THAI ELECTIONS: PRO-THAKSIN PARTY CLOSE, BUT NO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 BANGKOK 006248 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR EAP/MLS; NSC FOR PHU E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/24/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KDEM TH SUBJECT: THAI ELECTIONS: PRO-THAKSIN PARTY CLOSE, BUT NO CIGAR REF: A. BANGKOK 6243 (UNPREDICTABLE ELECTION) ¶B. BANGKOK 6226 (TOP 5 THINGS) ¶C. BANGKOK 6182 (RECORD-SETTING VOTING) ¶D. BANGKOK 6159 (FOCUSING ON PPP) ¶E. BANGKOK 6157 (ADVANCE VOTING) Classified By: Ambassador Ralph L. Boyce, reason 1.4 (b) and (d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) Unofficial results following Thailand's December 23 election indicate that the Pro-Thaksin People's Power Party (PPP) has won 227 seats in the 480-seat parliament, but not enough for an absolute majority. (We note that this is not yet a final result.) It remains unclear if the PPP will entice smaller parties to form a coalition government, although it is in a strong position to do so. The PPP dominated in the North and Northeast, but their Democrat Party rivals performed strongly in Bangkok and the South. 42 Embassy and CG Chiang Mai observers reported minor procedural irregularities, scattered and unconfirmed rumors of vote-buying, and isolated, unconfirmed reports of intimidation by security officials, although they did not observe voter fraud. No independent observers or political party has alleged major, election swinging fraud or intimidation, and they have told us that the election appeared to be administered capably and without incident. However, there were localized reports of irregularities, and more may surface. In the run-up to the polls, there were many allegations of illicit activities by parties, particularly vote-buying. The Election Commission, after investigation these allegations, is likely to disqualify some candidates, leaving the ultimate election math difficult to predict. Meanwhile, the maneuvering to form a coalition begins in earnest. End summary. PRO-THAKSIN PARTY WINS PLURALITY IN PARLIAMENT -------------- - ¶2. (U) Unofficial election results as of 3pm local on December 24 indicate that the Pro-Thaksin People's Power Party (PPP) has won 227 seats in the 480-seat parliament, coming 14 votes short of achieving an absolute majority. (They need 241 seats to form a government in the 480-seat Parliament). The Election Commission (ECT) has not announced final "unofficial" results, and the vote results available online continue to shift slightly as the final votes are reported in and tallied. At this point, the tally stands at: PPP............227 Democrats......165 Chart Thai......40 Motherland......24 Ruam Jai Thai...11 Matchima.........7 Pracharaj........5 (not final results) On December 24, Election Commission of Thailand (ECT) officials announced that 70.3% of the Thai electorate had turned out to vote, meeting earlier government predictions of a 70% voter turnout. ¶3. (SBU) The PPP met widely held expectations of a strong performance in the pro-Thaksin North and Northeast. In the North, the PPP won 44 of 75 constituency seats while in the vote-rich Northeast, the PPP won 96 of the 135 constituency seats. Despite some recent polls which indicated the Democrat party might not do as well in its Bangkok stronghold (ref E),the party largely swept the capital by winning 27 of its 36 constituency seats. In the South, the Democrat Party won an overwhelming 49 of the 56 constituency seats. Significantly, the PPP appears to have split the 80 proportional party list seats in the parliament, with the PPP winning 34 and the Democrat Party winning 33 of these seats. Again, these numbers may shift slightly when final results are released late on December 24. BANGKOK 00006248 002 OF 004 ¶4. (SBU) In spite of PPP's strong showing, it is unclear if other smaller parties will be willing to join a coalition government led by the PPP. At 8:30 p.m. on election night, PPP leader Samak Sundaravej announced the PPP had achieved victory in the election and that he expected to become the next prime minister. He invited all other parties to join PPP in a coalition. Immediately following Samak's announcement, the Democrat Party leader called a press conference and said that the Democrats would not join a coalition with PPP. Party leader Abhisit conceded that the PPP, as the biggest vote winner, had the right to form a coalition, if it could. The PPP has invited other parties to join them, Abhisit said, the Democrats would to see what they answer. If PPP is not able to form a coalition, then the Democrats are ready to work with other parties to form a government. By law, the ECT will declare official election results for trouble-free constituencies within seven working days. The ECT has 30 days from the election to investigate the many fraud claims pending, and has the authority to issue disqualifications and order re-run elections. These disqualifications and re-runs could alter the final make-up of the parliament and possibly the coalition-forming process. OBSERVERS REPORT MINOR IRREGULARITIES -------------- ¶5. (C) 42 Embassy and ConGen Chiang Mai observers traveling in 31 provinces on December 23 took note of several minor procedural irregularities, but did not witness serious voter fraud during the day. Many of the observed irregularities included counting errors and a failure to strictly and consistently follow ECT regulations, but few of these problems are likely to have significantly affected the outcome of the vote. While allegations of fraud and malfeasance during the campaign and on election day may still surface, most observers felt the election itself was generally administered capably and without incident. ¶6. (SBU) Embassy observers encountered several independent and political party observers around the country, including the independent Thai poll watchdog group Pollwatch/P-Net in Tak, Buriram and Kon Khaen provinces, which reported some allegations of vote buying. Embassy staff also encountered observers affiliated with academic institutions, the ECT, and the media throughout the country. Paid political party observers were out in force in many constituencies and scrutinized election procedures, in particular the vote counting process. ¶7. (C) Throughout the day on December 23, we were in touch with international observers representing other diplomatic missions and NGOs who similarly reported scattered rumors of intimidation, vote-buying, and minor procedural irregularities. On the evening of December 23, we spoke with Asian Network for Free Election (ANFREL) officials who deployed 37 observers on election day. The ANFREL official indicated the group felt the election took place largely without incident, but they would call on the ECT to investigate reported irregularities, particularly vote buying. Australian Embassy officials told us on December 23 that their observers reported no obvious fraud, but believed political parties would engage in a "legal free-for-all" and allege campaigning violations by their rivals in the post-election environment. RUMORS OF VOTE BUYING, INTIMIDATION -------------- ¶8. (C) Many Embassy observers heard rumors of vote-buying prior to the election, but few interlocutors were willing to go into detail or substantiate their claims. In Lampang Province, a local businessman told us that an unnamed party had bought votes. In Samut Prakhan Province, a local government official nervously told us that he believed the Motherland Party had bought votes in his district, but said he could not go into detail. The ECT has already launched numerous investigations into pre-election vote buying, and it is likely further accusations will be lodged after the election. BANGKOK 00006248 003 OF 004 ¶9. (C) Our observers heard scattered but unconfirmed reports of military and police intimidation at some locations. A PPP official alleged that the military had kept 14 PPP supporters under house arrest in Chiang Rai on December 21 to permit other parties to buy votes (we will follow up on these reports). Embassy staff also routinely observed police and military officials assisting ECT personnel at individual polling stations, but their involvement did not appear to intimidate voters or violate election regulations. In pro-Thaksin Udon Thani province, a Thai Air Force commander at a polling station servicing a nearby military base justified the strong PPP performance at the polling station by reminding an Embassy observer that voters there "were villagers before they were airmen" whose families benefited from the Thaksin government's policies. ¶10. (C) There was some concern that officials may have suppressed voter turnout in Udon Thani province, where unofficial statistics announced by the ECT indicated that only 44% of the electorate had turned out to vote (substantially below the regional average of 62%). On December 24, the Udon Thani election commission chairwoman told an Embassy observer that she attributed the unofficial statistics to a reporting error; she was confident the actual turnout in the province would reach 75%. Later on December 24, this official told us that 76.08% of the electorate had voted in Udon Thani, and that the provincial ECT would issue a press statement later in the day to correct the public record. ¶11. (C) Embassy observers reported that ECT officials in some provinces did not allow the public to observe the counting of advance and absentee ballots that were cast on December 15 and 16 (ref A). Nevertheless, it did not appear that the ECT officials violated election regulations when counting advance votes. Anecdotal reports from two constituencies indicated that advance ballot results largely tracked the election day outcome in those constituencies, yet allegations of advance voter manipulation may still surface. Observers in Bangkok, where the largest amount of advance voting took place, found voter registers that clearly showed those voters who had voted in advance, with the voter's signature by their name, signed in a different color of ink for each day of the advance voting. POLITICAL PARTIES BEGIN JOSTLING -------------- ¶12. (C) Political party representatives offered differing opinions on election irregularities, but those who were willing to make firm statements said they were not aware of systemic fraud or election malpractice. A PPP Deputy leader accused attributed a stronger-than expected Motherland Party performance in one province to vote buying. The official also alleged that a First Army commander told his subordinates not to vote for the PPP. The PPP Secretary General also told us on December 23 that he had heard reports of discrepancies between advance voting and election day results in Bangkok. ¶13. (C) The Motherland and Chart Thai parties also told us they were not aware of major fraud or irregularities that could have affected the election results. A PPP official told ConGen Chiang Mai observers that he believes the election was fair, and attributed the strong PPP showing in the North to the public's desire for Thaksin's return. In Chiang Mai, however, the Democrat Party provincial chairman believed the election was unfair because the PPP had outspent his party "20 to one." PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS -------------- ¶14. (C) The PPP got a large plurality, as expected. They got less than the unassailable majority they had hoped for. The Democrats did much better than generally predicted, but they benefited largely from the poorer showing of smaller parties that were their potential coalition partners. BANGKOK 00006248 004 OF 004 ¶15. (C) Most striking, and most illustrative of the intractable divisions in this country, is the party list vote results. The two leading parties almost evenly split the proportional vote, with PPP getting 34 of the 80 seats, and the Democrats getting 33. Former PM Thaksin regularly pointed to the 19 million votes he got on the proportional system in 2005 as evidence of his overwhelming mandate. The Democrats are pointing to their 14-plus million proportional vote this time -- by current count, actually slightly ahead of the PPP in popular vote, although one seat behind due to the way the districts are drawn -- to show that they have the legitimacy to form a government if the PPP fails to attract a coalition partner. They argue that the proportional vote is less subject to vote-buying and other fraud that plagues the constituency votes. The Democrats are also pointing to their commanding win in Bangkok, which has important symbolic significance. ¶16. (C) PPP's strategy has been to insist that it is the biggest party and that it will form the government. This may have the effect of cowing potential opposition and deterring officials from cooperating in the ECT's investigations into fraud allegations. So far, however, no other party has announced it will jump on the PPP bandwagon. It is likely to be several days at least, and probably longer, before it is really clear how the back-room negotiations on a coalition are going. The PPP is very, very close, but not quite there yet. BOYCE