FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE UPCOMING THAI ELECTION

UNCLAS E F T O SECTION 01 OF 04 BANGKOK 006089 SIPDIS SENSITIVE NOFORN SIPDIS NSC FOR PHU E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV KDEM TH SUBJECT: FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE UPCOMING THAI ELECTION REF: A. BANGKOK 5749 (ELECTION PLAYBILL) ¶B. BANGKOK 5739 (ELECTION MONITORING) BANGKOK 00006089 001.2 OF 004 (SBU/NOFORN) Following are post's responses to some of the frequently asked questions about the upcoming Thai election. * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Q: Who will be up for election on December 23? A: The December 23 election is for the 480-member House of Representatives. Of these, 400 will be elected to constituency-based seats, and 80 will be elected by votes for regional party lists. Over 4,000 people are registered as candidates in this election. * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Q: Which are the main political parties competing in this election? A: There are 39 political parties fielding candidates; the largest ones are: - The People's Power Party - The Democrat Party - The Chart Thai Party - The Motherland Party - The Ruam Chai Thai Chart Pattana Party - The Matchima Thippathai Party For more detail on these parties and their leading figures, please see ref A. * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Q: How does this coming election differ from those of previous years? A: Under the 1997 Constitution, which was in effect until the 2006 coup d'etat, the House of Representatives consisted of 500 seats: 400 from constituencies (the same number as currently),and 100 from a party list. Under the 1997 Constitution, the 400 constituency MPs were elected as the sole representatives from their constituencies. Now, under the 2007 Constitution, constituencies are larger, and there will be three MPs from a typical constituency. This change, which marks a return to pre-1997 practices, was intended to hinder vote-buying, and to reduce the advantages of large political parties. Under the 1997 constitution, the 100 party list MPs were elected off of a national party list. Now, the 80 party list MPs will be elected from eight separate regional party lists. This change was intended to ensure that party list MPs represent a more diverse group with stronger ties to voters in different regions. * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Q: What are expectations for voter turnout? A: We expect high turnout, as voting in elections is mandatory under Thai law. In 2005, voter turnout was over 72 percent. Academic opinion polling institutes predict roughly the same turnout in the coming election. * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Q: When will the election results be known? A: Unofficial, incomplete election results will be known within hours of the polls' closing (at 3:00 p.m. on election BANGKOK 00006089 002.2 OF 004 day). At least one major media organization is conducting a quick count that will shape initial public impressions. Political parties will quickly receive data from their witnesses at the polling stations (where the votes will be counted),who should report figures up their chains of command. The Election Commission must announce official results within seven days of the election, unless it is investigating alleged improprieties. In case of such investigations, the Election Commission has up to 30 days to announce official results. The Constitution specifies that the House is to hold its first session within 30 days of the election. The Constitution also specifies that the House may meet so long as 95 percent of the House members are filled. The Constitution does not indicate how to proceed if more than five percent of the House seats remain vacant more than 30 days after the election. * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Q: When will the next government be formed? A: Within 30 days of the House's first session (which, as stated above, must be within 30 days of the election), members of the House must elect from among their ranks a Prime Minister. If this does not happen during that time frame, the President of the House has 15 days to submit a name of a Prime Minister to the King for appointment. Thus, the Prime Minister must be chosen no later than 75 days after the election. * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Q: How is the Prime Minister selected? A: The Prime Minister is selected by a majority vote in the House in favor of a resolution designating that person as Prime Minister. No less than one-fifth of the current members of the House (96 members, when the House is at full strength) must endorse such a resolution in order for it to proceed to a vote. The Constitution specifies that such votes are open, and that political parties cannot require their members to vote according to party lines. The Constitution directs that, if no person receives majority support for his candidacy as Prime Minister, the President of the House is to submit to the King the name of the person who received the most votes after being put forward for House consideration. * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Q: Has there ever been a case in Thailand where a party wins a plurality but does not form a government? A: Yes, although rarely. In 1997 and 1975, parties that did not hold a plurality in the parliament were able to form a government with one of their own members as Prime Minister. There also have been exceptional occasions when parties supported military figures who did not have seats in parliament to become Prime Minister. The last such experience was sufficiently negative that the current Constitution prohibits such a practice, requiring that the Prime Minister be an elected member of the House. * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Q: To whom can people report electoral improprieties? A: Any voter can petition the Election Commission if he/she BANGKOK 00006089 003.2 OF 004 believes that an election was unfair. The Election Commission is charged with investigating allegations and applying appropriate remedies. If the Election Commission reaches its conclusion in the matter prior to its announcement of the election results, the Election Commission's determination is final. If the complaints arise after the Election Commission has already announced the election results, the Election Commission is to turn the matter over to the Supreme Court, which will conduct its own investigation and determination of the matter. * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Q: What other powers does the Election Commission have? A: The Constitution grants the Election Commission enormous power to do whatever is necessary to ensure an honest and fair election. This includes (but is not limited to): - Establishing the rules for the election; - Issuing orders to national and local government officials to ensure their cooperation with election-related efforts; - Investigating complaints, and searching premises without warrants if necessary; - Seizing assets of persons who are implicated in vote-buying; - Ordering new elections when necessary; - Disqualifying candidates or applying other sanctions to them when warranted; and - Filing a motion with the Constitutional Court to dissolve a political party whose leadership promotes unfair or dishonest election practices through acts of commission or omission. * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Q: Who are the Election Commission members, and who appointed them? A: There are five Election Commissioners. They were selected by the Senate in early September 2006, prior to the military coup d'etat. Prior to becoming Election Commissioners, four were judges and one was a state attorney. * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Q: Which independent organizations will observe the election? A: Various independent organizations are mounting observation efforts, although it remains unclear whether any one of them will provide thorough coverage nationwide. Multiple Thai NGOs, including the Lawyer's Council of Thailand, the Thai Election Network, and the Institute for Democracy (ref B), plan to field thousands of volunteer observers, covering every province, with financial assistance from the Election Commission. Pollwatch, an independent Thai election watchdog, plans to field at least 1,000 observers in southern provinces, as well as an undetermined number of observers elsewhere. The international organization ANFREL, with partial funding from the Canadian government and the Asia Foundation, will deploy at least 32 international observers in 17 provinces. Political parties also plan to have representatives monitor election day activities. The U.S. Embassy and Consulate General in Chiang Mai will field approximately 20 observer teams in various provinces. * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Q: What roles do deposed Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra and the 2006 coup leaders have in this election? A: Thaksin has no formal role in the coming election, although PPP, one of the major parties, has made clear its allegiance to him and his policies. BANGKOK 00006089 004.2 OF 004 Of the six leaders of the security forces who composed the initial coup council, only Sonthi Boonyaratglin, who headed the coup council, has a formal role relating to the election. He currently serves as Deputy Prime Minister and head of a "National Committee to Prevent Vote-Buying." The precise scope of this committee's duties is unclear. Another member of the original coup council, General (ret) Ruengroj Mahasaranond, has become a Deputy Leader of the (pro-Thaksin) PPP, but he is not running for election. BOYCE