ELECTION COMMISSION FOCUSING ON PRO-THAKSIN PARTY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BANGKOK 006159

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR PHU

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/14/2017
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM KJUS TH
SUBJECT: ELECTION COMMISSION FOCUSING ON PRO-THAKSIN PARTY

REF: A. BANGKOK 6069 (MATCHIMA PROSPECTS DIM)


B. BANGKOK 5600 (CNS DOCUMENTS)

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Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission James F. Entwistle, reason: 1.4
(b) and (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) The Election Commission (EC) has begun investigating
two high-profile complaints about acts of the pro-Thaksin
People's Power Party (PPP). The investigations will take
weeks, and a top PPP lawyer assured us PPP could not be found
to be at fault. He also told us PPP remains on track to win
200 or more seats in the coming election. The EC has cleared
the Council for National Security (CNS) of charges of
anti-PPP bias. While PPP figures often claim the five
Election Commissioners are biased against Thaksin and his
allies, other contacts question whether the EC staff members
would support their bosses in unjustified anti-PPP efforts.
End Summary.

COMPLAINTS AGAINST PPP
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2. (U) Two complaints against the pro-Thaksin People's Power
Party (PPP) have garnered significant media attention in
recent days. One case involves Sitthichai Kowsurat, a Deputy
Leader of the Motherland Party. The Election Commission (EC)
had disqualified Sitthichai from contesting the election
after receiving evidence that Sitthichai was a member of both
the Motherland Party and PPP. The Supreme Court reinstated
Sitthichai after accepting his claim that his purported
signature on a PPP membership form was a forgery. On
December 11, the EC Chairman said publicly he would file a
police complaint against PPP for committing the forgery.
According to standard procedures, the police could forward
the results of their investigation to prosecutors, who could
then pursue the matter in the courts.


3. (U) The second complaint concerns the widespread
circulation of a video compact disc with a clip of Thaksin
addressing the political environment. In Thaksin's remarks,
he complained of the "severe injustice" of his circumstances
and the "increasing hardships" facing the Thai people. He
said that PPP, and only PPP, represented his and the people's
interests, and he urged the election of PPP candidates,
implying a link between his prospective return to Thailand
and turnout for PPP in the election.


4. (U) As news of Thaksin's message spread, critics
complained that, by explicitly urging voters to cast ballots
for PPP, Thaksin was campaigning for the party. In November,
the Election Commission had issued a written opinion stating
that disenfranchised people -- such as Thaksin and 110 other
members of the former Thai Rak Thai executive board -- could
not campaign for a political party, because that was a
function reserved for party executives and their designees.
On December 12, the Election Commission appointed a committee
to examine this matter and report its finding within one
month.


5. (C) We discussed these cases with PPP Deputy Secretary
General Noppadol Pattama, who also heads Thaksin's legal
team, on December 13. Noppadol assured us that PPP could
easily show it was not at fault in both cases. PPP could
provide both eyewitness statements and samples of
Sitthichai's handwriting to establish that his signature on
the membership application was authentic. Even in the event
that investigators were to find otherwise, though, an
infraction such as that could not result in sanctions on the
party as a whole, Noppadol said.


6. (C) Noppadol also said that PPP had no involvement with
the dissemination of the VCD with Thaksin's remarks.
Furthermore, the video clip of Thaksin had been produced

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before the issuance of the royal decree on elections, which
marked the imposition of stricter rules for parties' conduct.
Both these points would be easy to establish, he said.

ELECTION PROSPECTS UPDATE
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7. (C) We also solicited an update from Noppadol on PPP's
prospects in the coming election. He said that the party
expected to win at least 200 seats in the House of
Representatives, and 220 seemed to be a realistic target.
(Note: With a total of 480 seats in the House, 241 seats will
be required to establish a new government. End Note.) When
asked about the discord within competing party Matchima
Thippathai (ref A),Noppadol said that several strong figures
from Matchima had been competing in constituencies with
viable PPP candidates. He believed the problems in Matchima
would benefit PPP more than other parties.

CNS EMERGES UNSCATHED
--------------


8. (C) The EC on December 12 also cleared the Council for
National Security (CNS) of charges that it had acted
improperly against PPP. This accusation had arisen after PPP
submitted to the EC copies of documents outlining a plan by
military figures to weaken public support for PPP (ref B).
In its decision, the EC did not address the authenticity of
the documents (which, according to press report reporting,
appeared to be largely confirmed, despite some
discrepancies). Rather, some Election Commissioners
determined that the alleged anti-PPP plan was irrelevant, as
there was no evidence the military had implemented such a
plan. Other Commissioners believed that, irrespective of its
plans or actions, the 2007 Constitution, in Article 309,
provided the CNS with immunity by declaring all its actions
to be lawful, by virtue of the 2006 Interim Constitution's
endorsement. (Comment: The former argument may be
legitimate; the latter strikes one us as troubling. End
Comment.)


9. (C) Noppadol told us that the EC's ruling in the CNS case
was "understandable" but "not very well thought out" and
unfair. He said that the EC had "let them (CNS officials)
off the hook too easily." While complaining there was no
evidence that the CNS has rescinded its plan to undermine
PPP, Noppadol also did not claim that the CNS was currently
taking active measures against his party.

VIEWS OF EC STAFF UNCLEAR
--------------


10. (C) PPP figures have frequently complained to us that the
five Election Commissioners have an anti-Thaksin and anti-PPP
bias. The EC's latest actions, while within the EC's mandate
and consistent with prescribed procedures, will likely
reinforce that view. However, numerous contacts from various
circles have told us in recent weeks that many of the EC's
staff members retain ties to or sympathy for Thaksin and his
network. Others in the EC also may prove to be objective and
nonpartisan. Our contacts have yet to claim that the entire
EC structure is predisposed against PPP, although PPP figures
remain concerned about the extent of the Commissioners'
ability to enforce what PPP perceives as a partisan agenda.

COMMENT
--------------


11. (C) Some press reports have raised the prospect of PPP's
dissolution based on the complaints now under investigation.
We consider this unlikely; the alleged infractions are not so
serious, and party dissolution, which can only be ordered by
the Constitutional Court, is not done casually. Perhaps most
importantly, these disputes should be adjudicated after the
election. If the current conventional wisdom is accurate and
PPP wins a plurality by a large margin, it may prove

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politically difficult to apply disproportionately harsh
sanctions against the party, even though some of those who
backed the 2006 coup d'etat might consider the need to do so
all the more pressing.
BOYCE