THAI ELECTION MONITORING: A WORK IN PROGRESS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BANGKOK 005739 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR EAP/MLS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/08/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM TH SUBJECT: THAI ELECTION MONITORING: A WORK IN PROGRESS REF: A. BANGKOK 5555 (ELECTION MONITORING PLANS) ¶B. BANGKOK 4687 (EU OBSERVER SPAT) Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission James F. Entwistle, reason 1.4 ( b) and (d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) A new organization with an apparently pro-Thaksin leaning, founded by a group of Thai academics, plans to field thousands of election observers and conduct pre-election polling in advance of Thailand's December 23 general election. The organization expects to join a growing pantheon of 197 NGO election observer groups, including the well-regarded Lawyers Council of Thailand, which will receive Election Commission of Thailand (ECT) funding. Political parties will also field hundreds of election observers in areas of concern and provide witnesses at a vast number of polling stations. No large-scale international monitoring is planned, but some diplomatic missions including this Embassy will field teams, as will a few small international NGOs. The combined efforts of these groups should help us to assess the election's legitimacy, which will depend not only on what happens on the day of the vote, but also on critical actions before and after. End summary. FILLING THE POLLWATCH GAP -------------- ¶2. (SBU) The decision by Pollwatch/P-net, a prominent Thai election monitoring organization, to sever ties with the Election Commission of Thailand (ECT) after a public spat with an ECT commissioner (reftel A) has prompted a group of academics to form a new organization to monitor the upcoming December 23 general election. The newly-formed Institute for Democracy, led by Ramkhamhaeng University Political Science Professor Dr. Polsak Chirakraisiri and consisting of academics from other Thai universities, intends to field 7,600 volunteer election monitors throughout the country, conduct three public opinion polls leading up to the election, and staff a voter fraud complaint center in Bangkok on election day. ¶3. (SBU) At a November 7 meeting, Polsak told us his organization will draw on a network of 100 Ramkhamhaeng University alumni and supporters in Bangkok and in each of Thailand's 75 provinces to conduct surveys of the populace in mid-November, early December and on December 22 in order to compare official government election results with the group's "scientific" polling data. In each province, these volunteers will register as an official election observing NGO with provincial Election Commissions in order to be eligible for ECT funding, according to Polsak. Polsak added that these organizations will, in turn, report election day malfeasance to a complaint center in Bangkok, which will subsequently convey these allegations for investigation by the ECT. Polsak expects provincial Election Commissions to provide $2.24 million (76 million baht) for monitoring activities, while donations will cover the expected $29,600 (1 million baht) in administrative costs to conduct the opinion polls and staff the complaint center. ¶4. (C) While Polsak's organization is a welcome addition to the pantheon of groups planning to monitor the December 23 elections, it remains to be seen whether this new entity will be effective or independent in its observations. Polsak himself expressed strong opinions that implied his organization was biased in favor of the pro-Thaksin People's Power Party (PPP). Polsak said his organization would focus on unearthing evidence of military interference that prevents PPP candidates, whom "the people want to win," from receiving votes in the election. Polsak said his group would not focus on reporting vote-buying, a problem that has traditionally plagued Thai elections. Polsak added that he had yet to begin any fundraising efforts in earnest, and that he had not received official approval from the ECT to monitor the elections, although he expected such approval to be forthcoming shortly. BANGKOK 00005739 002 OF 003 ELECTION COMMISSION NAMES PARTNER NGOS -------------- ¶5. (SBU) On November 5, the ECT released more detailed information on organizations which have been approved to monitor the elections. The ECT will partner with nine NGOs, including the widely respected Lawyer's Council of Thailand, to provide nationwide election monitoring on December 23. Other less-known organizations in this group include the Thai Election Network, People's Constitution Association, and several media and academic-oriented institutions. The ECT has asked these organizations to submit an election observation proposal and a budget request for funding consideration. ¶6. (SBU) The ECT also released a comprehensive list of 188 smaller NGOs that would monitor the election in individual provinces or groups of provinces. Many of these "second-tier" organizations represent a broad range of Thai civil-society, including groups like fraternal organizations, local teacher associations, and community activists. While these groups will all receive a yet-to-be determined funding allocation by provincial election commissions, some, such as the IFES-funded Population and Community Development Association (PDA),also expect to receive funding from additional sources. POLITICAL PARTY MONITORS -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Political parties also have the right to have observers in each polling station. The degree to which they exercise this right appears to depend at least in part on the local constituent candidate, and his ability to mobilize supporters for this job. Under the 1997 Constitution and its associated election laws, the ballot boxes were all brought to the provincial capital, the ballots consolidated, and the vote tabulated there. This cumbersome process was instituted to deter vote-buying, since no one could know whether a particular community had voted for the candidate who paid them. It had several disadvantages: ballot boxes could be tampered with while in transit, and the counting itself was difficult to monitor, as dozens of teams worked simultaneously counting the ballots until late into the night. In this election, votes will be counted at each polling station. Anyone, credentialed or not, will be able to view the vote count and tally, as this is done at the polling station as soon as the polls close. ¶8. (SBU) During recent meetings with candidates in one rural area, the politicians expressed satisfaction with the new procedures. They confirmed that they would have their observers at the polls; these would call in the results from each station so the candidate could keep his own tally. Each candidate is entitled to two observers at each polling place. With the new multi-member districts, many candidates will have fellow party members also running in their districts, competing for two or three available seats. One PPP candidate expected each polling station in his constituency to have six monitors from his party -- two from each candidate. ADDITIONAL PLAYERS WAITING IN THE WINGS -------------- ¶9. (SBU) The Asian Network for Free Elections (ANFREL),with support from the Asia Foundation, will deploy 32 short-term international monitors. Several diplomatic missions have expressed an interest in observing, and in coordinating with about fifteen US Embassy observer teams that will work around the country. We also expect international media interest to be high. COMMENT -------------- ¶10. (C) An increasing number of Thai groups -- some more credible than others - have announced plans to observe the elections. Thus far, no large international monitoring organizations have announced plans to mount an effort in BANGKOK 00005739 003 OF 003 Thailand. Nevertheless, the combined efforts of ECT-sponsored monitors, political party observers, international NGOs, and a largely free press should provide a reasonably reliable picture of election day operations. We will encourage election observers to increase their effectiveness by sharing information and coordinating their efforts to the maximum degree possible. We also remain mindful that there are many factors aside from the election-day polling station mechanics that have bearing on the legitimacy of this return to democratic governance. BOYCE