COOKED STATS, RAW NERVES: UPBEAT PROTEST NUMBERS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIJING 002338

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/10/2032
TAGS: PGOV PHUM SOCI CH
SUBJECT: COOKED STATS, RAW NERVES: UPBEAT PROTEST NUMBERS
VEIL CHINA'S SOCIAL STRAINS

REF: A. BEIJING 1698


B. GUANGZHOU 398

C. 06 BEIJING 4762

Classified By: Political Section Internal Unit Chief Susan A. Thornton.
Reasons 1.4 (b/d).

Summary
--------------


1. (C) China's Ministry of Public Security has made a
point in the early part of 2007 of publicizing
statistics showing that "mass incidents" across China
are on the wane, particularly in rural areas. MPS
Vice Minister Liu Jinguo announced in January that the
number of "mass incidents," which he did not define,
declined by 16.5 percent in 2006. But our reading
from contacts is that official statistics related to
protests are highly suspect. Local officials
underreport the flare-ups and Central authorities
likely cook the numbers anyway to create a perception
of progress in addressing China's pronounced social
disparities. Recent confrontations between protesters
and police in Hunan and Jiangxi provinces (ref A)
indicate that many of the root causes of protests past
-- such as land disputes and graft -- are as prevalent
as ever. Against this backdrop, a recent article in
the influential weekly Study Times urged local
officials to resist using force to quell protests, a
signal that regardless of the statistics, top leaders
remain very concerned about ongoing threats to social
stability. End Summary.

Strange Math
--------------


2. (C) Releasing statistics about social disturbances
has become a winter ritual of sorts for the Chinese
Government. At a press conference in January, MPS
Vice Minister Liu Jinguo said the number of "mass
incidents" in China declined by 16.5 percent in 2006.
Also in January, Chen Xiwen, director of the Central
Rural Work Leading Group, announced that the number of
"mass incidents" nationwide fell by some 20 percent
last year, to 23,000, adding that about half were in
the countryside. (Note: The figure is confusing
because in January of last year, the MPS stated that
in 2005, there were some 87,000 "disturbances of
public order" across the country; by Chen's count, the
number of "mass incidents" for 2005 would have been
closer to 30,000. End note.) Regardless of the
difference between Liu and Chen's math, the statements
represent the first official reports in recent years
of positive progress in reining in protests. The
87,000 "disturbances of public order" figure
constituted an uptick over statistics leaked to
outside sources in January 2005 indicating that the
MPS tabulated some 74,000 "mass incidents" in 2004.
In addition, an official Xinhua News Service report
from 2005 pegged the number of "mass incidents" in
2003 at 60,000.


3. (C) How security authorities differentiate a
"disturbance of public order" from a "mass incident"
remains unclear. The term "mass incident" has no
legal definition. Nonetheless, a 2005 article on the
website of the China Law Society (an official
organization of Chinese legal scholars and
professionals) argued that "mass incidents" have two
main characteristics, namely 1) they involve large
numbers of persons, from tens to hundreds and 2) about
two-thirds of the incidents pit regular citizens
against government authorities seen as failing to
fulfill their official duties. A "disturbance of
public order," however, is a legal term in China's
criminal code that covers 37 offenses, including
unsanctioned public assembly and obstruction of
justice, among others.

Skepticism About the Stats
--------------


4. (C) None of the Chinese media or academic contacts
we spoke with on the subject said the statistics,
whatever they measure, are reliable. "Everyone is
suspicious of the numbers," said Lin Mei (protect),a
professor of sociology at the Central Party School.
The Government wants to give the impression to both
domestic and international audiences that its
policies, such as the New Socialist Countryside and
others initiatives meant to address social

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disparities, are working. In connection with this,
the assumption in media and academic circles is that
the statistics on incidents are doctored to show that
things are constantly improving, Lin said. Zou Xueyin
(protect),a professor at the Ministry of Civil
Affairs training college who focuses on grass roots
governance issues, said it is difficult to assess
whether the number of protests is trending up or down,
although he judged that the true figures are probably
higher than what the Government is quoting.

Bitterness in the Village
--------------


5. (C) The ongoing concern at the highest levels
stems from the fact that the underlying facors
causing social discord in China remain an in some
respects are getting worse, said Zou. Reliable
statistics are hard to come by, but Zou and other
contacts estimate that corruption, land grabs and
environmental degradation are the most common
complaints touching off protests. Moreover,
disparities between coast and interior, rich and poor
and urban and rural residents are as pronounced as
ever. Lin of the Central Party School said bitterness
abounds in the countryside because many rural
residents feel they have borne the cost of China's
modernization and "paid" for the growth of the
boomtowns whose residents reap a disproportionate
share of the benefits. Originally from rural Hunan,
Lin related that her childhood home had a dirt floor
and that obtaining nutritious food was often a
challenge. Her brothers never moved away from the
village. They now own their own (more modern) homes
and drive motorcycles. They regularly eat meat and
eggs. But they remain resentful of the development
lag between themselves and their urban counterparts.


6. (C) At the same time, rural residents are
increasingly aware of their legal rights and have new
tools for gaining information, said Deng Yuwen
(protect),an editor at Study Times, an influential
weekly newspaper published by the Central Party
School. Access to the Internet may be uneven, but
farmers have cell phones and can communicate with each
other about local events, he observed. News of
protests and the incidents that spark them spread fast
via cell phone text messages. In Guangdong, where new
reports of unrest seem to emerge almost daily, locals
also have easy access to Hong Kong media (ref B). At
the same time, local governments have failed to keep
up with the changing times. The bureaucracy remains
slow and unresponsive. Regular citizens tend to view
lower level court systems as political tools of the
local elite, not impartial mechanisms for dispute
resolution. A cadre's ticket up the career ladder
comes from ensuring economic growth, despite much
discussion of reform on that score, our contacts said.
In this context, when protest activity erupts, the
instinct is to suppress it and then cover up the fact
that it ever occurred, Deng observed.


7. (C) Wang Keqin, an investigative reporter for the
China Economic Times, separately made a similar point,
adding that the upbeat figures are meant to
demonstrate progress in the run-up to the 17th Party
Congress this fall. Mindful of this, and keen to
preserve their credentials for promotion, local
officials often fail to report episodes of unrest to
the national MPS, said Deng of Study Times. Criteria
for promotion in the Party continue to be keyed to
economic performance, local employment levels and
maintenance of stability. Deng said that for their
part, central authorities worry that local officials'
poor handling of protests could serve to fray public
confidence in the Party's authority.

Study Times Piece Urges Restraint
--------------


8. (C) In connection with this, the Study Times
caused a stir in March when it ran an article urging
local governments not to use force when handling
public protests. In unusually specific terms, the
piece said security officials should only use force in
cases where mass incidents have violated laws and
regulations and that use of firearms should be avoided
except in extreme circumstances. It went on to say
that authorities should resolve disputes through
negotiation, adding that violent crackdowns only serve
to intensify conflicts. The article was by Mou Junfa,

BEIJING 00002338 003 OF 003


Deputy Director of the Institute of Law Enforcement,
part of the Commission on Politics and Law under the
Central Committee. Politburo Standing Committee
member Luo Gan is the Commission's Secretary and
Minister for Public Security Zhou Yongkang is its
Deputy Secretary, indicating that Mou's suggestion has
the support of the Chinese leadership. The aim of the
article, according to Deng, was to make it known that
the Central Government is paying close attention to
how local authorities address social stability issues.

"Police and Thugs in the Same Family"
--------------


9. (C) The Study Times article appeared on the heels
of a violent protest in Hunan province that vividly
illustrated the stability challenges China faces. The
clash between residents and police occurred when a
private bus company drastically increased fares. The
incident spun out of control when a student was
reportedly killed in the tumult. To quell the
conflict, the bus company allegedly brought in hired
thugs to add muscle to the local police force that was
attempting to calm the situation. This prompted
rumors that the local authorities were in league with
the bus company all along in an effort to soak the
regular passengers. Deng and other contacts said the
hiring of heavies to disperse rallies is a regular
occurrence and that often local police forces provide
them with fake uniforms. The practice only serves to
increase tensions and exacerbate public skepticism
about the police. In fact, doubts about security
officials' honesty remain rampant in Chinese society,
Deng said, citing a popular Chinese aphorism that
translates roughly as "police and thugs are all in the
same family."

Comment
--------------


10. (C) Despite such common complaints and the shared
traits of many incidents, no national connective
tissue linking the protests has emerged. Concern
about the rise of an organized movement is what motivates
the Party's populist policy initiatives -- as well as
its rhetoric and measures to control media reporting
on unrest. It is also likely what keeps top leaders
awake at night.
RANDT