OBSERVERS, OFFICIALS READY FOR UNPREDICTABLE THAI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 BANGKOK 006243 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR EAP/MLS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/21/2017 TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM TH SUBJECT: OBSERVERS, OFFICIALS READY FOR UNPREDICTABLE THAI ELECTION REF: A. BANGKOK 6182 (RECORD-SETTING VOTING) ¶B. BANGKOK 6157 (ADVANCE VOTING) ¶C. BANGKOK 6077 (OFFICIAL BIAS) ¶D. BANGKOK 6007 (ARMY INTERFERENCE) ¶E. BANGKOK 5284 (AND THERE WERE NONE) Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission James F. Entwistle, reason 1.4 ( b) and (d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) International observers, from this Embassy, ConGen Chiang Mai, other diplomatic missions, and international organizations are preparing to deploy over 100 foreign observers to monitor the December 23 Thai general elections. One international observer group remains concerned that procedural vulnerabilities could lead to election fraud, but believed overall the Election Commission of Thailand (ECT) was able to competently administer the elections. The ECT discussed its plans to investigate election-related violations, but the ability of the ECT to quickly issue rulings and seat a parliament after the election remains unclear. ECT officials reviewed ongoing vote buying investigations, offered assurances that flooding in the South would not delay the elections, and are confident they can "restore democracy to Thailand." An outspoken election commissioner worries that a faction in the military still wanted to delay the election. Despite these and other concerns, officials remain confident that the election will take place as planned. End summary. INTERNATIONAL ELECTION OBSERVERS DISCUSS PLANS -------------- - ¶2. (C) On December 19, we met representatives of the Asian Network for Free Election (ANFREL),which is deploying approximately 37 election observers throughout the country. We discussed the results of their observation of advance voting on December 15-16 (reftel A),and their preparations for observing the December 23 general elections. ANFREL officials told us they were generally impressed with the administration of advance voting, but remained concerned that the process was vulnerable to fraud and manipulation due to the procedural administration of the vote. ANFREL's primary worries included ballot box security and the protections the Election Commission of Thailand (ECT) has implemented to prevent advance voters from voting again on December 23. On December 20, ANFREL issued a statement indicating they also remained concerned about ongoing voter confusion over new electoral procedures and allegations of vote buying. Generally, however, ANFREL told us they believed the ECT is prepared to competently administer the December 23 elections. ¶3. (C) On December 20, we conferred with other diplomatic missions who plan to observe the elections. The Australian Embassy plans to deploy eight observers in Bangkok, Nakhon Ratchasima, and Chiang Mai provinces. The Canadian Embassy does not have plans to deploy observers, but will communicate throughout the day on December 23 with their contacts in the NGO community who will observe the elections. The Japanese Embassy plans to deploy at least three teams in Bangkok. The National Democratic Institute (NDI) also plans to deploy an observer team in Chumporn and Cha-am provinces. These entities have agreed to share their observations on election day with US Embassy and ConGen Chiang Mai observers, 42 in total, who will observe the vote in 31 provinces on December ¶23. ECT AND SUPREME COURT ROLES IN FRAUD ADJUDICATION -------------- -------------- ¶4. (SBU) On December 20, IFES (formerly known as the International Foundation for Election Systems) representatives briefed us on the ECT's plans for the adjudication of fraud claims. IFES representatives pointed out that the ECT has not used its broad powers before the BANGKOK 00006243 002 OF 004 election to disqualify candidates. IFES representatives noted that four of the commissioners are judges, and one a prosecutor -- they are inclined to be cautious. The ECT had set up ten panels of five members each, who would look at each fraud claim and make a recommendation for subsequent action to the commission. Each panel will included a prosecutor, a police representative, a judge (or retired judge),a military representative, and an "independent" - usually an academic. The ECT will not have to agree with the recommendation of these panels when making its ultimate decision. The ECT had no apparent plan for prioritizing the order in which the cases are reviewed, viewing all fraud claims as equally important, IFES reported. The ECT did recognize that it could not independently investigate each case, so it plans to rule on more minor cases based on the evidence presented to the ECT (likely by provincial elections commissions or police) and will only further investigate cases that may have a major impact. ¶5. (SBU) The ECT is empowered to determine disqualifications for the first 30 days after the election, until the Parliament convenes. The ECT's decisions during this period are not subject to judicial review. After the Parliament convenes, any cases not yet ruled on must be referred to the Supreme Court. According to IFES, the court appears prepared: they have nine panels of three judges each ready to accept cases. They told IFES that they understood the need to resolve all cases in a "reasonable time" and estimated that they should finish all the cases referred to them in 45-60 days. The standard for determining that a re-run election is necessary -- either with the same candidates (yellow card) or after disqualifying one (red card) -- lies somewhere between "beyond a reasonable doubt" and "the preponderance of the evidence," one court official told IFES. Once the ECT refers a case to the Supreme Court, the accused MP "shall not perform his or her duties until the Supreme Court of Justice has dismissed said complaint," according to the Constitution. IFES representatives noted that election commissioner Sodsri, a judge, had suggested to them that it might be better for the ECT not to rule on disqualifications or re-runs, but to push most cases to the Supreme Court for judicial review. (Note: See para 10 for further on Commissioner Sodsri. End note.) ¶6. (C) Comment: We have been concerned about the possible clash between the ECT's responsibility to disqualify winners who committed fraud, and the Constitutional requirement to seat the Parliament within 30 days of the election, with at least 95 percent of the seats awarded. Based on the above, it appears that the ECT can fulfill both requirements by announcing the winners, but immediately referring any unresolved fraud cases to the Supreme Court of Justice. These individuals would be MPs, but unable to vote in the Parliament, perhaps for as long as two months. The constitution requires that the Parliament vote to select a prime minister within 30 days of convening. In theory, at least, the new government could be chosen while a number of cases are being reviewed by the court, and the affected MPs therefore unable to vote. End comment. ELECTION COMMISSION PREPARED, OPTIMISTIC -------------- ¶7. (C) On December 21, we attended an orientation session for international observers hosted by the ECT. The ECT announced that 91 international observers from 35 organizations had registered to observe the election with the ECT, including representatives of the Russian Election Commission, the Cambodian government, several Indonesian political parties, and the German Liberal Party. At the event, ECT Secretary General Suthipol Thaveechaiyagarn expressed confidence in the ability of the ECT to administer the elections in a neutral manner, investigate and adjudicate election violations, and ultimately "bring back democracy to Thailand." ¶8. (C) Sutthipol reviewed pertinent election laws with the international observers, in particular the power of the ECT BANGKOK 00006243 003 OF 004 to prevent vote buying and sanction offenders. Sutthipol revealed that the ECT had already accepted for investigation 50-60 vote fraud complaints, including one case where villagers in Maha Sarakham province reportedly received money for their votes, and then turned the money in to the ECT. The ECT then cooperated with local NGOs to transport villagers who felt unsafe to Bangkok, where they are currently under ECT protection during the investigation. Regarding this particular case of vote buying, Suttipol emphatically said that the ECT "will enforce the law strictly." (Note: Under election laws, individuals convicted of vote buying can face up to five years imprisonment, fines between $600 - $3,000 (20,000 baht - 100,000 baht, and a five year loss of voting rights. However, they are exempt from punishment if they inform the ECT. End note.) Suttipol indicated that the police would take the lead in investigating some criminal election law violations, while the ECT would be the sole agency to resolve administrative infractions. ECT: NO VOTING DELAY IN SOUTH, DESPITE FLOODS -------------- ¶9. (C) Recent heavy rains and severe flooding in the South, particularly Yala and Narathiwat provinces, have raised concerns that the voting may be delayed there. On December 21, we spoke with Narathiwat and Yala provincial officials who have attempted to cope with the flooding since December ¶7. The Narathiwat provincial ECT director expressed optimism that the election would take place as planned on December 23, despite the displacement of 70,000 citizens by the flooding. He indicated that if the flooding worsened on December 22, 41 affected polling stations would be moved no more than 100 meters to higher ground. The provincial ECT's main worry concerned approximately 45,000 Thai migrant workers in Malaysia, who may not be able to return to vote if flooding remained a problem. The Yala provincial ECT expressed confidence the rain would not delay the election or the vote counting, but indicated they had no contingency plans in place. ECT COMMISSIONER STILL WORRIED -------------- ¶10. (C) Election Commissioner Sodsri spoke briefly on December 21 to POL FSN, and reiterated her earlier concerns about efforts by a faction in the military to impede or delay Sunday's election by pressuring the election commissioners and forcing their resignation (reftel A). As this pressure has not worked so far, Sodsri claimed, the anti-Thaksin People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) was now colluding in applying pressure. (Comment: This is probably a reference to PAD's threat to return to street demonstrations if the pro-Thaksin party won the election through unfair means. End comment.) Sodsri reiterated that the ECT could not dissolve the People's Power Party (PPP) as this required a serious investigation and ultimately a court ruling. She was concerned that there could be violence orchestrated on election day by this military faction in order to derail the election process. ¶11. (C) Comment: We think it will be very hard to do anything to block the election at this point, and suspect that Sodsri may be exaggerating somewhat. Nonetheless, the very high projections for the number of seats PPP may win must be a cause of concern for those likely to be on Thaksin's list of enemies list should he return, and we know that a hard-core anti-Thaksin element is deeply opposed to holding the elections now. (reftel E). End comment. ROYAL ISSUES -------------- ¶12. (C) From a variety of sources, it is clear that the King's sister is very close to death, following a long period of hospitalization. All our contacts agree that her death would not be a sufficient cause to delay the election. The BANGKOK 00006243 004 OF 004 announcement of her death might diminish the ability of Sunday's losers to marshal street protests, as such activity would be incompatible with a period of deep mourning. It would likely also cancel public New Year celebrations. Officials are concerned about a repeat of last year's bombings on New Year's Eve, and may be relieved to have an excuse to cancel large public celebrations if the princess dies before the end of the month. BOYCE