THAI ELECTION BODY GRAPPLES WITH FRAUD, ARMY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 006007

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EAP/MLS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/30/2017
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM TH
SUBJECT: THAI ELECTION BODY GRAPPLES WITH FRAUD, ARMY
INTERFERENCE

REF: A. BANGKOK 5914 (DISQUALIFICATIONS)


B. BANGKOK 5881 (OATHS AND INSULTS)

C. BANGKOK 5740 (CANDIDATE REGISTRATION)

D. BANGKOK 5600 (MILITARY INTERFERENCE)

E. BANGKOK 5578 (ELECTION SEASON)

Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission James F. Entwistle, reason 1.4 (
b) and (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (SBU) On November 25 and 27, candidates competing under
the pro-Thaksin People's Power Party (PPP) banner in the
northern city of Chiang Rai accused the security forces of
raiding homes in the area to intimidate PPP candidates and
voters; however, provincial officials denied the raids were
politically motivated. Although the police claimed a leaked
internal poll predicting a PPP plurality in the upcoming
December 23 election was merely an "assessment," an Election
Commission of Thailand (ECT) official called for a ban on
polling by government agencies. In addition to reports of
progress on 41 ECT malfeasance investigations, the press
reported that an ECT panel, which had been investigating an
alleged military plan to subvert the PPP's election
prospects, narrowly concluded that the army "interfered" in
politics; this led Prime Minister Surayud to state publicly
he might remove Deputy PM Sonthi Boonyaratglin from a
position giving him a role in election issues. A record
four-fold increase in the number of registered absentee
voters could impact closely contested races. End summary.

POLITICAL PARTY ALLEGES MILITARY HARASSMENT
--------------


2. (SBU) Since November 25, the press have reported on a
series of alleged police and army raids in areas loyal to the
pro-Thaksin People's Power Party (PPP) in the northern
province of Chiang Rai. On November 25, the sister of PPP
deputy leader and Chiang Rai favorite son Yongyuth
Tiyapairath complained to the media that 100 members of the
security forces intimidated PPP supporters by invading homes
in the district. On November 27, PPP candidates in Chiang
Rai complained that the security forces raided seven
additional areas in the city in order to "harass" PPP
candidates.


3. (C) On November 25, Yongyuth accused army generals working
with the Council for National Security (CNS) of masterminding
the raids. On November 27, PPP candidate Samart Kaewmeechai
told the media that police raided the home of his assistant
in order to "bully" him. In response, CNS General Somjet
Boonthanom called Yongyuth a "street dog" who was alleging
military abuses to garner public sympathy ahead of the
December 23 elections. Royal Thai Army Supreme Commander
Boonsrang Niampradit called on Yongyuth to provide evidence
to support his allegations. On November 26, the Chiang Rai
police commander told the press that the raids were intended
to "search for and arrest illegal immigrants from Burma,"
rather than intimidate politicians. (Comment: We will
follow-up to try to clarify exactly what happened, but this
is clearly a serious allegation and the government response
so far is not convincing. End comment.)

POLICE ELECTION "POLL" STIRS CONTROVERSY
--------------


4. (SBU) A leaked Police Special Branch analysis released to
the public on November 26 predicted that the PPP would win
219 seats in the new parliament, while the competing
Democrat, Chart Thai, and Motherland parties would win 121,
57, and 40 seats respectively. Police officials later
claimed that these numbers were merely a "general assessment"
rather than based on scientific polling. The leak has
generated substantial controversy over the appropriateness of
pre-election polls sponsored by government agencies,
especially as news of the police poll emerged shortly after
the leak of a similar, allegedly Army-sponsored opinion poll

BANGKOK 00006007 002 OF 002


that also predicted a PPP election victory (reftel A). On
November 28, an Election Commission of Thailand (ECT)
official announced that the ECT will consider a pre-election
ban of government-sponsored opinion polling.

ECT PANEL: MILITARY "INTERFERED" IN POLITICS
--------------


5. (U) On November 28, an ECT panel concluded an
investigation into PPP leader Samak Sundaravej's claim that
certain CNS documents provide evidence of an effort by the
military to subvert the PPP (ref D). According to press
reports, a narrow majority on the investigative committee
believed the military intended to "interfere in politics,"
although the panel members were unable to conclude if the
documents in question were legitimate. The press quoted
unnamed sources as saying the ECT would likely defer to the
Constitutional Court to determine the documents'
authenticity. Sources also said any decision to punish
military officials involved in drafting the documents would
also be up to the court. On November 29, Prime Minister
Surayud Chulanont said he would remove retired General and
Deputy Prime Minister Sonthi Boonyaratglin from the
leadership of a prominent counter-vote buying committee (ref
E) if the ECT were to recommend his dismissal.


6. (U) On November 27 an ECT official announced the agency
would investigate 41 complaints of election law violations,
out of a total of 136 complaints the agency had received.
The ECT official added that 61 of these complaints concerned
vote-buying allegations, predominantly from the greater
Bangkok metropolitan area. On November 25, an ECT
Commissioner also said that the ECT would shortly announce
the result of its investigation into allegations that a
Nakhon Ratchasima PPP candidate allegedly gave money to
voters by pinning bank notes on election calendars.

RECORD NUMBER OF ABSENTEE VOTERS
--------------


7. (SBU) On November 23, a Ministry of Interior official told
us that 1.9 million voters (approximately 4.2% of the Thai
electorate) had registered for advance and absentee voting
for the upcoming elections, representing a nearly four-fold
increase from the most recent election in 2006. The official
indicated that almost 60% of these voters registered from
Bangkok and nearby provinces. The capital hosts a large
migrant worker population from provinces in Thailand's
Northeast "Isaan" region. Many constituencies in this
voter-rich area are hotly contested, and it is conceivable
that these absentee votes could influence the outcome of some
races.


8. (SBU) The vast majority of absentee voters will cast their
ballots in advance at polling stations nationwide on December
15 and 16. (Approximately 79,000 Thai expatriates have
reportedly registered to cast votes overseas in Thai
diplomatic missions.) Ballots cast in advance will then be
transported to relevant polling stations throughout the
country prior to December 23 and will be counted with other
ballots cast on election day. An ECT official told us on
November 23 that the ECT has devised a plan to efficiently
distribute absentee ballots prior to election day.


9. (SBU) Comment: On the one hand, the increase in absentee
voters is a positive sign of interest in the election. On
the other hand, the large number of absentee ballots presents
possible opportunities for fraud. We will continue to
monitor this issue closely and encourage Thai NGOs monitoring
the election to remain alert to potential absentee ballot
fraud. End comment.
BOYCE