NATIONAL ASSEMBLY ELECTION RESULTS: RULING APRC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BANJUL 000044 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV KDEM GA SUBJECT: NATIONAL ASSEMBLY ELECTION RESULTS: RULING APRC MAINTAINS CONTROL, WITH MODEST OPPOSITION, INDEPENDENT GAINS REF: BANJUL 36 BANJUL 00000044 001.2 OF 002 -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (SBU) The ruling party Alliance for Patriotic Reorientation and Construction (APRC) has won a total of 42 out of 48 seats in the National Assembly elections held on January 25. Five seats were won by default as APRC candidates ran unopposed in their constituencies, while 37 of the 43 contested seats were won in Thursday's contest. The opposition United Democratic Party (UDP) picked up four seats, the opposition National Alliance for Democracy and Development (NADD) took one, and an independent candidate won the last seat. The opposition National Reconciliation Party (NRP),did not win any seats, despite its strategic alliance with the UDP. Neither the head of NADD, Halifa Sallah, nor the leader of the NRP, Hamat Bah, won in their respective constituencies. Voter turnout was extremely low by Gambian standards, at 41.7 percent, or 261,974 votes cast. Though the APRC will continue to dominate the National Assembly, it did lose an additional three seats to opposition and independent candidates, down to 42 from 45 in the outgoing parliament. Embassy observers reported no violence, scattered instances of intimidation and procedural irregularities, and some instances of underage voters. Our initial assessment is that, in the absence of any indication so far of systematic rigging of election results, they were credible -- with the likely exception of one particular constituency, where irregularities appeared considerably higher than elsewhere. END SUMMARY. -------------- FINAL RESULTS -------------- ¶2. (U) The final results were declared on the morning of January 26 after a relatively swift counting process. The Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) declared that the APRC won 37 seats, or 59.7 percent of votes. This is in addition to the five seats the APRC won by default prior to the election in the constituencies where its candidates ran unopposed. The Gambia's largest opposition part, the UDP, won four seats and 21.9 percent of the vote, taking three seats in the Lower River region areas of Jarra Central, Kiang Central, and Kiang West, the only constituency to vote for the opposition in September's presidential election, as well as one seat in the Central River Region constituency of Sami. NADD captured 5.3 percent of the vote and won its sole seat in Wulli West, where the incumbent maintained his seat, while an independent candidate won in the Foni Bintang constituency. Independents garnered 7.3 percent of votes, while the NRP, which did not win any seats, won 5.7 percent of the total votes. -------------- LOW TURNOUT -------------- ¶3. (U) Embassy observers noted very low turnout at the polls, which was confirmed by the unprecedentedly low turnout figure of 41.7 percent, or 261,974 votes. Turnout for the presidential election in September 2006 was approximately 59 percent, which was also low compared to the previous contest. Reasons for the low turnout rate are unclear. Possible explanations initially mentioned by contacts include the timing of the election during the rice harvesting season and voter apathy due to expectations of an overwhelming APRC victory. -------------- KEY PLAYERS LOSE OUT -------------- ¶4. (SBU) There were at least two high-profile losses for opposition candidates. Though he did win 35 percent of the votes, Halifa Sallah, outgoing Minority Leader and NADD flagbearer, lost the triangular race in Serrekunda Central to the APRC candidate, Ousainou Sainey Jaiteh, who took 52.2 percent of votes. The UDP candidate in that constituency took 12.7 percent. Hamat Bah, the NRP leader, lost a close race in his home constituency of Upper Saloum, losing to APRC candidate Sainey Mbye with 48.6 percent of votes. The victory of an independent, Ebrima Jammeh, in the Foni Bintang constituency signals a loss for the APRC in a stronghold area, highlighting the tension surrounding the selection of APRC candidates (reftel). -------------- BANJUL 00000044 002.2 OF 002 EMBASSY OBSERVATIONS -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Four embassy teams, spread out around the country, observed at least 120 of the 930 polling stations. Some common threads emerged: short and orderly queues, low turnout after the initial morning rush, a majority of female voters, and no violence. Minor altercations were reported at a few polling stations, but overall the electoral process was a smooth one. IEC-trained polling and party agents seemed better-informed than during the presidential election, and while occasional technical glitches were reported, e.g. confusion over how to treat a few voters not listed on the registers or counterfoils, nothing detrimental to the outcome was observed in the procedures. There were isolated incidents of underage voters taking part, but in negligible numbers, except in the hotly contested Upper Saloum area, where underage voters were seen en masse at multiple polling sites. One minor was queried after she had voted and told Emboffs that she was in the fifth grade, which would put her age at 11 or 12. When possible, Embassy observers took photographs of minors voting, and Post plans to share them with the local UNICEF office, other observers, and the IEC. ¶6. (SBU) One clear incident of voter intimidation was observed in Upper Saloum, where two armed policeman and a group of security agents were posted at the juncture of the highway and a main road leading to several polling stations. ¶7. (SBU) Other isolated irregularities reported were late openings of the polls, largely due to the 7 a.m. start time which was well before sunrise; APRC propaganda on the premises of a polling station; an incumbent APRC candidate present at a polling station; village elders sitting next to the entrance to a voting booth; the occasional blurring of roles between party agents and IEC polling agents; and a police entourage escorting two GOTG officials -- the regional governor and the Secretary of State for the Interior -- at a polling site. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶8. (SBU) The APRC's continued dominance of the National Assembly came as no surprise, although party leaders, including President Jammeh, will likely be dismayed at the loss of three of their seats. The lone independent victor may signal dissatisfaction with operations within the APRC. Though the results indicate that the election was, overall, a credible one, the irregularities cited in Upper Saloum are troublesome and likely affected the outcome in that very close race. The low voter turnout will doubtless be of concern to both the ruling and opposition parties. The analysis of this factor and the reports of other observation missions, both domestic and international, will be of high interest in the days to come. Two separate election debriefings will be held by the donor community and the IEC on Saturday, January 26. Post will report septel. END COMMENT STAFFORD