PRO-THAKSIN PARTY CHAIRMAN CHARGES MILITARY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BANGKOK 005600 SIPDIS SIPDIS NSC FOR PHU E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/30/2017 TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM MOPS TH SUBJECT: PRO-THAKSIN PARTY CHAIRMAN CHARGES MILITARY INTERFERENCE IN ELECTION Classified By: Ambassador Ralph L. Boyce, reason: 1.4 (b) and (d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) The leader of the pro-Thaksin People's Power Party (PPP) has alleged a military plot to diminish voter support for the PPP. The PPP leader substantiated his claim by releasing purported internal documents from the Council for National Security (CNS). A pro-Thaksin contact also provided copies of the documents and English translations to us directly. Most RTG officials have not denied the documents' authenticity, although a military officer claimed at least one had been partially altered. Three of the documents relate to the CNS News and Information Department's workplan from mid-September to mid-November, including media outreach to discredit the PPP. One document appears to relate to biased voter education directed at military communities. Most of the plans described in these documents are consistent with known efforts by the authorities to follow up on their 2006 coup d'etat by undermining public support for Thaksin and his allies. The documents' public release may increase sympathy for PPP in pro-Thaksin areas. In upcoming travel, embassy officers will examine what actual impact efforts to diminish support for Thaksin and his associates are having in the countryside. The Ambassador will have the opportunity in early November meetings with military officials to underscore concerns about military interference in the election process. End Summary. SAMAK PUBLICIZES DOCUMENTS -------------- ¶2. (C) On October 23, PPP Party Leader Samak Sundaravej held a press conference to denounce what he presented as a plot by the Council for National Security (CNS) to impede his party's prospects in the December 23 national election. He cited and presented what he claimed were leaked internal RTG documents. Subsequently, a member of deposed PM Thaksin Shinawatra's legal team provided us with scanned copies of the Thai documents and English translations. (Two of the three English translations are also available on the website truethaksin.com, which Thaksin's legal team suggested we monitor to understand their perspective.) DOCUMENT ONE: SHAPE THE POLITICAL ENVIRONMENT -------------- ¶3. (U) The most specifically identifiable document is a serial-numbered memorandum dated September 14, 2007, from Army Colonel Chatchalerm Chalermsuk in the CNS News and Information Management Section to then-CNS Chairman Sonthi Boonyaratglin. (When subsequently contacted by local journalists, Chatchalerm declined to comment, saying, "I hope the truth will come out following the completion of a probe.") This memorandum requests approval for a work plan from mid-September through the final date for MP candidate registration (November 16). The workplan details activities consistent with the perception that the CNS should, among other efforts: - Publicly link the PPP and the dissolved Thai Rak Thai (TRT) party. (Note: This is also the strategy of PPP officials, who believe TRT remains popular. End Note.) - Persuade the public that TRT's policies were bad, and that PPP would bring corruption and abuses of power back to Thailand; and - Shape the political environment to prevent an "undesirable group" (read: PPP) from gaining power. DOCUMENT TWO: MANIPULATE MEDIA EXPOSURE, USE RUMORS -------------- -------------- ¶4. (U) A separate matrix, bearing the signature of a Colonel named Theerawat Bunyawat, Director of the Army's Information Technology Division, further spells out specific tactics BANGKOK 00005600 002 OF 003 linked to the points in the aforementioned memorandum, including: - Arranging media exposure for academics and social leaders who will criticize TRT, which will be linked to PPP; - Encouraging people to protest against "the return to power of Thai Rak Thai members through (the) People's Power Party..." - Publicizing the investigations of the Asset Examination Committee, which targets Thaksin and his associates; - Showing the public that PPP Party Leader Samak "is not honest, is subject to corruption investigation, (and) that he cannot be Prime Minister even if his party wins (the) majority (of the) votes..." - Arranging media appearances by third parties who would argue that a PPP victory in the election would generate turmoil, preclude domestic peace, and "could lead to another coup." - Using rumors to discredit the Thaksin government and allege that Thaksin sought to defame the royal family and create a presidential system of government in Thailand (thereby reducing the role of the monarchy). ¶5. (SBU) The matrix lists a number of ambitious activities to promote national unity. For example, TV stations should produce programs showing the consequences of disunity, "using examples like the loss of Ayuthaya to Myanmar" or making special short films about the causes of the coup or about the "progress of neighboring countries" and the benefits of political stability. Although the period of the workplan is almost completed, we are not aware of any such films being produced or used. The matrix also calls for allowing "other political parties to publicize their news/information, but for the PPP, limit the news only to negatives." However, the Election Commission of Thailand (ECT) regulations seem to limit all parties strictly, and PPP seems to be getting a reasonable amount of media coverage. For example, the media covered the story of these leaked documents. Many of the "activities" listed in the matrix are occurring naturally -- academics criticising Thaksin, rumors circulating about his disrespect for the King, and worries about possible political turmoil if PPP wins the election. It is difficult to trace any of this to the CNS News Department's activities. DOCUMENT THREE: TELL US WHO TO VOTE FOR -------------- ¶6. (U) The third document apparently takes the form of minutes from a meeting. According to the scanned version, it is typed on plain paper and bears no signature; it does not specify who participated in this meeting. The first part of the memo discusses organizing military trainers to combat vote buying and election fraud, targeting officers' families and communities near military camps. The notes then go on, however, to state "The objective of the campaign is to bring good people to the parliament. But from the practical standpoint, presently the lower units have no information on preferred candidates or preferred political party. The implementation may not be effective. How can our officers have information about who is our preferred candidate, who is our friend?" The notes say that the unspecified group of officials would need to, among other efforts, "be clear on our list of preferred candidates and who shall be appointed to the Election Committee of each election zone." The CNS, according to the minutes, should analyze political sentiment in various regions and then "set up our troops of trainers (in each) enemy zone..." It would also be important to specify "which political party the Commander (NFI) wants our officers to vote for." The notes point out, "We need clear direction of our operation and what the expected outcome is so that our operation teams know what needs to be done." DOCUMENT FOUR: APPROVAL BY TOP OFFICERS BANGKOK 00005600 003 OF 003 -------------- ¶7. (U) A fourth document, released online after a delay of a few days, purports to show the signatures of top military officers -- Sonthi Boonyaratglin, Anupong Paojinda, Saprang Kalayanamitra, and Montri Sangkhasap -- under a brief statement noting that an attached media plan of action for the period from September 14 until the close of candidate registration (by implication, that in the documents released earlier) was approved. GOVERNMENT RESPONSE -------------- ¶8. (U) Government officials have not explicitly confirmed the documents' authenticity, but most also have not denied that they are genuine. An October 25 media report quoted Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont saying in response to Samak's charges that he had seen copies of the documents in question, and they did not describe plans for "violence or suspicious activities." Surayud said the authorities would "ensure a fair and transparent election." October 26 press articles cited Defense Minister Boonrawd Somtas as claiming that the programs outlined in the documents would help to restore democratic rule. The media reported that a high-ranking officer heading the CNS Secretariat claimed that the documents were partially authentic, but that parts had been altered. On October 29, current Army Commander Anupong Paojinda seemed to confirm the documents were at least partially authentic when he said publicly that the Army had found the source of the leak. The Election Commission announced it would investigate the reports and would call the Army officer identified as the drafter of the first memorandum to testify. COMMENT -------------- ¶9. (C) The CNS has made no secret of its desire to "educate" the public about Thaksin's misdeeds, and the media has repeatedly reported that the authorities have dispatched soldiers to the countryside to promote certain political views, i.e. the need to vote for "good people." The documents regarding the media campaign, we think, are probably genuine. The alleged meeting notes are harder to assess, as they lack any identifying date, signature, or other information. If the notes are genuine, they seem to reflect the desire of more junior officers to get more direction from their superiors -- apparently, they do not know yet for whom the boss wants them to vote. 10 (C) Despite the disclaimers by government officials defending the programs, the dissemination of these documents casts the military in a poor light and may increase the "sympathy vote" that some PPP officials told us they expect to receive. Embassy officers will travel in the rural TRT strongholds in coming weeks, and will see what effect the military's efforts to "educate" the rural voters have had so far. The Ambassador will have several calls in early November with senior military officials, and will underscore that military interference in the political process would damage the legitimacy of the elections. BOYCE