PM SURAYUD DISCUSSES ELECTIONS, BURMA, BAN KI-MOON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 006158 SIPDIS SIPDIS NSC FOR PHU E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/14/2017 TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM ASEC MOPS TH BM SUBJECT: PM SURAYUD DISCUSSES ELECTIONS, BURMA, BAN KI-MOON IN AMBASSADOR'S FAREWELL CALL REF: STATE 164897 BANGKOK 00006158 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Ambassador Ralph L. Boyce; reason: 1.4 (b) and (d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) In the Ambassador's December 13 farewell call, Surayud shared the Ambassador's hopes for a smooth election but did not offer predictions for how this would proceed Surayud indicated he sympathized with USG concerns about the draft Internal Security Act and amendments to the Foreign Business Act. He said UNSYG Ban Ki-moon had agreed in his recent visit that it would be useful to evaluate the Burmese regime's actions in an ASEAN/UN summit meeting in Bangkok in December 2008. Surayud did not believe it would be useful to link ASEAN Charter ratification to progress on Burma. He also voiced support for Army Commander Anupong Paojinda's efforts to quell violence in the southern border provinces. End Summary. ELECTIONS/BILATERAL RELATIONSHIP -------------- ¶2. (C) The Ambassador paid a farewell call on Prime Minister Surayud on December 13. The Ambassador noted he had paid farewell calls on Surayud at the end of each of his three assignments to Thailand. On this occasion, he wished to express deep appreciation both personally and on behalf of the U.S. government for the PM's personal role in ensuring the return to elected government. The Ambassador noted that he expected, from all indications, the elections would go smoothly on December 23. That, and the fact the elections were on time, were thanks to the PM's personal efforts and sacrifice. Surayud replied, "Let's wait to see if it (the election) goes well." The Ambassador noted he thought it would and noted the USG would probably comment shortly after the election on the electoral mechanics, hopefully noting that things went well and urging all to respect the system as the final results would be determined. Surayud said that was a good idea. The Ambassador told Surayud that he hoped speculation that the pro-Thaksin People's Power Party (PPP) might be dissolved (septel) was only that. The case for dissolution was not compelling, would be difficult to make and would cast the entire electoral process in a bad light. Surayud only nodded. The Ambassador told Surayud that Washington officials were discussing how to lift sanctions and get the relationship back to normal once a civilian elected government was in place. Surayud concluded the election discussion by asserting, "I'm doing my best." VARIOUS BILLS -------------- ¶3. (C) The Ambassador raised the Internal Security Act, currently before the National Legislative Assembly, and noted that, as the PM had predicted earlier, amendments to the bill improved the overall tenor of it. In any such legislation, checks and balances are crucial. Surayud said the bill was in its second reading already and several key changes had been made. In particular, Section 22 which laid out scenarios under which certain officials could circumvent the judicial system, "has been cut." The Ambassador also raised the Foreign Business Act (FBA) and said the current draft amendments seemed to be headed in a better direction and could encourage more investment (unlike earlier versions, which had caused angst in the foreign business community). The PM said he was not involved in the FBA but was following it and agreed with the Ambassador's assessment and that the confidence of both actual and potential foreign investors was crucial. He commented that the previous day's demonstration at the NLA by protesters opposed to any new legislation being passed before the election had lumped both the ISA and the FBA amendments into their complaint. Surayud averred, especially in the case of the ISA bill, that it was better to BANGKOK 00006158 002.2 OF 002 put regulations in place that the next government could revise if need be, rather than proceed with no rules in key areas. BURMA/UN/ASEAN -------------- ¶4. (C) The Ambassador asked for a readout on UNSYG Ban Ki-moon's recent visit. Surayud said he had suggested to Ban that an ASEAN/UN summit be held in Bangkok next December. It would be a venue for ASEAN to sit down with UN Burma envoy Gambari and with Ban and assess progress on Burma over the previous year. The UNSYG could then see what, if anything, the Burmese regime had accomplished on human rights and democracy in a year. ("We give Burma one year.") Surayud said Ban had liked the idea (which was intentionally not made public) and suggested the RTG work on the idea with UN staff. The Ambassador commented that elements of the PM's pitch to Ban sounded similar to ASEAN Secretary General-designate Surin Pitsuwan's "regional plus international" strategy. The Ambassador told Surayud that the U.S. wanted to see concrete action, unlike the regime's roadmap ("Because there's no road," Surayud chuckled). The Ambassador said the regime had been playing "rope a dope" with the international community since the September crackdown and had not been moving toward genuine reform at all. ¶5. (C) Surayud reacted skeptically to the idea of ASEAN member states delaying Charter ratification as a method of cajoling the Burmese regime to improve behavior (reftel). Rather, he argued, it was important that all states ratify quickly so that Surin could put in place the ASEAN human rights mechanism that hopefully would have a positive effect on events in Burma. "Delaying ratification would be counterproductive since it would suggest ASEAN does not support the human rights principles we are trying to get Burma to accept," Surayud concluded. SOUTHERN THAILAND -------------- ¶6. (C) The Ambassador asked the PM his assessment of the situation in southern Thailand, where it appeared that new Army commander Anupong's strategy changes might be having some effect. Surayud said he supported Anupong's approach to the South since it was crucial to get the level of violence down significantly so that progress on the underlying issues could be made. He felt much could be done under the existing constitution. For example, according to the PM, a fair degree of local autonomy could be implemented legally under the current constitution. COMMENT -------------- ¶7. (C) Surayud is often taciturn, and we do not believe his lack of responsiveness on election-related issues indicates reason for concern. Nevertheless, we do not take a smooth election process for granted. Surayud's comments about the possibility of some kind of local autonomy for the South are interesting, but he is unlikely to be able to accomplish much on this before he leaves office, and the next government may find it difficult to tackle this controversial issue in the near term. BOYCE