THE GLOVES COME OFF IN BASRAH

S E C R E T BASRAH 000023 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 4/8/2017 TAGS: PGOV PTER MOPS IZ SUBJECT: THE GLOVES COME OFF IN BASRAH CLASSIFIED BY: Louis L. Bono, Director, REO Basrah, Department of State. REASON: 1.4 (a),(c),(d) CLASSIFIED BY: Louis L. Bono, Director, REO Basrah, Department of State. REASON: 1.4 (a),(c),(d) ¶1. (S/REL MNF-I) Over the past month, British forces have conducted a series of counter-IDF raids, employing newly acquired rescources such as the C-RAM (counter rocket and mortar) system and UAVs (unmanned aerial reconnaissance vehicles) to locate the attackers. The counter-IDF raids are part of a series of MND(SE) counter-militia operations intended to coincide with the repositioning of British forces at the Basrah Air Station. ¶2. (S/REL MNF-I) The raids initially put the militias on their back foot - there was a significant reduction in IDF attacks in late March - but the militias now appear to be regrouping and are modifying their tactics. IDF attacks against the Basrah Palace Compound (BPC) are now on the increase. Some of the attacks are coming from the sparsely populated flatlands between the BPC and the Iranian border, an area not patrolled by UAVs. Most of the attacks now take place under cover of night (2200 - 0600) to limit detection. Militants have also twice fired RPGs on the BPC main gate twice in the last week. Further, the militias have begun to counter-attack the British strike teams. On April 5, four British soldiers and one interpreter were killed when an IED flipped a 24-ton Warrior tank up and over. British soldiers were also killed on April 1 and 2 by sniper fire. Sources indicated the sniper was a member of the recently disbanded police serious crimes unit. ¶3. (S/REL MNF-I) The recent raids provide more insight into militia activity. While most of the attacks are being conducted by rogue Jai'sh al Mahdi (JAM) elements, other militias are also involved, including Thar Allah. Thar Allah, which means Vengeance of God, is an Iran-backed militia/political party that seeks to impose an Iranian-style theocracy. It is also apparent that there are few, if any, prospective martyrs - suicide bombers - in Basrah. As one British officer noted, "these people are not zealots. They're common thugs, gangsters." For them, this is a business. ¶4. (S/REL MNF-I) On March 21, JAM fighters overwhelmed Fadillah militia outside Fadillah's headquarters and the Governor's palace. JAM burned the Fadillah headquarters and took some hostages. Not surprisingly, Basrah police were slow to respond, and British forces were called to intervene. (Note: The Governor, a Fadillah member, has become increasingly supportive of the Coalition since an assassination attempt in October 2006. End note.) Recent intelligence suggests that heretofore enemies JAM and Badr are contemplating an alliance of convenience to take out the Governor and his Fadhilla militia in order to garner control of Basrah. Comment ¶5. (S/REL MNF-I) While we welcome the increase in strike operations, it is clear that the British alone cannot stabilize Basrah, particularly given their plans to reduce forces. The increase in attacks against Coalition bases and the fighting between militias provide a glimpse of Basrah's future. Here, as in Baghdad, the time has come for Iraqi security forces to increase their engagement. Unfortunately, the Basrah police are subjugated to various militias, and provincial leaders are either complicit with the militias or powerless to take them on. Asaf al-Nahi, a close contact who was just assassinated, suggested that the only way to secure the city is to impose martial law for a few months until the police force can be cleansed. This is beginning to sound like a good idea. BONO