RECORD-SETTING ADVANCE VOTING AHEAD OF THAI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BANGKOK 006182

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EAP/MLS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/18/2017
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM TH
SUBJECT: RECORD-SETTING ADVANCE VOTING AHEAD OF THAI
ELECTIONS

REF: A. BANGKOK 6157 (ADVANCE VOTING)


B. BANGKOK 6077 (OFFICIAL BIAS)

C. BANGKOK 6007 (ARMY INTERFERENCE)

D. BANGKOK 5914 (DISQUALIFICATIONS)

E. BANGKOK 5881 (OATHS AND INSULTS)

Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission James F. Entwistle, reason 1.4 (
b) and (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) Officials announced that a record-breaking three
million absentee and advance voters cast their
ballots December 15-16, ahead of scheduled December 23
elections. Observers lodged some procedural complaints, but
international election monitors said the vote was conducted
in a "competent manner." Political party representatives
offered different explanations for the higher-than-expected
advance voting turnout, and also pressed election officials
to promptly investigate complaints. Officials promised
speedy inquiries into reported voting irregularities. An
outspoken election commissioner complained to us that she and
other commissioners had received threats, but indicated the
Election Commission remained committed to holding elections
on schedule. A major Thai media organization plans to
conduct a parallel vote count on election day and to rapidly
and publicly disseminate election results. End summary.

RECORD-BREAKING ADVANCE VOTING
--------------


2. (U) On December 17, the Election Commission of Thailand
(ECT) announced that a record breaking 2.97 million advance
voters had cast ballots throughout the country on December
15-16 ahead of planed December 23 elections, indicating that
approximately 7% of eligible voters have already exercised
their voting rights. Of these advance voters, 1.8 million
people -- most of them in Bangkok and nearby provinces --
cast absentee votes for candidates running in other
provinces. The remaining 1.1 million advance voters on
December 15-16 were individuals who are unable to vote on
December 23 (such as poll workers). These 1.1 million
voters, who voted for candidates running in constituencies
where they normally cast their ballots, did not need to
register with the ECT in advance. Overall, 88% of the total
number of registered absentee voters turned out to vote. In
comparison, only about 350,000 absentee voters registered to
vote in the 2005 election, and less than half actually cast
absentee ballots.


3. (C) Embassy STAFF observing the advance voting on December
15 and 16 at twelve different locations in Bangkok and
surrounding provinces reported no obvious voter fraud or
visible irregularities. While we did observe overcrowding
and long lines at some polling locations, ECT officials
seemed to be processing the unprecedented workload without
incident. Embassy observers reported especially long lines
at polling areas near military installations and in
lower-income neighborhoods. In Samut Prakan Province
southeast of Bangkok, we observed several buses transporting
voters to polling stations for absentee voting. (Note:
Election laws circumscribe the ability of private individuals
and companies to provide voters transportation to the polls
-- it is unclear if the observed bus transportation violated
election laws. End note).


4. (U) On December 17, the Asian Network for Free Elections
(ANFREL),which deployed at least 32 observers to monitor
these elections, reported several "administrative errors and
inefficiencies," but generally considered the advance voting
to have been administered in a "competent manner." ANFREL
released a statement that identified the following concerns:

-- Individuals standing outside some polling stations at
Chonburi, Nonthaburi, and Pathum Thanui were able to see
voters' ballots as they were voting;

-- Four ballot boxes in Nakhon Ratchasima were not sealed

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properly on December 16;

-- Some voters did not understand new election procedures,
and voters did not appear to be well-informed about party and
candidate platforms;

-- There were allegations that employers and army officials
instructed employees and army units to vote for particular
candidates;

-- Political parties were not proactively seeking to observe
the movement of ballot boxes.


5. (C) We reached out on December 18 to prominent political
parties to solicit their views on advance voting.
Pro-Thaksin People's Power Party (PPP) Deputy Leader Yongyuth
Tiyapairat attributed the high advanced voting turnout to
military efforts designed to mobilize voters to vote for
candidates opposed to the PPP. Yongyuth expressed concerns
about the storage of ballot boxes containing ballots cast in
advance, fearing that the ballots in these boxes could be
manipulated to favor candidates supported by the COUNCIL for
National SECURITY (CNS).


6. (C) In contrast, Democrat Party spokesman Ong-ard
Klampaiboon attributed the high turnout to PPP efforts to
mobilize support from registered absentee voters from the
Northeast, who are currently working in Bangkok and
surrounding provinces. Ong-ard speculated these voters would
vote overwhelmingly for the PPP. Chart Thai Party Deputy
Leader Somsak Prisananutagul, however, did not believe any
particular political party influenced voter turnout, but
rather attributed the record-setting numbers to a heightened
level of political consciousness. Both the Democrat and PPP
officials opined that many voters wanted to take advantage of
the December 24 public holiday and voted in advance to enjoy
their long weekend.


7. (U) A few NGOs and political activists called on the ECT
to promptly investigate allegations that voters were
unlawfully transported to the polls. Activists also
expressed concerns that ECT officials in Bangkok permitted
some voters to cast advanced ballots without requesting a
written explanation, required by law, as to why these voters
were unable to vote on December 23. The media reported that
local election and government officials were initially
confused over where to store ballot boxes. Political parties
publicly demanded that the ECT ensure the integrity of ballot
boxes prior to December 23. ECT officials publicly announced
all ballot boxes would be appropriately guarded, and
announced plans to promptly investigate all complaints.
(Note: Election regulations call for the advance ballots to
be sent to the ECT of the relevant constituency. There,
ballots will be counted on election day and the totals added
to the vote count from polling units. End note.)

ELECTION COMMISSIONER THREATENED
--------------


8. (C) The political pressure is mounting, and some of those
involved in the process are showing the strain. Election
Commissioner Sodsri Sattayatham told the press over the
weekend that she had been receiving death threats. On
December 17, we got an odd message from an ECT staffer,
saying that Sodsri had left the ECT building to escape a
hostile mob, and had said she would go to the US Embassy.
Following up on these reports, we determined that a small
group of about 100 peaceful protesters had petitioned the ECT
to dissolve the pro-Thaksin PPP, based on alleged campaign
violations. We spoke to Commissioner Sodsri by phone, who in
truth was not traveling to the Embassy. Sodsri relayed her
concerns about threats she said she and the other
commissioners had been receiving. She said that one group
threatening her were those who insisted the PPP should be
dissolved. Another group she believed was behind the threats
were those who wanted the elections delayed; she believed
that some elements of the military were included in this
group, although she had no way of knowing just who was behind
the phone calls. Sodsri explained that the ECT could not

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dissolve the PPP, as this was an issue for the courts to
decide. Sodsri insisted that it would not be right to delay
the elections, pointing to the high turnout during advance
voting, which demonstrated that the Thai people were eager to
vote.


9. (C) Comment: Commissioner Sodsri is often characterized as
pro-military, but her concerns at the moment were focused on
anti-PPP partisans. Sodsri has made exaggerated claims of
threats in the past; based on our conversation, she seemed
genuinely concerned, but probably overdramatized her personal
situation. We are skeptical that such a senior official is
in real physical danger. However, her account shows the
strain put on the people trying to carry off this difficult
election. Despite Sodsri's pro-coup reputation, she seemed
very sincere in her support for holding the elections on
schedule; we expressed our strong agreement with her on this
point.

MEDIA PLANS "QUICK COUNT"
--------------


10. (SBU) Officials at the Nation Group, a prominent Thai
media organization, told us on December 14 that they plan to
deploy more than 20,000 staffers and volunteers around the
country to conduct a parallel "quick" vote count when ballots
are counted at polling stations nation-wide on December 23.
(Note: Election regulations call for election officials to
publicly count the ballots at approximately 88,000 polling
stations across the country when the polls close. The
official results are relayed up the ECT hierarchy and are
therefore slow to reach the central ECT in Bangkok. End
note.) Volunteers will feed the results of the count in
areas where they are deployed to a NATIONAL Election Center
based at Sripatum University near Bangkok, which plans to
rapidly disseminate unofficial election results to other
media outlets and to the Nation Group's web site
(www.nationmultimedia.com). The Police Department will also
likely conduct a similar parallel count for the exclusive use
of Election Commission officials.


11. (C) Comment: The Nation Group's count appears to be
independent of ECT efforts and should provide a useful
comparison for officially released ECT results. Assuming
unofficial and official counts largely mirror each other, the
Nation Group's efforts will ideally increase confidence in
the legitimacy of official election results. End comment.
BOYCE