ALCOHOL-FREE ADVANCED VOTING AS THAI ELECTION NEARS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BANGKOK 006157

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EAP/MLS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/14/2017
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM TH
SUBJECT: ALCOHOL-FREE ADVANCED VOTING AS THAI ELECTION NEARS

REF: A. BANGKOK 6077 (OFFICIAL BIAS)


B. BANGKOK 6007 (ARMY INTERFERENCE)

C. BANGKOK 5914 (DISQUALIFICATIONS)

D. BANGKOK 5881 (OATHS AND INSULTS)

E. BANGKOK 5740 (CANDIDATE REGISTRATION)

Classified By: Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission James F. Entwistl
e, reason 1.4 (b) and (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) Officials indicate they are ready to manage a record
number of absentee and advanced voters who will cast their
ballots on December 15-16, ahead of scheduled December 23
elections. The Supreme Court convicted a Democrat candidate
of buying votes during the 2001 elections, thus ending his
candidacy. The government shut down a pro-Thaksin web site
after it allegedly posted a video clip advocating the return
of deposed PM Thaksin Shinawatra. A prominent pollster
questions the legitimacy of a poll of traditionally Democrat
Party-leaning Bangkok voters that surprisingly predicted the
PPP would win a majority of the capital's parliamentary
seats. PPP leaders who spoke at a December 10 Chiang Mai
rally extolled the virtues of Thaksin and emphasized that a
vote for the PPP was a vote for his return. End summary.

MILLIONS TO VOTE IN ADVANCE
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2. (C) A record 1.9 million absentee voters, most of them in
Bangkok and nearby provinces, are registered to cast their
ballots in advance throughout the country on December 15-16
(ref B). An undetermined number of voters who are unable to
vote during the December 23 elections (such as poll workers)
will also vote this weekend; this group, who are voting in
their own constituencies, did not need to register in
advance. Election Commission of Thailand (ECT) officials
tell us they are confident they can manage this added
workload. With about 700,000 absentee voters reportedly
registered in the Bangkok metropolitan area alone, this will
be a significant undertaking. (By comparison, in recent
elections about 2.2 million voters in total have turned out
to vote in Bangkok). The Secretary General of the pro-Thaksin
People's Power Party (PPP) told us on December 14 that the
PPP would deploy party officials to monitor advanced voting
even though ECT officials had not officially responded to PPP
requests to do so. EMBASSY representatives will also observe
advance voting in a few locations. The government has banned
the sale of alcohol throughout the country on December 15-16
with the intention of preventing the electorate from voting
while intoxicated; violators of the law face stiff penalties
including fines and imprisonment.

CANDIDATE CONVICTED OF VOTE BUYING
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3. (SBU) On December 13, the Supreme Court convicted Boonmak
Sirinawakul, a Democrat candidate in Ratchaburi of buying
votes during the 2001 parliamentary election. The court
revoked Boonmak's voting rights for 10 years, forcing Boonmak
to withdraw his candidacy. Two lower courts had earlier
ruled in favor of Boonmak, but the Supreme Court overturned
the lower courts' rulings after reportedly reexamining
evidence from ECT officials involved in the case.

PRO-THAKSIN WEB SITE BANNED
--------------


4. (U) The Ministry of Information and Communication
Technology (ICT) banned the pro-Thaksin web site
hi-thaksin.net on December 10 after the ECT asked the ICT to
investigate a video posted on the web site (ref A). The ECT
alleged the video, which had reportedly been removed shortly
after being posted, caused "divisions in society" by implying
that a vote for the PPP would facilitate the return of
deposed Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. On December 9,
the media reported that PPP officials denied involvement in
the posting of the video.


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POLLS PREDICT UNEXPECTED RESULTS
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5. (C) The press reported that a Ramkhamhaeng University poll
of 4,653 Bangkok voters conducted December 8-11 predicted
that the PPP would win 23 of the 32 parliamentary seats up
for grabs in the capital, although the Democrat party's
leader is the favored choice for Prime Minister. The
director of the ABAC polling unit, a well-established Thai
polling agency, distrusted the poll results and told us on
December 13 that he believed the Ramkhamhaeng poll did not
follow appropriate polling methodology, contained a flawed
sample size, and was not professionally managed. (Comment:
Relatively few polling institutions in Thailand are
considered to adhere to the highest standards of
professionalism, and all poll statistics should be considered
with skepticism. Nevertheless, this is a reminder that
Thaksin retains a faithful following in Bangkok, and the PPP
has worked to capitalize on that support. A PPP victory in
Bangkok would be a serious blow for the Democrat Party, as
they have been counting on a strong showing in Bangkok to
bolster their case to form the next government even if they
come in second in the polls. End comment.)


6. (U) Another poll had better news for the Democrats,
showing them with a slight lead over PPP nationwide in the
party list contest. According to the Bangkok University
poll, of the voters who had made up their minds, 34 percent
would give their party list vote to the Democrats, and 32
percent to PPP -- this is a reversal of most estimates, which
predict the PPP will maintain a lead in the proportional
voting. The poll also predicts about four percent of the
proportional vote will go to Chart Thai; about one percent
each would go to the other "major" parties (Motherland,
Matchima, Ruam Jai Thai/Chart Pattana, Pracharaj).
Thirty-five percent of those polled favored Democrat leader
Abhisit to be PM, 28 percent favored PPP leader Samak, and
four percent favored Chart Thai leader Banharn.


7. (U) Meanwhile, the press is also giving their "educated
guesses" of the poll results. This week, the virulently
anti-Thaksin "Nation" assessed that the Democrats were
picking up a little steam, but were still trailing PPP (139
seats to 186.) The establishment weekly magazine Matichon
predicted a wider gap, with PPP at 196 seats to the
Democrat's 126 (plus or minus 10 for each.) Both
publications put Chart Thai's total seats in the 50's,
Motherland's in the 40's, and the others in the 20's or
below.

PPP TO THAKSIN: WE MISS YOU
--------------


8. (C) PPP leader Samak Sundaravej and Deputy PPP leader
Yongyuth Tiyapairath were the featured speakers at a PPP
rally in Chiang Mai on Dec. 10, extolling the virtues of
former Prime Minister Thaksin, and emphasizing that a vote
for the PPP was a vote for his return. They told the crowd
of just under 10,000 that it was short-sighted of the Council
of National Security (CNS) to criticize Thaksin, citing in
particular its criticism of Thaksin's provision of soft loans
to Burma. Those loans, they asserted, were designed to
secure Burma's cooperation with Thailand on
counter-narcotics. They also argued that Thaksin remains
loyal to the monarchy, noting that public prosecutors had
dropped lese majeste charges against him None of the PPP's
Chiang Mai-based candidates spoke at the rally.


9. (C) Separately, while in Chiang Rai on Dec. 12, CG Chiang
Mai observed stickers conspicuously placed on the windshields
of many vehicles used for public transportation stating "We
miss Thaksin." Media representatives told CG Chiang Mai
after the December 10 rally that participants received 10
baht (30 cents) each in exchange for their participation. We
have so far been unable to independently confirm this
allegation. (Comment: PPP's public praise of Thaksin and
their message that a vote for the PPP is a vote for Thaksin
reinforces the party's belief, which analysts largely share,
that association with him will win the party votes on Dec 23.
End comment.)

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