THAI ELECTION: UNOFFICIAL RESULTS GOOD NEWS FOR

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 BANGKOK 006257 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPT FOR EAP/MLS, NSC FOR PHU E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM TH SUBJECT: THAI ELECTION: UNOFFICIAL RESULTS GOOD NEWS FOR PRO-THAKSIN PARTY REF: A. BANGKOK 6248 (CLOSE BUT NO CIGAR) ¶B. BANGKOK 6243 (UNPREDICTABLE ELECTION) ¶C. BANGKOK 6182 (RECORD-SETTING VOTING) ¶D. BANGKOK 6159 (FOCUSING ON PPP) ¶E. BANGKOK 6157 (ADVANCE VOTING) SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (SBU) Final, unofficial results from Thailand's December 23 elections indicate that a record 74.5% of the electorate voted to give the pro-Thaksin People's Power Party (PPP) a plurality of 233 seats in the 480-seat House of Representatives, including a plurality of proportional party list seats. The Election Commission of Thailand (ECT) said it will endorse non-contested election results on January 4. The ECT would investigate election irregularities within 30 days, hold by-elections in problematic constituencies on January 13, and disqualify some MPs-elect if necessary. The ECT voted to re-run a Northeast constituency election following vote-buying allegations and will continue investigations in other areas. Observers from the Asian Network for Free Elections said that the elections were generally well-administered, but raised concerns about pre-election vote-buying and the adjudication of fraud claims. The process of choosing the new Senate has begun, with Senate elections tentatively scheduled for March 2. End summary. PRO-THAKSIN PARTY STRENGTHENS HAND -------------- ¶2. (U) On December 25, the Election Commission of Thailand (ECT) released final, although not yet officially certified results from the December 23 Thai election, which differed somewhat from unofficial results released on December 24 (ref A). These final figures indicate that that the pro-Thaksin People's Power Party (PPP) won 233 seats in the 480-seat House of Representatives, coming 8 votes short of achieving an absolute majority (241 seats are needed to form a government). Based on the ECT's unofficial results, the tally stands at: PPP..............................233 Democrat.........................165 Chart Thai.......................37 For the Motherland...............24 Ruam Jai Thai Chart Pattana......9 Matchima Thippathai..............7 Pracharaj........................5 ¶3. (U) Of these 480 seats, the PPP was awarded 34 of the 80 proportional party list seats in the parliament, while the Democrat Party won 33 seats. The Motherland and Chart Thai parties won seven and four of these seats respectively, while the Ruam Jai Thai Chart Pattana and Pracharaj parties secured one party list seat each. Election officials also revised their turnout statistics, stating that a record 74.45% of the electorate (32.8 million people out of 44 million registered voters) exercised their voting rights. ¶4. (U) Also on December 25, the ECT announced that it would officially endorse the results in non-controversial constituencies no later than January 4. (Note: By law, the ECT must declare official election results for trouble-free constituencies within seven working days of the election. End note.) The ECT said it would complete investigations into election irregularities in contested constituency elections within 30 days. These investigations could result in the disqualification of some candidates (red cards) followed by a re-run election, or the re-run of individual constituency races with all candidates re-competing (yellow cards). The ECT set January 13 as the date for the first round of these by-elections. ¶5. (U) On December 25, election commissioners voted to formally "yellow card" three PPP Members of Parliament-elect in a Nakhon Ratchasima constituency in the Northeast for BANGKOK 00006257 002 OF 003 allegedly using money to draw voters to pre-election campaign rallies. These three PPP candidates will be eligible to re-compete in a January 13 by-election in their constituency. The ECT also announced it had summoned four other PPP MPs-elect and two Democrat MPs-elect to testify on December 27 before the ECT concerning allegations they had bought votes. Additionally, the ECT said it would investigate two PPP MPs-elect concerning the pre-election distribution of a controversial VCD that contained a message from deposed Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra (ref D). ¶6. (SBU) The media have continued to report on back-room negotiations between the PPP and other parties to form a new government, in spite of the pending ECT investigation and potential candidate disqualifications. A senior PPP official told us that the Ruam Jai Thai Chart Pattana, Matchima Thippathai, and Pracharaj parties had agreed to join a PPP-led government, thus giving the coalition a 254-seat majority in the 480-seat chamber. A Democrat told us on election night that, as long as the PPP did not win an outright majority itself, he thought the Democrats still had a chance, depending on the results of the ECT disqualification decisions. (However, the PPP has picked up three seats more than was projected late on election night, and even three seats matter in this fight.) Chart Thai leader Banharn has said publicly that his party would wait for the January 4 official announcement of results from the ECT. ANFREL COMMENDS ELECTION, WITH SOME CAVEATS -------------- ¶7. (U) Asian Network for Free Elections (ANFEL) held a press conference on December 25 to discuss the results of their observer mission. Delegates included representatives from South and Southeast Asia, including Thai members (from the Thai monitoring organization PNET.) ANFREL said that procedures had gone smoothly on election day, but highlighted their concerns with violations in the pre-election period, and with the process of the adjudication of election fraud claims. ANFREL mission head Damaso Magbual pointed to the problem of money politics. "People are scared to report vote buying ... because they fear for their own safety and doubt that anyone will be successfully prosecuted," he said in ANFREL's official statement. ANFREL criticized the continued state of martial law in many provinces. They acknowledged that it was not used in "a heavy-handed way" but said that, in Chiang Rai, they had received credible reports the army had tried to intimidate voters. They were also critical of the influence of local officials, particularly village heads, who were often vote canvassers for political parties. ANFREL raised concerns especially about these village officials serving on polling station committees, as they had observed in several provinces in the Northeast and Central provinces. ¶8. (U) Overall, ANFREL credited the ECT with "generally good administration" of the vote. They urged the ECT to tighten up the advance voting arrangements, as these were vulnerable to fraud. They noted that the ECT's many regulations, although perhaps intended to create a "level playing field," led to confusion in some cases, and overburdened the ECT with minor infractions rather than focusing on serious breaches. They encouraged the EC to investigate fraud allegations more vigorously, noting with disappointment the limited number of cases resolved so far. In this context, they discussed a case in the rural Northeastern province of Mahasarakham, in which, they reported, villagers tried to give evidence to the police about the vote-buying, and to turn in the money they received; ANFREL reported that the police "actively discouraged" the villagers. Thai election monitoring organization PNET helped the villagers bring their claim directly to the ECT in Bangkok. ¶9. (U) During the Q and A, several reporters attempted to get the ANFREL panel members to state that PPP was the most active in buying votes, but the panelists demurred. The Thai representative on the panel, referring to the Mahasarakham BANGKOK 00006257 003 OF 003 case mentioned above, said that "PPP and Chart Thai" had both been involved in buying votes in that province, and alleged that those two parties had been the predominate vote-buyers in that area of the Northeast. Another member of the group added, however, there were accusations against all parties. One distinguishing feature of vote-buying in Thailand, ANFREL pointed out, was that some parties appeared to be paying voters even in districts where they faced no real challengers. Another questioner asked whether the prevalence of vote buying pointed to the failure of the "anti-vote buying committee" set up by Deputy PM GEN (ret.) Sonthi. The Thai representative on the panel agreed, saying that in the Mahasarakham case, PNET had first contacted the anti-vote buying committee, but it had not wanted to get involved. Mission head Magbual also noted that ANFREL had raised specific cases with GEN Sonthi, but GEN Sonthi had deferred to the ECT to handle them. NEXT STEP: SENATE SELECTIONS AND ELECTIONS -------------- ¶10. (U) The constitution calls for each of the country's 76 provinces to elect one Senator to the 150-seat upper house of parliament. The remaining 74 Senators will be appointed from a selection committee composed of the heads of the country's courts and several independent commissions. On December 25, the ECT said it was prepared to hold election for 76 of the 150 Senators on March 2 and expects the new government to issue a royal decree calling for Senate elections. The ECT announced it would convene the first meeting on December 26 to work out a plan to select the country's 74 appointed Senators. COMMENT -------------- ¶11. (SBU) With 233 seats, the game is the PPP's to lose. The ECT does not appear to be backing down, however, and political tensions will remain high as the fraud adjudication process continues and the final seat tallies become clear. BOYCE