THAI ELECTION MONITORING: A WORK IN PROGRESS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BANGKOK 005739

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EAP/MLS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/08/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM TH
SUBJECT: THAI ELECTION MONITORING: A WORK IN PROGRESS

REF: A. BANGKOK 5555 (ELECTION MONITORING PLANS)


B. BANGKOK 4687 (EU OBSERVER SPAT)

Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission James F. Entwistle, reason 1.4 (
b) and (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) A new organization with an apparently pro-Thaksin
leaning, founded by a group of Thai academics, plans to field
thousands of election observers and conduct pre-election
polling in advance of Thailand's December 23 general
election. The organization expects to join a growing
pantheon of 197 NGO election observer groups, including the
well-regarded Lawyers Council of Thailand, which will receive
Election Commission of Thailand (ECT) funding. Political
parties will also field hundreds of election observers in
areas of concern and provide witnesses at a vast number of
polling stations. No large-scale international monitoring is
planned, but some diplomatic missions including this Embassy
will field teams, as will a few small international NGOs.
The combined efforts of these groups should help us to assess
the election's legitimacy, which will depend not only on what
happens on the day of the vote, but also on critical actions
before and after. End summary.

FILLING THE POLLWATCH GAP
--------------


2. (SBU) The decision by Pollwatch/P-net, a prominent Thai
election monitoring organization, to sever ties with the
Election Commission of Thailand (ECT) after a public spat
with an ECT commissioner (reftel A) has prompted a group of
academics to form a new organization to monitor the upcoming
December 23 general election. The newly-formed Institute for
Democracy, led by Ramkhamhaeng University Political Science
Professor Dr. Polsak Chirakraisiri and consisting of
academics from other Thai universities, intends to field
7,600 volunteer election monitors throughout the country,
conduct three public opinion polls leading up to the
election, and staff a voter fraud complaint center in Bangkok
on election day.


3. (SBU) At a November 7 meeting, Polsak told us his
organization will draw on a network of 100 Ramkhamhaeng
University alumni and supporters in Bangkok and in each of
Thailand's 75 provinces to conduct surveys of the populace in
mid-November, early December and on December 22 in order to
compare official government election results with the group's
"scientific" polling data. In each province, these
volunteers will register as an official election observing
NGO with provincial Election Commissions in order to be
eligible for ECT funding, according to Polsak. Polsak added
that these organizations will, in turn, report election day
malfeasance to a complaint center in Bangkok, which will
subsequently convey these allegations for investigation by
the ECT. Polsak expects provincial Election Commissions to
provide $2.24 million (76 million baht) for monitoring
activities, while donations will cover the expected $29,600
(1 million baht) in administrative costs to conduct the
opinion polls and staff the complaint center.


4. (C) While Polsak's organization is a welcome addition to
the pantheon of groups planning to monitor the December 23
elections, it remains to be seen whether this new entity will
be effective or independent in its observations. Polsak
himself expressed strong opinions that implied his
organization was biased in favor of the pro-Thaksin People's
Power Party (PPP). Polsak said his organization would focus
on unearthing evidence of military interference that prevents
PPP candidates, whom "the people want to win," from receiving
votes in the election. Polsak said his group would not focus
on reporting vote-buying, a problem that has traditionally
plagued Thai elections. Polsak added that he had yet to
begin any fundraising efforts in earnest, and that he had not
received official approval from the ECT to monitor the
elections, although he expected such approval to be
forthcoming shortly.


BANGKOK 00005739 002 OF 003


ELECTION COMMISSION NAMES PARTNER NGOS
--------------


5. (SBU) On November 5, the ECT released more detailed
information on organizations which have been approved to
monitor the elections. The ECT will partner with nine NGOs,
including the widely respected Lawyer's Council of Thailand,
to provide nationwide election monitoring on December 23.
Other less-known organizations in this group include the Thai
Election Network, People's Constitution Association, and
several media and academic-oriented institutions. The ECT
has asked these organizations to submit an election
observation proposal and a budget request for funding
consideration.


6. (SBU) The ECT also released a comprehensive list of 188
smaller NGOs that would monitor the election in individual
provinces or groups of provinces. Many of these
"second-tier" organizations represent a broad range of Thai
civil-society, including groups like fraternal organizations,
local teacher associations, and community activists. While
these groups will all receive a yet-to-be determined funding
allocation by provincial election commissions, some, such as
the IFES-funded Population and Community Development
Association (PDA),also expect to receive funding from
additional sources.

POLITICAL PARTY MONITORS
--------------


7. (SBU) Political parties also have the right to have
observers in each polling station. The degree to which they
exercise this right appears to depend at least in part on the
local constituent candidate, and his ability to mobilize
supporters for this job. Under the 1997 Constitution and its
associated election laws, the ballot boxes were all brought
to the provincial capital, the ballots consolidated, and the
vote tabulated there. This cumbersome process was instituted
to deter vote-buying, since no one could know whether a
particular community had voted for the candidate who paid
them. It had several disadvantages: ballot boxes could be
tampered with while in transit, and the counting itself was
difficult to monitor, as dozens of teams worked
simultaneously counting the ballots until late into the
night. In this election, votes will be counted at each
polling station. Anyone, credentialed or not, will be able to
view the vote count and tally, as this is done at the polling
station as soon as the polls close.


8. (SBU) During recent meetings with candidates in one rural
area, the politicians expressed satisfaction with the new
procedures. They confirmed that they would have their
observers at the polls; these would call in the results from
each station so the candidate could keep his own tally. Each
candidate is entitled to two observers at each polling place.
With the new multi-member districts, many candidates will
have fellow party members also running in their districts,
competing for two or three available seats. One PPP
candidate expected each polling station in his constituency
to have six monitors from his party -- two from each
candidate.

ADDITIONAL PLAYERS WAITING IN THE WINGS
--------------


9. (SBU) The Asian Network for Free Elections (ANFREL),with
support from the Asia Foundation, will deploy 32 short-term
international monitors. Several diplomatic missions have
expressed an interest in observing, and in coordinating with
about fifteen US Embassy observer teams that will work around
the country. We also expect international media interest to
be high.

COMMENT
--------------


10. (C) An increasing number of Thai groups -- some more
credible than others - have announced plans to observe the
elections. Thus far, no large international monitoring
organizations have announced plans to mount an effort in

BANGKOK 00005739 003 OF 003


Thailand. Nevertheless, the combined efforts of
ECT-sponsored monitors, political party observers,
international NGOs, and a largely free press should provide a
reasonably reliable picture of election day operations. We
will encourage election observers to increase their
effectiveness by sharing information and coordinating their
efforts to the maximum degree possible. We also remain
mindful that there are many factors aside from the
election-day polling station mechanics that have bearing on
the legitimacy of this return to democratic governance.
BOYCE