OBSERVERS, OFFICIALS READY FOR UNPREDICTABLE THAI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 BANGKOK 006243

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EAP/MLS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/21/2017
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM TH
SUBJECT: OBSERVERS, OFFICIALS READY FOR UNPREDICTABLE THAI
ELECTION

REF: A. BANGKOK 6182 (RECORD-SETTING VOTING)

B. BANGKOK 6157 (ADVANCE VOTING)

C. BANGKOK 6077 (OFFICIAL BIAS)

D. BANGKOK 6007 (ARMY INTERFERENCE)

E. BANGKOK 5284 (AND THERE WERE NONE)

Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission James F. Entwistle, reason 1.4 (
b) and (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) International observers, from this Embassy, ConGen
Chiang Mai, other diplomatic missions, and international
organizations are preparing to deploy over 100 foreign
observers to monitor the December 23 Thai general elections.
One international observer group remains concerned that
procedural vulnerabilities could lead to election fraud, but
believed overall the Election Commission of Thailand (ECT)
was able to competently administer the elections. The ECT
discussed its plans to investigate election-related
violations, but the ability of the ECT to quickly issue
rulings and seat a parliament after the election remains
unclear. ECT officials reviewed ongoing vote buying
investigations, offered assurances that flooding in the South
would not delay the elections, and are confident they can
"restore democracy to Thailand." An outspoken election
commissioner worries that a faction in the military still
wanted to delay the election. Despite these and other
concerns, officials remain confident that the election will
take place as planned. End summary.

INTERNATIONAL ELECTION OBSERVERS DISCUSS PLANS
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2. (C) On December 19, we met representatives of the Asian
Network for Free Election (ANFREL),which is deploying
approximately 37 election observers throughout the country.
We discussed the results of their observation of advance
voting on December 15-16 (reftel A),and their preparations
for observing the December 23 general elections. ANFREL
officials told us they were generally impressed with the
administration of advance voting, but remained concerned that
the process was vulnerable to fraud and manipulation due to
the procedural administration of the vote. ANFREL's primary
worries included ballot box security and the protections the
Election Commission of Thailand (ECT) has implemented to
prevent advance voters from voting again on December 23. On
December 20, ANFREL issued a statement indicating they also
remained concerned about ongoing voter confusion over new
electoral procedures and allegations of vote buying.
Generally, however, ANFREL told us they believed the ECT is
prepared to competently administer the December 23 elections.


3. (C) On December 20, we conferred with other diplomatic
missions who plan to observe the elections. The Australian
Embassy plans to deploy eight observers in Bangkok, Nakhon
Ratchasima, and Chiang Mai provinces. The Canadian Embassy
does not have plans to deploy observers, but will communicate
throughout the day on December 23 with their contacts in the
NGO community who will observe the elections. The Japanese
Embassy plans to deploy at least three teams in Bangkok. The
National Democratic Institute (NDI) also plans to deploy an
observer team in Chumporn and Cha-am provinces. These
entities have agreed to share their observations on election
day with US Embassy and ConGen Chiang Mai observers, 42 in
total, who will observe the vote in 31 provinces on December

23.

ECT AND SUPREME COURT ROLES IN FRAUD ADJUDICATION
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4. (SBU) On December 20, IFES (formerly known as the
International Foundation for Election Systems)
representatives briefed us on the ECT's plans for the
adjudication of fraud claims. IFES representatives pointed
out that the ECT has not used its broad powers before the

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election to disqualify candidates. IFES representatives
noted that four of the commissioners are judges, and one a
prosecutor -- they are inclined to be cautious. The ECT had
set up ten panels of five members each, who would look at
each fraud claim and make a recommendation for subsequent
action to the commission. Each panel will included a
prosecutor, a police representative, a judge (or retired
judge),a military representative, and an "independent" -
usually an academic. The ECT will not have to agree with
the recommendation of these panels when making its ultimate
decision. The ECT had no apparent plan for prioritizing the
order in which the cases are reviewed, viewing all fraud
claims as equally important, IFES reported. The ECT
did recognize that it could not independently investigate
each case, so it plans to rule on more minor cases based on
the evidence presented to the ECT (likely by provincial
elections commissions or police) and will only further
investigate cases that may have a major impact.


5. (SBU) The ECT is empowered to determine disqualifications
for the first 30 days after the election, until the
Parliament convenes. The ECT's decisions during this period
are not subject to judicial review. After the Parliament
convenes, any cases not yet ruled on must be referred to the
Supreme Court. According to IFES, the court appears
prepared: they have nine panels of three judges each ready to
accept cases. They told IFES that they understood the need
to resolve all cases in a "reasonable time" and estimated
that they should finish all the cases referred to them in
45-60 days. The standard for determining that a re-run
election is necessary -- either with the same candidates
(yellow card) or after disqualifying one (red card) -- lies
somewhere between "beyond a reasonable doubt" and "the
preponderance of the evidence," one court official told IFES.
Once the ECT refers a case to the Supreme Court, the accused
MP "shall not perform his or her duties until the Supreme
Court of Justice has dismissed
said complaint," according to the Constitution. IFES
representatives noted that election commissioner Sodsri, a
judge, had suggested to them that it might be better for the
ECT not to rule on disqualifications or re-runs, but to push
most cases to the Supreme Court for judicial review. (Note:
See para 10 for further on Commissioner Sodsri. End note.)


6. (C) Comment: We have been concerned about the possible
clash between the ECT's responsibility to disqualify winners
who committed fraud, and the Constitutional requirement to
seat the Parliament within 30 days of the election, with at
least 95 percent of the seats awarded. Based on the above,
it appears that the ECT can fulfill both requirements by
announcing the winners, but immediately referring any
unresolved fraud cases to the Supreme Court of Justice.
These individuals would be MPs, but unable to vote in the
Parliament, perhaps for as long as two months. The
constitution requires that the Parliament vote to select a
prime minister within 30 days of convening. In theory, at
least, the new government could be chosen while a number of
cases are being reviewed by the court, and the affected MPs
therefore unable to vote. End comment.

ELECTION COMMISSION PREPARED, OPTIMISTIC
--------------


7. (C) On December 21, we attended an orientation session for
international observers hosted by the ECT. The ECT announced
that 91 international observers from 35 organizations had
registered to observe the election with the ECT, including
representatives of the Russian Election Commission, the
Cambodian government, several Indonesian political parties,
and the German Liberal Party. At the event, ECT Secretary
General Suthipol Thaveechaiyagarn expressed confidence in the
ability of the ECT to administer the elections in a neutral
manner, investigate and adjudicate election violations, and
ultimately "bring back democracy to Thailand."


8. (C) Sutthipol reviewed pertinent election laws with the
international observers, in particular the power of the ECT

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to prevent vote buying and sanction offenders. Sutthipol
revealed that the ECT had already accepted for investigation
50-60 vote fraud complaints, including one case where
villagers in Maha Sarakham province reportedly received money
for their votes, and then turned the money in to the ECT.
The ECT then cooperated with local NGOs to transport
villagers who felt unsafe to Bangkok, where they are
currently under ECT protection during the investigation.
Regarding this particular case of vote buying, Suttipol
emphatically said that the ECT "will enforce the law
strictly." (Note: Under election laws, individuals convicted
of vote buying can face up to five years imprisonment, fines
between $600 - $3,000 (20,000 baht - 100,000 baht, and a five
year loss of voting rights. However, they are exempt from
punishment if they inform the ECT. End note.) Suttipol
indicated that the police would take the lead in
investigating some criminal election law violations, while
the ECT would be the sole agency to resolve administrative
infractions.

ECT: NO VOTING DELAY IN SOUTH, DESPITE FLOODS
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9. (C) Recent heavy rains and severe flooding in the South,
particularly Yala and Narathiwat provinces, have raised
concerns that the voting may be delayed there. On December
21, we spoke with Narathiwat and Yala provincial officials
who have attempted to cope with the flooding since December

7. The Narathiwat provincial ECT director expressed optimism
that the election would take place as planned on December 23,
despite the displacement of 70,000 citizens by the flooding.
He indicated that if the flooding worsened on December 22, 41
affected polling stations would be moved no more than 100
meters to higher ground. The provincial ECT's main worry
concerned approximately 45,000 Thai migrant workers in
Malaysia, who may not be able to return to vote if flooding
remained a problem. The Yala provincial ECT expressed
confidence the rain would not delay the election or the vote
counting, but indicated they had no contingency plans in
place.

ECT COMMISSIONER STILL WORRIED
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10. (C) Election Commissioner Sodsri spoke briefly on
December 21 to POL FSN, and reiterated her earlier concerns
about efforts by a faction in the military to impede or delay
Sunday's election by pressuring the election commissioners
and forcing their resignation (reftel A). As this pressure
has not worked so far, Sodsri claimed, the anti-Thaksin
People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) was now colluding in
applying pressure. (Comment: This is probably a reference to
PAD's threat to return to street demonstrations if the
pro-Thaksin party won the election through unfair means. End
comment.) Sodsri reiterated that the ECT could not dissolve
the People's Power Party (PPP) as this required a serious
investigation and ultimately a court ruling. She was
concerned that there could be violence orchestrated on
election day by this military faction in order to derail the
election process.


11. (C) Comment: We think it will be very hard to do
anything to block the election at this point, and suspect
that Sodsri may be exaggerating somewhat. Nonetheless, the
very high projections for the number of seats PPP may win
must be a cause of concern for those likely to be on
Thaksin's list of enemies list should he return, and we know
that a hard-core anti-Thaksin element is deeply opposed to
holding the elections now. (reftel E). End comment.

ROYAL ISSUES
--------------


12. (C) From a variety of sources, it is clear that the
King's sister is very close to death, following a long period
of hospitalization. All our contacts agree that her death
would not be a sufficient cause to delay the election. The

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announcement of her death might diminish the ability of
Sunday's losers to marshal street protests, as such activity
would be incompatible with a period of deep mourning. It
would likely also cancel public New Year celebrations.
Officials are concerned about a repeat of last year's
bombings on New Year's Eve, and may be relieved to have an
excuse to cancel large public celebrations if the princess
dies before the end of the month.
BOYCE