REACTIONS TO NATIONAL ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BANJUL 000065 SIPDIS C O R R E C T E D C O P Y--PARA NUMBERS CORRECTED SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/07/2017 TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM GA SUBJECT: REACTIONS TO NATIONAL ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS REF: A. BANJUL 44 ¶B. 06 BANJUL 653 BANJUL 00000065 001.4 OF 003 Classified By: Poloff Menaka M. Nayyar, reason 1.4 (b and d) -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (SBU) Reactions to the January 25 National Assembly elections are generally positive with regard to the technical voting and counting procedures. However, observers and politicians alike have expressed dismay at the low voter turnout rate and some irregularities, while the opposition United Democratic Party (UDP) expressed outrage at incidents of harassment and intimidation by authorities. President Jammeh, jubilant over his Alliance for Patriotic Reorientation and Construction's (APRC) widespread victory, took the occasion to lambaste the opposition. Post judges the election results to be credible, but the polling was marred by scattered irregularities that may well have influenced the outcome in at least one constituency. END SUMMARY -------------- OBSERVERS' CRITIQUES -------------- ¶2. (SBU) On January 27, Poloff attended an election observation debriefing for members of the donor community and diplomatic corps, hosted by UNDP. As reported in ref A, of the 48 elected National Assembly seats, the APRC won 42 seats, the opposition UDP garnered four seats, and a candidate from the opposition National Alliance for Democracy (NADD) and Development and an independent candidate won the remaining two seats. Overall, the voting on January 25 was observed to be peaceful and orderly, and the secrecy of the ballot was generally protected. No observers reported evidence of systematic rigging of the elections or other widespread irregularities; however, the observers noted the low voter turnout -- 42 percent nationwide -- as well as scattered instances of irregularities, including underage voters in some constituencies in the center of the country. Procedural glitches, such as the delay in the transport of the ballot boxes to counting centers and a few cases of unauthorized persons at some counting centers, were also observed. ¶3. (U) Also on January 27, Ambassador and Poloff attended the official IEC debriefing for election observers, where the consensus was that the outcome was credible and the election results "reflected the will of the people." There was agreement, by and large, that the security forces behaved correctly and refrained from interfering in the voting process with the noted exception in Upper Saloum (ref A). -------------- JAMMEH IN THE MEDIA -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Among the irregularities, election observers and the opposition voiced dismay at President Jammeh's partisan remarks to the publicly-owned Gambia Radio and Television Services (GRTS) on January 24, which had been designated by the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) as a "no campaigning" day. On the nightly television news, Jammeh, in a clear pitch for the APRC, advised voters that, though they were free to vote for whomever they chose, they should vote for "the party that was clearly going to win and bring The Gambia development." In a radio message on the same day, he warned the electorate that those areas that did not vote for the APRC would not receive development assistance, echoing threats made during the September 2006 presidential election campaign. ¶5. (C) After the results were announced on January 26, President Jammeh told reporters at GRTS that he was happy voters had "thrown out two empty barrels" from the National Assembly. Though he did not name them, it is widely believed he was referring to opposition National Assembly Member (NAM),Halifa Sallah, outgoing National Assembly Minority Leader and NADD flagbearer, and former NAM Hamat Bah, leader of the UDP-allied National Reconciliation Party (NRP). Jammeh accused them of being engaged in "useless intellectualism" and being "in the pay of a foreign country." (COMMENT: Prior to the elections, Jammeh had made no secret of his desire to see Sallah and Bah defeated. As noted in ref A, underage voting was observed in Bah's constituency and may well have been a factor in his defeat. Regarding Jammeh's allegation of opposition elements being "in the pay of a foreign country," he has previously made this claim, but BANJUL 00000065 002.4 OF 003 he and other GOTG officials steadfastly decline to identify the foreign country involved. Jammeh may well have been referring to Senegal, as Hamat Bah in particular is known to have contacts with Senegalese politicians, based on, for example, shared participation in ECOWAS parliamentary activities. END COMMENT) -------------- WHY SO LOW? -------------- ¶7. (U) The most common explanation given for the low voter turnout (41.7 percent) is that the electorate is fed up with the weak and divided opposition, and views APRC victories as a foregone conclusion. However, some contacts speculated that timing was a factor, noting that the election was held during the rice harvest, which could have kept some rural citizens from voting. -------------- UDP REACTS -------------- ¶8. (SBU) On February 1, Poloff and Pol Assistant met with senior UDP official Yaya Jallow, who stated that the voting process itself was transparent, echoing UDP leader Ousainou Darboe's official statement accepting the results. However, Jallow said the UDP -- the largest opposition party -- had numerous complaints about candidate intimidation and campaign rule violations, and expressed dissatisfaction with his party's four seats, stating they would have won 20 seats had the playing field been level. (COMMENT: This estimate is grossly exaggerated. Prior to the contest, our contacts, including opposition supporters, had estimated the opposition and independent slates together would win five to ten seats; in the end, non-APRC candidates won six seats. END COMMENT) Jallow went on to cite what he saw as irregularities, such as the involvement of local officials in getting non-Gambians to vote in opposition strongholds. (COMMENT: The general agreement among our contacts is that there was no significant evidence of voting by non-Gambians in this contest as compared to the presidential election last September, where there were clear signs of such voting. END COMMENT). He also referred to the involvement of supposedly neutral village chiefs in partisan activities, noting it was contrary to the Commonwealth-brokered Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) of February 2006 setting forth a "code of good conduct" by parties in their election activities. ¶9. (U) Jallow also discussed his party's concern over cases of authorities' intimidation of some UDP candidates and supporters, as well as scattered instances of detention, before and after the January 25 elections. He cited as an example the arrest of the UDP candidate in Basse and nine of his supporters on charges of unlawful assembly and breach of peace. Most of these detainees have since been released, and the detained candidates were permitted to remain on the ballot for the elections. (COMMENT: Most of our contacts agree that, while these incidents of harassment directed against the opposition were indeed a blot on the electoral process, they were not of such magnitude or severity as to have a significant impact on the outcome, particularly as the detained opposition figures did not have their candidacies revoked. END COMMENT) Jallow reiterated the plight of two high-profile UDP detainees, Kanyiba Kanyi, a UDP supporter who has not been heard from since September, and Ousman "Rambo" Jatta, an elected local UDP official also detained since September (ref B). -------------- OTHER OPPOSITION REACTIONS -------------- ¶10. (U) Other opposition parties have maintained a low profile since the contest, issuing few statements. NADD head and defeated incumbent minority leader, Halifa Sallah, reportedly told the media that he accepted the results, including his own defeat. In addition, the defeated NRP head, Hamat Bah, has refrained from public comment. However, representatives of his NRP party have complained about election improprieties, e.g. the underage voting mentioned above. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶11. (SBU) The general consensus among election observers and others -- a consensus that we share -- on the January 25 elections is that, as in the September 2006 presidential election, the voting process itself was relatively BANJUL 00000065 003.4 OF 003 transparent and free of flagrant problems such as mass rigging of the ballot boxes. However, the irregularities witnessed on polling day, coupled with the scattered acts of intimidation against the opposition, highlighted the fact that these elections were far from perfect. Post judges the overall election results credible, although irregularities may well have been a factor in APRC victories in a few constituencies, particularly in that where opposition NRP candidate Hamat Bah was narrowly defeated by his ruling party challenger. The playing field was tilted in the APRC's favor and had it been more level, the opposition -- the UDP in particular -- may well have picked up a few more seats. Nevertheless, on a more positive note, the UDP, despite its complaints about the election process, did choose to participate in the contest rather than repeat its boycott of the last National Assembly elections in 2002. The UDP did pick up four seats, which when added to the two seats picked up by NADD and an independent candidate, raises from three toQsix the total non-APRC presence in the National Assembly. END COMMENT. STAFFORD