2,500 PEOPLE DEMONSTRATE AGAINST BASRAH GOVERNOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L BASRAH 000031 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 4/16/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL SUBJECT: 2,500 PEOPLE DEMONSTRATE AGAINST BASRAH GOVERNOR CLASSIFIED BY: Louis Bono, Director, Basrah Regional Embassy Office, Department of State. REASON: 1.4 (b),(d) ¶1. (C) About 2500 people marched peacefully on the office of Basrah Governor Mohammed al-Wa'eli April 16 and delivered a letter of grievances. The demonstrators departed from the Great Mosque of Basrah at 09:00 and marched 1.8 kilometers to the government complex housing the governor's office and the provincial council building, waving flags and banners. The majority of the marchers were men. According to British military sources, the crowd split into two groups in front of the governor's office at 10:22 when the letter was delivered, then began to disperse in all directions a few minutes later. By 11:30, it had evaporated completely. The governor, who had vowed not to flee the city, did not accept the letter in person. Al-Arabiya television reported the governor as saying the march was a plot to overthrow and assassinate him. Six hundred fifty Iraqi police and nine companies of Iraqi Army troops were deployed to maintain public order, according to the British military. British forces stayed out of sight but were poised to intervene if violence erupted beyond the means of the ISF to control it. Demonstration organizers have promised three days of protests and a general strike. British officials said if Iraqi Security Forces can maintain order these three days, then Basrah will have taken a huge step to demonstrate its readiness for Provincial Iraqi Control (PIC) later this year. ¶2. (C) Comment. The demonstration, which was supported by numerous political groups in Basrah, reflects the depth and breadth of the governor's unpopularity in the province. Among the visitors to the Basrah Regional Embassy Office, no one outside the governor's Fadillah Party speaks well of him. In the view of the REO, the protests are an attempt by the Islamists to punish Fadillah for withdrawing from the United Iraqi Alliance by taking over Fadillah's main bastion of power, which has access to Iraq's oil revenues. Nevertheless, the fact that the governor stayed in Basrah, at least on the first day of the promised protests, speaks of his nerve and political survival skills. As for the ability of the Iraqi Security Forces to maintain order as political temperatures rise, it is premature to draw any definitive conclusions, despite the hope generated by the overall calm of the first day. BONO