BEIJING LEADERSHIP AND REFORMERS BOTH KEEP CLOSE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIJING 001596 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/09/2032 TAGS: PHUM PGOV CH HK SUBJECT: BEIJING LEADERSHIP AND REFORMERS BOTH KEEP CLOSE EYE ON HONG KONG'S CE ELECTION REF: A. A) HONG KONG 603 ¶B. B) FBIS CPP20070307072012 Classified By: Classified by Political Internal Unit Chief Susan Thornton. Reasons 1.4 (b/d). Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) Summary. Despite another round of warnings from National People's Congress (NPC) Chairman Wu Bangguo on "ensuring a smooth election" for Hong Kong Chief Executive on March 25, Beijing-based reformers continue to watch the Hong Kong process with an eye toward implications for China's own political reform prospects, according to contacts. The lively pre- election debate (in Cantonese) held on March 1 in Hong Kong was not broadcast live in Beijing, but was mentioned in coverage by Phoenix TV, the March 2 issue of the People's Daily and was available on the internet on the Mainland. Following the initial straight coverage of the debate in People's Daily which favored neither candidate, Xinhua reports run by most major news outlets focused on the minimal effect the debate had on continuing majority support for incumbent CE Donald Tsang and on the Hong Kong people's "ability to distinguish between a good debater and a good administrator." Despite the limited coverage and the knowledge that there will likely be no surprises, politically astute Mainlanders will clearly have an eye on Hong Kong come March 25. End Summary. ¶2. (C) Media reported that NPC Chairman Wu Bangguo urged Hong Kong National People's Congress delegates during a March 7 discussion session to elect a "patriotic" Chief Executive and that the central government affirmed the work of Donald Tsang and his administration (ref b). While most believe that the March 25 indirect election for Chief Executive in Hong Kong will bring no surprises, the Chinese leadership is leaving little doubt about their preferred outcome. Despite this, Beijing's political reform circles and others are paying close attention to the Hong Kong CE election as a harbinger of future political reform prospects for the Mainland. Mainland Media, Internet Cover Debate -------------- ¶3. (C) In this context, the lively March 1 debate in Hong Kong (ref a) between Tsang and his rival for the CE post, Alan Leong, was welcomed by Beijing's political elite, according to several local contacts. The debate (in Cantonese) was not broadcast live in Beijing, but was mentioned in coverage by Phoenix TV, the March 2 issue of the People's Daily and was available on the internet on the Mainland. Lawyer Wang Xuelan, whose father is a former Supreme Court judge and who was in the United States for the 2004 Presidential election, said she is paying attention to the CE election and had seen some coverage of the debate. She assessed that the encounter between Tsang and Leong was "just like an American Presidential debate." ¶4. (C) Although Mainland media have been limited in their coverage of the election by strict guidance that requires them to use Xinhua dispatches, the People's Daily ran an article on March 2 with straight coverage of the debate, the types of questions asked and did not noticeably favor either candidate. Following the initial People's Daily report, subsequent Xinhua reports run by most major news outlets focused on the minimal effect the debate had on continuing majority support for incumbent CE Donald Tsang and on the Hong Kong people's "ability to distinguish between a good debater and a good administrator." ¶5. (C) Zhou Qing'an (protect),an associate professor at the Tsinghua University School of Journalism and Communications who writes regular commentary for The Beijing News, told Poloff that propaganda authorities have issued no new guidelines for the upcoming election. The Xinhua coverage has been and will continue to be straightforward, avoiding thorny issues of democracy or universal suffrage, Zhou said. He added that the Xinhua correspondents in Hong Kong, whom he knows, practice self-censorship on such matters to avoid unwelcome attention from the wire service's top brass. Zhou predicted, however, that BEIJING 00001596 002 OF 002 after the election, some outlets may test the censors by running commentary on the vote. The progressive Southern Metropolitan Daily particularly bears watching, he related. ¶6. (C) There is uneven interest in Hong Kong issues in Chinese society, Zhou said. People in southern China, particularly in Guangdong and Fujian provinces, follow Hong Kong developments closely, however, because what happens there economically and politically can have a pronounced effect on the region. In addition, elites nationwide take an interest in Hong Kong, in part because more and more business people and white-collar workers have actually visited Hong Kong. Some even have business interests there. For intellectuals, particularly journalists and professors, Hong Kong fascinates because they believe its progress in democracy could help foster more political openness in the Mainland. RANDT