PDAS STEPHENS' CHINA EXCHANGES ON NEAPSM

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIJING 004899 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: AFTER KOREAN REUNIFICATION TAGS: PREL PGOV PARM MNUC KN KS RS JA CH SUBJECT: PDAS STEPHENS' CHINA EXCHANGES ON NEAPSM Classified By: Political Minister Counselor Aubrey Carlson. Reasons 1. 4 (b/d). ¶1. (C) Summary: China views the Northeast Asia Peace and Security Mechanism (NEAPSM) as a positive future outgrowth of the Six-Party Talks to resolve problems and promote cooperation within the region, senior MFA officials told EAP PDAS Stephens July 25. Responding to PDAS Stephens' presentation of initial U.S. thinking on core NEAPSM principles, MFA officials offered their own preliminary ideas, which included: 1) denuclearization is a prerequisite; 2) nuclear nonproliferation in the region is key; 3) existing relationships and alliances should not harm third-party interests; and, 4) the Taiwan issue must be excluded. Regarding potential Four-Party Korean peace talks, the Chinese noted North Korea is not yet ready, Moscow would not want to be excluded, and South Korea is concerned North Korea will prefer one-on-one talks with the United States. End Summary. ¶2. (C) EAP PDAS Stephens visited Beijing July 25-26 to present initial U.S. thinking and receive Chinese views on goals and principles of a Northeast Asia peace and security mechanism (NEAPSM). In meetings with MFA DG for Asian Affairs Hu Zhengyue and DG for Policy Planning Ma Zhaoxu, she explained that while the critical, initial focus remains denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, Six-Party members should begin to focus on a more long-range, strategic vision for the region. Stephens made clear that the NEAPSM and a Korean Peninsula peace process were separate, but parallel processes, both subject to the pace of denuclearization. The NEAPSM working group should develop a clear vision for the region and develop core principles that deputy ministers could later endorse. ¶3. (C) PDAS Stephens offered as food for thought U.S. views on key points of the core principles that should guide the working group: denuclearization and peace on the Korean Peninsula; nonproliferation; recognition of the stabilizing role of existing alliances; eventual normalization of bilateral relations among the parties; transparency; confidence building measures and peaceful settlement of disputes; mechanisms to counter common threats; and clear terms of participation, leaving open the possibility for other states to join in the future. MFA Views on the Regional Peace Mechanism -------------- ¶4. (C) Asian Affairs DG Hu offered some initial thoughts on core principles for building a regional peace mechanism. The most pressing regional issue remains the Korean nuclear issue. The groundwork laid by the Six-Party process is the most acceptable channel to all parties involved. The Northeast Asia Peace and Security Mechanism (NEAPSM) should be a natural outcome of the Six-Party Talks. The process will require mutual understanding and support and should be gradual, balanced and transparent. Regional security required denuclearization, replacement of the armistice agreement with a peace mechanism, normalization of relations and increased cooperation (economic, energy, etc.). A specific goal should be to encourage the DPRK to pursue a policy of reform and opening, resulting in the integration of North Korea in the international mainstream. Korean peninsula denuclearization and the preservation of that denuclearized status thereafter were required to build a regional peace and security mechanism. There should also be no nuclear proliferation in the region and no possession of nuclear weapons except by the P5. rogress should not be predicated on any recogition of North Korea as a nuclear-armed country. Any Cold War mentality should be done away with; no new clubs or groups should be created. The mechanism need not replace existing bilateral or multilateral arrangements, but neither should such arrangements harm the interests of third parties. Existing arrangements could be a cause of concern for some parties. Finally, the mechanism should not touch upon the Taiwan issue, and Taiwan should have no righ to take part. ¶5. (C) Asked his views on Norheast Asia security and aNEAPSM, Policy Planning DG Ma said that China views the September 19, 2005 Six-Party Talks Joint Statement as the "bible" on this subject, outlining its key provisions: denuclearization, acting in accordance with UN principles and international norms, respecting sovereignty and existing peacefully together, normalization, economic cooperation, making efforts for a lasting peace, finding ways and means to promote security cooperation, and the principle of consensus. He said we need to consider how this "new baby" will relate BEIJING 00004899 002 OF 003 to the Six-Party Talks, other multilateral and bilateral relationships and the Council for Security Cooperation in Asia Pacific (CSCAP). Most of all, he wondered about the prospect of competition with the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF). However, Ma said that any new forum's ultimate purpose should be to maintain long-lasting peace, security and prosperity. It would need a comprehensive agenda of politics, economics and security, he said. Positives, and Potential Obstacles -------------- ¶6. (C) China is glad that the United States is "leading us to a new stage of consideration" on a future peace and security mechanism, and doing so through a process of consensus, DG Ma continued. He called for a "sense of history" when discussing this prospective mechanism, with an understanding that Northeast Asia is "special," one of the most complicated regions in the world and still feeling the legacy of the Cold War. The idea of a mechanism is more than 20 years old and has been mostly academic up to this point, he said. DG Ma added that the Six-Party Talks are the "most important vehicle for promoting peace in the region" and serve to underscore our common goals of peace, development, and cooperation. ¶7. (C) DG Ma said China desires a consensus-based system with mutual trust and benefit, replacing Cold War-era zero-sum games with "win-win" scenarios. Common interests would be the foundation of the mechanism and all Six Parties should be included as members, including North Korea. DG Ma noted that China wants to see gradual progress toward this mechanism, maintaining continuity and without a "great leap forward." He thanked PDAS Stephens, saying that China values what the United States has done on this issue, but cautioned he cannot overestimate the difficulties ahead, adding that it will be a "long march." Four-Party Peace Talks -------------- ¶8. (C) Moscow does not want to be excluded and will not view attempts to hold Four-Party Talks on a Korean Peninsula peace regime positively, according to DG Hu. Moscow is ready to be a leader within the Six-Party process and would like to see a session hosted outside Beijing. DG Hu told Stephens that after her upcoming visit to Moscow, he looks forward to hearing about Russia's reaction to a regional peace mechanism. ¶9. (C) South Korea is concerned that North Korea prefers one-on-one talks with the United States. The United States and China should work to alleviate such misgivings, DG Hu urged. PDAS Stephens said that the two Koreas should lead discussions on the peace treaty and that Beijing and Washington should play supporting roles. It is too early to start Four-Party talks, both agreed. Denuclearization remains the priority. Hu said he does not believe that North Korea is ready for Four-Party Talks; the DPRK is more interested in tangible improvements in its relationship with the United States. Japan -------------- ¶10. (C) China would like to see normalized relations among all the nations in the region. DG Hu urged the United States to press Japan to move the Six-Party process forward while discussing normalization simultaneously. Japan should make a greater contribution to the Six-Party process and the goal of denuclearization, DG Hu said. Chinese Scholars on Regional Security -------------- ¶11. (C) Over dinner hosted by the Charge, Chinese academics praised the action-for-action principle and highlighted the need for simultaneous progress along both the denuclearization and normalization tracks of the Six-Party process before a regional peace and security mechanism can develop. Some criticized the U.S. insistence on North Korean denuclearization as a precondition for United States-DPRK normalization. Zhang Yanling of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences argued that if we wait for complete, verified denuclearization, "we'll never get anywhere." Yu Meihua of the China Reform Forum (who is anti-American and pro-DPRK) questioned the sincerity of Washington's commitment to denuclearization, claiming many North Koreans believe the United States does not actually want normalized relations and BEIJING 00004899 003 OF 003 is simply using the prospect to bait the DPRK into abandoning its nuclear weapons. ¶12. (C) Other academics present took a more positive view of the potential for progress and suggested some principles for developing a regional peace and security mechanism. Zha Daojiong of People's University stressed that any future Northeast Asian cooperative security institution must be careful to identify specific issues to address and avoid setting too broad or ambiguous an agenda. North Korean economic and energy security would be a logical starting point, he suggested. Zha also highlighted the importance of including Mongolia in the peace and security mechanism at an early date, arguing that this would provide a valuable example to North Korea, showing that "small, weak, poor countries" can cooperate on an even footing with larger, more powerful states by adopting constructive policies. ¶13. (U) PDAS Stephens cleared this cable. PICCUTA