ALCOHOL-FREE ADVANCED VOTING AS THAI ELECTION NEARS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BANGKOK 006157 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR EAP/MLS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/14/2017 TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM TH SUBJECT: ALCOHOL-FREE ADVANCED VOTING AS THAI ELECTION NEARS REF: A. BANGKOK 6077 (OFFICIAL BIAS) ¶B. BANGKOK 6007 (ARMY INTERFERENCE) ¶C. BANGKOK 5914 (DISQUALIFICATIONS) ¶D. BANGKOK 5881 (OATHS AND INSULTS) ¶E. BANGKOK 5740 (CANDIDATE REGISTRATION) Classified By: Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission James F. Entwistl e, reason 1.4 (b) and (d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) Officials indicate they are ready to manage a record number of absentee and advanced voters who will cast their ballots on December 15-16, ahead of scheduled December 23 elections. The Supreme Court convicted a Democrat candidate of buying votes during the 2001 elections, thus ending his candidacy. The government shut down a pro-Thaksin web site after it allegedly posted a video clip advocating the return of deposed PM Thaksin Shinawatra. A prominent pollster questions the legitimacy of a poll of traditionally Democrat Party-leaning Bangkok voters that surprisingly predicted the PPP would win a majority of the capital's parliamentary seats. PPP leaders who spoke at a December 10 Chiang Mai rally extolled the virtues of Thaksin and emphasized that a vote for the PPP was a vote for his return. End summary. MILLIONS TO VOTE IN ADVANCE -------------- ¶2. (C) A record 1.9 million absentee voters, most of them in Bangkok and nearby provinces, are registered to cast their ballots in advance throughout the country on December 15-16 (ref B). An undetermined number of voters who are unable to vote during the December 23 elections (such as poll workers) will also vote this weekend; this group, who are voting in their own constituencies, did not need to register in advance. Election Commission of Thailand (ECT) officials tell us they are confident they can manage this added workload. With about 700,000 absentee voters reportedly registered in the Bangkok metropolitan area alone, this will be a significant undertaking. (By comparison, in recent elections about 2.2 million voters in total have turned out to vote in Bangkok). The Secretary General of the pro-Thaksin People's Power Party (PPP) told us on December 14 that the PPP would deploy party officials to monitor advanced voting even though ECT officials had not officially responded to PPP requests to do so. Embassy representatives will also observe advance voting in a few locations. The government has banned the sale of alcohol throughout the country on December 15-16 with the intention of preventing the electorate from voting while intoxicated; violators of the law face stiff penalties including fines and imprisonment. CANDIDATE CONVICTED OF VOTE BUYING -------------- ¶3. (SBU) On December 13, the Supreme Court convicted Boonmak Sirinawakul, a Democrat candidate in Ratchaburi of buying votes during the 2001 parliamentary election. The court revoked Boonmak's voting rights for 10 years, forcing Boonmak to withdraw his candidacy. Two lower courts had earlier ruled in favor of Boonmak, but the Supreme Court overturned the lower courts' rulings after reportedly reexamining evidence from ECT officials involved in the case. PRO-THAKSIN WEB SITE BANNED -------------- ¶4. (U) The Ministry of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) banned the pro-Thaksin web site hi-thaksin.net on December 10 after the ECT asked the ICT to investigate a video posted on the web site (ref A). The ECT alleged the video, which had reportedly been removed shortly after being posted, caused "divisions in society" by implying that a vote for the PPP would facilitate the return of deposed Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. On December 9, the media reported that PPP officials denied involvement in the posting of the video. BANGKOK 00006157 002 OF 003 POLLS PREDICT UNEXPECTED RESULTS -------------- ¶5. (C) The press reported that a Ramkhamhaeng University poll of 4,653 Bangkok voters conducted December 8-11 predicted that the PPP would win 23 of the 32 parliamentary seats up for grabs in the capital, although the Democrat party's leader is the favored choice for Prime Minister. The director of the ABAC polling unit, a well-established Thai polling agency, distrusted the poll results and told us on December 13 that he believed the Ramkhamhaeng poll did not follow appropriate polling methodology, contained a flawed sample size, and was not professionally managed. (Comment: Relatively few polling institutions in Thailand are considered to adhere to the highest standards of professionalism, and all poll statistics should be considered with skepticism. Nevertheless, this is a reminder that Thaksin retains a faithful following in Bangkok, and the PPP has worked to capitalize on that support. A PPP victory in Bangkok would be a serious blow for the Democrat Party, as they have been counting on a strong showing in Bangkok to bolster their case to form the next government even if they come in second in the polls. End comment.) ¶6. (U) Another poll had better news for the Democrats, showing them with a slight lead over PPP nationwide in the party list contest. According to the Bangkok University poll, of the voters who had made up their minds, 34 percent would give their party list vote to the Democrats, and 32 percent to PPP -- this is a reversal of most estimates, which predict the PPP will maintain a lead in the proportional voting. The poll also predicts about four percent of the proportional vote will go to Chart Thai; about one percent each would go to the other "major" parties (Motherland, Matchima, Ruam Jai Thai/Chart Pattana, Pracharaj). Thirty-five percent of those polled favored Democrat leader Abhisit to be PM, 28 percent favored PPP leader Samak, and four percent favored Chart Thai leader Banharn. ¶7. (U) Meanwhile, the press is also giving their "educated guesses" of the poll results. This week, the virulently anti-Thaksin "Nation" assessed that the Democrats were picking up a little steam, but were still trailing PPP (139 seats to 186.) The establishment weekly magazine Matichon predicted a wider gap, with PPP at 196 seats to the Democrat's 126 (plus or minus 10 for each.) Both publications put Chart Thai's total seats in the 50's, Motherland's in the 40's, and the others in the 20's or below. PPP TO THAKSIN: WE MISS YOU -------------- ¶8. (C) PPP leader Samak Sundaravej and Deputy PPP leader Yongyuth Tiyapairath were the featured speakers at a PPP rally in Chiang Mai on Dec. 10, extolling the virtues of former Prime Minister Thaksin, and emphasizing that a vote for the PPP was a vote for his return. They told the crowd of just under 10,000 that it was short-sighted of the Council of National Security (CNS) to criticize Thaksin, citing in particular its criticism of Thaksin's provision of soft loans to Burma. Those loans, they asserted, were designed to secure Burma's cooperation with Thailand on counter-narcotics. They also argued that Thaksin remains loyal to the monarchy, noting that public prosecutors had dropped lese majeste charges against him None of the PPP's Chiang Mai-based candidates spoke at the rally. ¶9. (C) Separately, while in Chiang Rai on Dec. 12, CG Chiang Mai observed stickers conspicuously placed on the windshields of many vehicles used for public transportation stating "We miss Thaksin." Media representatives told CG Chiang Mai after the December 10 rally that participants received 10 baht (30 cents) each in exchange for their participation. We have so far been unable to independently confirm this allegation. (Comment: PPP's public praise of Thaksin and their message that a vote for the PPP is a vote for Thaksin reinforces the party's belief, which analysts largely share, that association with him will win the party votes on Dec 23. End comment.) BANGKOK 00006157 003 OF 003 BOYCE