CICIR, PARTY SCHOOL SCHOLARS ASSESS TOP LEADERS

C O N F I D E N T I A L BEIJING 002903 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/29/2032 TAGS: PREL PINR MARR CH SUBJECT: CICIR, PARTY SCHOOL SCHOLARS ASSESS TOP LEADERS APPROVED ASAT TEST BUT WERE UNAWARE OF DETAILS, TIMING REF: A. BEIJING 925 ¶B. BEIJING 752 Classified By: Political Minister Counselor Daniel Shields. Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) China's top leadership approved in general terms the testing of Anti-Satellite (ASAT) technology, but they most likely were unaware in advance of the details of the January test, including the precise date, scholars from the Ministry of State Security-affiliated China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations (CICIR) and the Central Party School (CPS) told Emboffs. Reftels reported similar views from other Chinese scholars. ¶2. (C) According to Fu Mengzi, Assistant President at CICIR, President Hu Jintao is believed to have approved in general terms the testing of China's Anti-Satellite technology, but neither he nor most of the rest of the government were likely aware of the details, including the precise date. Moreover, few at a senior level had given much strategic thought to the ASAT test or considered its broader implications for Chinese foreign policy. Communication within the PRC bureaucracy was extremely poor and there was "great confusion" afterward. Even most of the People's Liberation Army was kept in the dark, Fu claimed. Separately, CPS scholar Kang Shaobang said President Hu "should have known" about the test in advance, given his position as Chairman of the Central Military Commission. Kang's colleague at the Party School, Professor Li Yunlong, said Hu and others had most likely approved the generic concept of "scientific" testing of ASAT technology some time ago. That decision was followed by a number of tests that drew no attention because they all failed, until this January, Li surmised. ¶3. (C) Addressing Beijing's motivations for testing its ASAT technology, Professor Kang pointed to the leadership's desire to warn Taiwan over independence in this "crucial" year of ¶2007. Liu Bo, Deputy Director of International Exchanges at CICIR, had a different view, claiming that China's Commission of Science, Technology & Industry for National Defense (COSTIND) was the driving force behind the test. COSTIND's rationale was that the United States and the former Soviet Union had developed this technology more than 20 years ago; therefore, China ought to have it too. Once the technology was developed, COSTIND's attitude was that it "naturally" needed to be tested. Later in the conversation, CICIR's Fu added that an additional impetus was the United States' alleged "refusal" to cooperate with China on space issues, which left Beijing "no choice" but to develop its own technologies, including ASAT capability. RANDT