THAI POLITICAL PARTIES: ELECTION PLAYBILL

UNCLAS E F T O SECTION 01 OF 03 BANGKOK 005749 SIPDIS C O R R E C T E D C O P Y (DECL DELETED) SENSITIVE NOFORN SIPDIS NSC FOR PHU E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV KDEM TH SUBJECT: THAI POLITICAL PARTIES: ELECTION PLAYBILL BANGKOK 00005749 001.4 OF 003 Classified By: Ambassador Ralph L. Boyce, reason: 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (SBU/NF) As the December 23 election approaches, post provides the following brief profiles of the most prominent political parties in Thailand. We caution that the seat projections are extremely unscientific, and the campaign season is just beginning. They are provided to give a rough idea of the relative strengths of the parties, as assessed by a variety of contacts and media sources. ================================= PARTY NAME: People's Power Party. PARTY LEADER: Samak Sundaravej, former Bangkok Governor. 2007 PROJECTION (Conventional Wisdom): Likely to win a plurality with 200 seats, plus or minus a few dozen. GEOGRAPHIC STRONGHOLDS: Northern and Northeastern Thailand. PARTY BACKGROUND: A previously obscure and insignificant party, PPP became the new home for scores of leading Thai Rak Thai (TRT) figures after the dissolution of TRT in May. PPP currently is the sole party that has publicly shown its loyalty to deposed PM Thaksin (Samak said publicly he was Thaksin's "nominee"). It also advocates continuing TRT's hallmark populist policies. ================================= PARTY NAME: Democrat Party. PARTY LEADER: Abhisit Vejjajiva, former legislator with a PhD from Oxford. 2007 PROJECTION (Conventional Wisdom): Likely to place second to PPP with 120 seats, plus or minus 20. GEOGRAPHIC STRONGHOLDS: Southern Thailand, where the DP is dominant, and Bangkok. PARTY BACKGROUND: The DP is Thailand's oldest party, with well established traditions. When the DP last held the reins of government (from 1997-2001),a capable, technocratic team helped Thailand to recover from the Asian financial crisis. Some Thais view the DP as too rigid, bureaucratic, and elitist. ================================= PARTY NAME: Chart Thai (translates as "Thai Nation," but invariably referred to by its Thai name in the English press). PARTY LEADER: Banharn Silapa-Archa, former Prime Minister (1995-1996). 2007 PROJECTION (Conventional Wisdom): 45 seats, plus or minus 10. GEOGRAPHIC STRONGHOLDS: Parts of central Thailand, with inroads into the North and Northeast. PARTY BACKGROUND: Chart Thai is known for reflecting the notorious pragmatism of its Party Leader, on whom the party depends for its continued viability. Chart Thai is currently aligned with the Democrat Party and against PPP; Banharn has been publicly supportive of the coup and critical of Thaksin. In recent months, Chart Thai has picked up momentum by absorbing the (very small) Mahachon Party and attracting some high profile former Thai Rak Thai figures. ================================= PARTY NAME: For the Motherland Party ("Peua Paendin"). BANGKOK 00005749 002.4 OF 003 PARTY LEADER: Suwit Khunkitti, former Deputy Prime Minister in the Thaksin, Chuan, and Chavalit administrations. 2007 PROJECTION (Conventional Wisdom): 35 seats, plus or minus 15. GEOGRAPHIC STRONGHOLDS: Principally in portions of the Northeast. PARTY BACKGROUND: The Motherland Party was formed with former Thai Rak Thai figures at its core; their network provides the bulk of the party's support in the Northeast. The group also includes Bangkok-based former TRT celebrities, such as former Foreign Minister Surakiart Sathirathai and former spokesman Suranand Vejjajiva. However, the figures associated with this party claim to represent neutrality in this coming election, neither pro- nor anti-Thaksin. Although just launched, the party is showing some momentum, and appears to be well-funded. Other figures associated with the party include: - Retired General Pallop Pinmanee, controversial hardliner on South issues. His colorful past includes participation in several coups during the 1980's; - Waemahadi Waedaoh, respected doctor from the far South who was arrested in 2003 on suspicion of links to Jemaah Islamiyah; charges were dismissed in 2005. He is a member of the current interim legislature; - Vatana Asavahame, whose reputation was damaged by public revelations in the early 1990's that he was ineligible for a U.S. visa because he had profited from the drug trade. ================================= PARTY NAME: Matchima Thippathai. PARTY LEADER: Thanaporn Sriyakul, a close aide to former TRT Labor Minister Somsak Thepsutin. 2007 PROJECTION (Conventional Wisdom): 20 seats, plus or minus 10. GEOGRAPHIC STRONGHOLDS: Principally in portions of the Northeast. PARTY BACKGROUND: Matchima Thippathai has at its core a faction of Thai Rak Thai politicians associated with Somsak Thepsutin, who was banned from politics for five years after the May 2007 dissolution of TRT. Some Somsak loyalists appear to have deserted him to join the Motherland party, however. Businessman Prachai Leophairatana, an ardent Thaksin foe and supporter of last year's anti-Thaksin demonstrations, has assumed a leading position in the party, although the Election Commission has not yet recognized his assumption of the formal position of Party Leader. ================================= PARTY NAME: Ruam Jai Thai Chart Pattana. PARTY LEADER: Former Army Commander Chettha Thanacharo. 2007 PROJECTION (Conventional Wisdom): 20 seats, plus or minus 10. GEOGRAPHIC STRONGHOLDS: Principally in Nakhon Ratchasima (Khorat) province (in the Northeast),with inroads of undetermined strength elsewhere. PARTY BACKGROUND: Ruam Jai Thai Chart Pattana resulted from a merger of two political groups, both headed by former Thai Rak Thai figures banned from politics for five years after the May 2007 dissolution of TRT: The "Ruam Jai Thai" group of economic policymaker Somkid Jatusripitak, and the "Chart BANGKOK 00005749 003.4 OF 003 Pattana" group of Suwat Liptapanlop. (General Chettha also served a stint as Thaksin's Defense Minister.) Somkid provides a public image that appeals to some Bangkok residents, while Suwat provides a strong group of former MPs in Nakhon Ratchasima. Despite a stint as Thaksin's Defense Minister, Chettha does not have strong experience in party politics; he is assisted by his Secretary General, Pradit Phataraprasit, a wealthy businessman and former Democrat Party Secretary General. ================================= PARTY NAME: Pracharaj Party. PARTY LEADER: Veteran politician Sanoh Thienthong. 2007 PROJECTION (Conventional Wisdom): Five seats, plus or minus two. GEOGRAPHIC STRONGHOLDS: Sanoh's home province of Sa Kaeow, in eastern Thailand. PARTY BACKGROUND: Sanoh formed this party in 2006, prior to the coup, after he split from Thai Rak Thai. He has been unable to draw significant figures to his party and has suffered from recent defections. The party currently has few assets other than Sanoh's name and his family's prominence in Sa Kaeow; however, it receives attention because Sanoh is a longtime political deal-maker who credibly claims to have played a kingmaker role in the past. ================================= ¶2. (U) There are about 65 registered parties in Thailand, although many of these are inactive and will not field candidates in this election. Eighteen parties registered on November 7, the first day to register party list candidates. The candidates will compete for 400 constituency seats, and 80 party list seats, (eight regions each electing 10 MPs). BOYCE