THAI KING LEAVES HOSPITAL; SUCCESSION MECHANICS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BANGKOK 005718

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR PHU

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/07/2017
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM TH
SUBJECT: THAI KING LEAVES HOSPITAL; SUCCESSION MECHANICS

REF: A. BANGKOK 5522 (GOSSIP)

B. 04 BANGKOK 4633 (CHAKRI SUCCESSION)

Classified By: Ambassador Ralph L. Boyce, reason: 1.4 (b) and (d).

SUMMARY
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1. (C) Thai King Bhumibol left the hospital under his own
power on November 7. His return to the Palace enables many
Thais to put aside for the moment anxiety about the
transformation of Thai society that will take place when he
leaves the scene. The Constitution and the 1924 Palace Law
on Succession have established procedures for succession in
the event of the King's death. Under current circumstances,
these procedures should lead to the Crown Prince's ascension
to the throne, but there is no precedent for royal succession
in the modern era, and it remains unclear how succession
might play out. End Summary.

KING LEAVES HOSPITAL
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2. (U) At mid-day on November 7, King Bhumibol left the
Bangkok hospital where he had received medical care since
suffering a minor stroke on October 13 and returned to
Chitralada Palace. Thai television news footage showed the
King, moving steadily under his own power (but relying on a
wheeled walker) as he walked from the hospital to his
vehicle. The King's expression was his usual poker face, but
he appeared alert and acknowledged the crowd as his vehicle
departed.


3. (C) The King's public appearance and departure from the
hospital will enable many Thais to put aside, for now, their
anxieties surrounding the King's eventual departure from the
scene. However, while some Thais appear psychologically
unable to cope with the idea of the eventual death of their
revered King, many in the political class recognize that this
is a looming prospect that will transform Thai politics.


4. (C) We are not experts on Thai constitutional law, and we
believe that it would be highly inappropriate at this time to
begin to ask our Thai legal contacts probing questions about
the succession. We hope to have the opportunity for some
discreet inquiries shortly. Based on our understanding of
the relevant laws, we give our current assessment of the
mechanics of transition.

SUCCESSION - WHO'S IN LINE?
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5. (C) The primary law governing the succession is the Palace
Law on Succession of 1924. This law specified that the
King's oldest son should be heir to the throne barring
certain extraordinary circumstances (such as marriage to a
foreigner, or mental illness),and then rank ordered other
male relatives in the line of succession. For several
decades, the various Thai constitutions either contained no
provision for amending this law, or required any changes to
follow the same procedures as a constitutional amendment. In
the constitution of 1991, according to an account by a
reputable academic, it was specified for the first time that
the amendment of the Palace Law shall be the perogative of
the King. This same provision has been carried over in the
2007 Constitution. The King can declare his wish to change
the law; the Privy Council will draft the amendment for his
signature. Once he has signed, the Privy Council shall
notify the President of the National Assembly to inform them
of the change, and the Assembly president will countersign
the Royal Command. In plain terms, this means that the King,
on relatively short notice, can make significant changes in
the Succession law. This has been interpreted to mean that
he could, if he liked, designate his popular daughter to
succeed him, rather than his reprobate and reviled only son.


6. (SBU) The 2007 Constitution has other provisions relating
to royal succession. Article 23 specifies that, when the
throne becomes vacant, the National Assembly (consisting of

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the House and Senate),upon receipt by its President of
notification from the cabinet, will convene to acknowledge
the King's designated heir (currently Crown Prince
Vajiralongkorn) and invite him to ascend to the throne,
proclaiming him as King. The Constitution does not delineate
any timeline for this process. There is an expectation that
the heir will be called very quickly, however. King Bhumibol
was proclaimed King the same day that this older brother died
of an unexplained gunshot wound in 1946 -- even under such
alarming circumstances, the machinery of succession worked
quickly.


7. (U) Addressing the contingency of a vacancy on the throne
when an heir has not been designated -- a scenario that does
not currently apply -- the Constitution stipulates that the
Privy Council is to submit a name of the King's successor to
the cabinet, for onward submission to the National Assembly,
and for the Assembly's approval. It is not clear whether the
Assembly's approval would simply be pro forma (see para 9).
Although the Palace Law on Succession currently states that
the monarch must be a male, the 2007 Constitution, like
several of its predecessors, states that the Privy Council
may submit the name of a princess as the King's successor.
As the constitution is the highest law of the land, we
believe that a princess could be named under these
conditions, even if the Palace Law were not amended.


8. (U) The Constitution further specifies that the King may
appoint a Regent in the event that he is unable to perform
his functions; if required by circumstances (i.e., in the
event of the King's incapacitation),the Privy Council may
select a suitable person as Regent. If the King appoints the
Regent himself, the President of the National Assembly simply
countersigns the command. If the Privy Council selects a
Regent, the person requires the approval of the National
Assembly. One can certainly imagine that, if the King were
incapacitated and a Regent had the authority to act on his
behalf, that the succession process could be manipulated. At
this point, however, this is mere speculation.

ARE THERE ANY LOOPHOLES?
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9. (C) The Crown Prince is the designated heir. None of
provisions above matter much if he is still the designated
heir when the Kings dies -- those provisions become relevant
only if the Crown Prince is removed from contention somehow.
The Palace Law on Succession does contain a loophole that
could, at least conceivably, be applied to this case.
Section 10 of the law states that: "The Heir who is to
succeed to the Throne should be fully respected by the people
and the people should be able to rely on him happily. If he
is considered by the majority of the people as objectionable,
he should be out of the line to the Throne."


10. (C) Ref B provides further detail on the political and
legal aspects of succession, as well as concerns about the
Crown Prince's character. We note that, since reftel's
transmission in 2004, the Crown Prince's reputation continues
to suffer and may have declined further, in part due to the
dissemination online and by DVD of material harmful to the
image of the Crown Prince and his Royal Consort. Ref A
detailed reports that some in palace circles are working
actively to undercut whatever support exists for the Royal
Consort, and we assume that this undercurrent also has
implications for the Crown Prince.

MOURNING PERIOD
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11. (C) We are not aware of any legal specifications for the
length of the mourning period for the King; a period of one
thousand days is often mentioned. The heir would still be
monarch during this period, but the coronation ceremony -- a
celebration -- would not be expected to happen during this
period. The cremation ceremony for the King would, we
believe, occur at the end of the mourning period. We do not
know what would be expected during a mourning period. Public
celebrations would certainly be canceled, and most Thais

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would find it inappropriate to attend concerts or other
entertainment events, at least during the early part of the
mourning period. Thailand's modern economy could not shut
down for 1000 days, however, and there would have to be
provisions made for life in the country to go on. That means
that schools, shops, and government offices would have to
reopen relatively quickly.

COMMENT
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12. (C) There is no precedent for a Thai King's death in the
modern era. Although the Constitution and the Palace Law on
Succession establish certain procedures, their pace and
susceptibility to manipulation remains unclear. What is
certain is that the King's death will prove heart-wrenching
for the millions of Thais who genuinely adore him, and normal
political life will come to an immediate halt for a period of
months and possibly longer.
BOYCE