MILITARY THINK TANKERS STRESS TAIWAN CONCERNS TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIJING 000399 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/17/2027 TAGS: PREL ASEC KOLY CH TW KN JA KS SUBJECT: MILITARY THINK TANKERS STRESS TAIWAN CONCERNS TO EAP PDAS STEPHENS Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission David Sedney. Reasons 1.4 (b) a nd (d). Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) Academics from military-related think tanks stressed to EAP PDAS Kathleen Stephens that Taiwan remains the most important security issue in the U.S.-China relationship. Following an overwhelming stress on Taiwan, they also noted North Korea, security for the Olympics and potential differences with Japan in the East China Sea as additional concerns, but asserted that these problems cannot compare to Taiwan's potential for disrupting U.S.-China relations. One scholar emphasized dangers to the relationship stemming from attempts by third parties, in both the cases of Taiwan and North Korea, to exacerbate differences between the United States and China and stressed the need for continued close coordination to prevent this. PDAS Stephens noted that United States policy on Taiwan has been clear and consistent and that we have made clear our opposition to changes in the status quo. She noted the need for quick progress in negotiations with the DPRK and urged China to compel the North Koreans to take the talks more seriously. In response to the PDAS's question about China's foreign policy ambitions, the scholars downplayed China's global role, describing China as a "responsible constructive cooperator" and stressing the need for Chinese to address domestic challenges and work toward global stability. End summary. Taiwan -------------- ¶2. (C) During an informal dinner with Chinese military and academic security specialists at the DCM's Residence, PDAS Stephens solicited Chinese views on security concerns, urged China to do more to persuade North Korea to engage seriously in negotiations and asked about China's vision for a more global foreign policy. Leading off the discussion, PLA-affiliated China Institute for International Strategic Studies (CIISS) scholar Gong Xiantian (a General who was formerly posted as China's DATT in Washington) stated that Taiwan is the main security issue in U.S.-China relations and underlined that Chen Shui-bian's pursuit of de jure independence for Taiwan would present serious challenges to U.S.-China relations if not prevented. Chen will attempt to exploit potential differences between the United States and China over the definition of Taiwan independence in order to involve the United States in the problem, Gong warned. For example, Chen will use the notion of a "Second Republic" Constitution to avoid declaring independence or crossing clear U.S. red lines, while at the same time using this concept to trumpet the accomplishment of de jure independence in the media. This would be a serious problem for the Mainland, Gong said. ¶3. (C) Academy of Military Science's (AMS) Major General Peng Guangqian agreed that Taiwan is the paramount security issue between the United States and China, suggesting that while Beijing can manage and control other potential security problems, the Taiwan issue is beyond the power of Beijing to control. He expressed concern that Chen Shui- bian will use tactics similar to those employed in his February 2006 decision to "cease the functioning of" the National Unification Council and Guidelines, which Peng posited could lead to a crisis in U.S.-China relations. ¶4. (C) PLA-affiliated Foundation for International Strategic Studies (FISS) scholar Zhang Tuosheng added that while long-term prospects for cross-Strait stability are positive, China worries that, in the short-term, Chen Shui- bian will try to incorporate the "two-state theory" into the Constitution in a way that will bring pressure on the Mainland to act. People will claim that such an action violates the Anti-Secession Law, but if Beijing counters with a strong response, this will create problems in U.S.- China relations, Zhang stated. Currently, there are three schools of thought in China about the near-term cross- Strait situation. The first says that time is on Beijing's side and the Mainland must continue to be patient. The second views the current period as one of "great danger." The third school believes long-term trends are on the Mainland's side, but sees danger in the short-term. China and the United States should continue to have frequent discussions and keep a watchful eye on the issue. BEIJING 00000399 002 OF 003 ¶5. (C) CIISS scholar Chen Wei reiterated the sensitivity of the coming year in dealing with the Taiwan issue. The stability of U.S.-China relations is important to the security of the entire region and the world. Vigilance and close communication on Taiwan will be the key to maintaining stability in the bilateral relationship in the coming year, he said. Chen rejected attempts to move the discussion off the Taiwan dime and he and the others returned to and stressed the Taiwan theme relentlessy. ¶6. (C) President of te Ministry of State Security- affiliated Chnese Institute of Contemporary International elations (CICIR) Cui Liru noted that Chen Shui-ian is adept at using salami tactics to bump up against any "red lines" which, in this situation, are necessarily ill- defined. If the situation reaches a "red line," it may be too late to prevent conflict. This would be a disaster for the United States and China. This is why China is so alarmed about Chen's possible moves and tries to warn the United States first, Cui stated. China is aware that a harsh Mainland reaction will strengthen Chen's hand domestically and that a softer policy is more effective. Chen is also aware of this, however, and looks to provoke a Mainland reaction, he said. ¶7. (C) PDAS Stephens repeated and reaffirmed the United States' consistent policy on Taiwan, noting that the policy has dealt effectively with the issue to date. Economic and cultural ties between Taiwan and the Mainland are improving and the United States encourages continued improvement and dialogue. The United States and China have a common interest in preserving cross-Strait stability and in continuing to be patient, she stated. North Korea -------------- ¶8. (C) Cui turned to the topic of North Korea, noting that aside from Taiwan, potential instability on the Korean Peninsula is a major concern for China. China welcomes the prospect of resumption of U.S.-DPRK consultations on financial issues, he noted. PDAS Stephens noted that the United States is prepared to discuss financial measures, but if the DPRK continues to stonewall in implementing the September 2005 agreement on denuclearization, it will be a problem for all the parties. Cui said China noticed the seriousness of the United States during the last round of the Six-Party Talks and believes North Korea may also be serious. ¶9. (C) Gong added that instability on the Korean Peninsula is the greatest external security facing China. (Taiwan is an internal threat, he said.) North Korea is currently in a difficult position. It is struggling hard over how to proceed. There is the danger that Pyongyang may be tempted to again play a provocative card such as a nuclear test. Previously, China did not believe such threats were serious, but now the United States and China have more common ground. Asked about the state of China-DPRK mil-mil relations, Gong said that they have certainly been affected by the changed relations between the two countries. Zhang added that China does not want to see North Korea and Iran become nuclear powers, in part because it will greatly diminish leverage over countries like Japan to remain non- nuclear. If North Korea tests another nuclear weapon, China's situation will become more difficult, he said. China's Growing Influence -------------- ¶10. (C) Asked about China's growing international profile and foreign policy vision, Chen Wei asserted that Deng Xiaoping's concept of keeping a low profile in international affairs is no longer the sine qua non of Chinese foreign policy. After some debate over the intentions behind Deng's formulation and criticism of the common English translation "hiding one's light and biding one's time," scholars downplayed the significance of the formulation, noting that it was meant, at the time, to allow China to avoid diverting attention from its domestic development. Following the 1980s and 90s when China strengthened its relations with Western countries, some criticized China's neglect of its traditional friends in the Third World, FISS's Zhang said. For this reason and because China seeks resources, including oil, for its continued rapid development, Beijing has been moving to strengthen relations with Africa, Latin America and other countries. Building good relations with developing BEIJING 00000399 003 OF 003 countries is a long-term strategy for China, he stressed, not just a short-term tactic. China sees itself as a developing country that has increasing influence in the world, but that remains a regional power. China does not have hegemonistic ambitions, he said. ¶11. (C) Gong said that China views itself as an active participant in the international system. Some refer to China as a "responsible constructive cooperator" in the international system, he said, meaning that China advocates actions that are positive for humanity and foster a "harmonious world." Building up relations with Africa and Latin America is symptomatic of China's efforts to diversify its foreign relations. Olympics and Terrorist Threats -------------- ¶12. (C) CICIR's Cui posited that, aside from Taiwan, the most direct security threat that China currently faces is countering terrorist threats to the 2008 Olympics. There are threats from both internal and external terrorist groups, Cui said, but he downplayed the likelihood of threats emanating from disaffected groups within China. China's internal political situation is "greatly improved," he claimed, adding that the Chinese government should be more confident in projecting its problems and accomplishments. China is in a transition and needs to deal with economic disparities and a host of other problems. As seen by the recent revisions to regulations for foreign journalists, however, the Government believes that outsiders will understand that China is working on these problems and that knowing more about China's shortcomings is not a problem. Rather, problems come from others knowing too little about China. Japan and the East China Sea -------------- ¶13. (C) Another possible security threat, according to Zhang, stems from the fragile situation in the East China Sea. While China's relations with Japan have improved somewhat in recent months, unresolved territorial disputes and conflicting maritime interests still hold the potential for problems. Japanese companies that had begun exploration for energy resources on the Chinese side of the so-called mid-line have pulled back and are now in negotiations, he noted. If negotiations do not make progress, however, or if an incident occurs as a result of the increased number of planes and ships in the region, this could lead to difficulties. China does not have maritime consultations with Japan as it does with the United States, he noted. Asked for the Chinese reaction to the change in the name of Japan's Defense Ministry, Zhang said that the change in the name was not a serious issue. However, if there are attempts to change Article 9 of the Constitution, China would have concerns. ¶14. (U) PDAS Stephens cleared this message. RANDT