lower house. If the DPJ comes to power in Tokyo, it will not have a major effect on the bilateral relationship, because both the DPJ and LDP support the moderating influence of the U.S.-Japan alliance, PKU's Liang said. Liang also cited the "symbiotic" economic relationship. Japan scholar Jin was more pessimistic, warning that the DPJ's desire to differentiate itself from the LDP and its support for Taiwan could cause major ripples in Sino-Japanese ties. The DPJ will almost certainly be harsher on China, he said. Next Steps for Beijing and Tokyo BEIJING 00005140 002 OF 002 -------------- ¶6. (C) PM Abe still plans to visit China later this year and "take another step forward in consolidating the relationship," declared the MFA's Lu. He emphasized the importance of 2007 as the 35th anniversary of PRC-Japan relations and told Poloff that there will be thousands of "reciprocal tourist trips," cultural exchanges and even a "Japanese Culture Day" in September. The Chinese Government wants to help Abe's standing at home by inviting him to visit China soon, Professor Liang asserted. Abe is a known quantity to the Chinese leadership, and the possibility that any successor would visit Yasukuni Shrine makes the current PM all the more attractive, he said. ¶7. (C) Before the end of the year, China and Japan will inaugurate their high-level economic exchange, confirmed MFA Japan Division Deputy Director Lu. China wants to hold the talks as soon as possible, but Japan has delayed setting a date pending the upcoming Cabinet reorganization. The two sides have not yet decided on concrete topics for discussion, but likely subjects include macroeconomic policy, possible joint ventures, energy conservation and environmental protection, among others, Lu stated. Old Problems Persist: History, Taiwan, East China Sea -------------- -------------- ¶8. (C) Our academic and analyst contacts were pessimistic on the WWII historical legacy issue. This issue is not solvable in the near term, Japan scholar Jin stated. Anger and resentment toward Japan is real and not drummed up by the Chinese Government for political gains, he said. Overcoming this obstacle will not be easy. The China-Japan Joint History Dialogue is not likely to make substantive progress, because neither side has discussed the issues at the heart of the dispute, PKU's Liang commented. The Chinese leadership is concerned about Japan increasingly looking outward militarily, Li Dunqiu of the State Council Development Research Center (SCDRC) said on August 3. Japan is "selfish" and "very dangerous," and its "expansionist mindset" has not changed, he told Poloff. The Japanese strategy is to wait until the time is right to expand its influence outward. Li, who makes policy recommendations to China's State Council, confided that "many people on the State Council feel this way in their heart, but would not say it to foreigners." ¶9. (C) The Taiwan issue, itself part of the a historical legacy of Sino-Japanese ties, remains a wild card in the relationship, according to our contacts. There have been slight shifts in Japanese policy to allow more semi-official and official visits of Taiwan leaders to Japan, noted Lu of the MFA. Lu was confident of future stability between Beijing and Tokyo, but he saw Taiwan as the greatest long-term threat to that stability. Li of the SCDRC took a harder line: Japan is supporting Taiwan independence "behind our back." ¶10. (C) Embassy contacts noted a lack of substantive progress on the East China Sea issue. The ninth round of energy exploration talks concluded in June without resolution, and another round has not been scheduled. China cannot yet see the way forward on the East China Sea territorial disputes and needs to do "more analysis," MFA's Lu admitted to Poloff. During Premier Wen Jiabao's April visit to Tokyo, he and PM Abe agreed to develop a plan for joint exploration by the fall. Both sides will be under increased pressure to reach a solution, possibly even before Abe visits China. The territorial issues are more serious now than they were in the 1980s and 1990s, said Li of SCDRC. Nonetheless, China wants to avoid conflict in that area, declared CIIS's Jin. The Chinese Government's recent strategy has been to "economize" the sovereignty issue, said Professor Liang, supporting joint energy exploration without overtly discussing territorial claims. RANDT