THAI CABINET BLOCKS MARTIAL LAW PROPOSAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L BANGKOK 005567

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EAP/MLS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/26/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM PHUM ASEC TH
SUBJECT: THAI CABINET BLOCKS MARTIAL LAW PROPOSAL

REF: A) BANGKOK 05407 B) BANGKOK 05036

Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission James F. Entwistle, reasons 1.4
(b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary. The Thai Cabinet October 22 rejected a
recommendation by the Thai National Security Council (NSC)
that would have left martial law in place in many areas of
the country. In response, the NSC is reportedly preparing a
revised proposal that is expected to lift martial law in many
areas while maintaining it in key border districts. We will
continue to press the RTG to lift martial law as widely as
possible. End Summary.

THAI NSC REVISING MARTIAL LAW PROPOSAL
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2. (C) The Thai Cabinet October 22 declined to approve the
Thai National Security Council's (NSC) recommendation to lift
martial law in eleven provinces and impose it anew in three
provinces. We understand the Cabinet and Prime Minister
Surayud Chulanont thought the proposal would have left
martial law in effect too broadly. Under the NSC's October
12 proposal, martial law would remain in all or part of
twenty-seven of Thailand's seventy-six provinces. The
Cabinet's decision is surprising, as Ministry of Foreign
Affairs Permanent Secretary Virasakdi Futrakul had previously
indicated that the Thai cabinet would approve the proposal
for martial law (Ref A.)


3. (C) An official at the NSC told us that PM Surayud had
this week ordered the NSC to analyze the national security
need for martial law on a district (amphoe) by district
basis. Surayud had instructed a careful study by the NSC
because, as martial law requires the King's endorsement as a
royal decree, Surayud wants this to be the last such decree
before the election.


4. (C) According to a NSC document, the October 12 proposal
would have imposed martial law in twenty-seven provinces. In
fourteen provinces, primarily in the northeast, martial law
would have been in effect over the entire province. The
proposal would have imposed martial law on various districts
in the remaining thirteen provinces.

POSSIBLY ONLY BORDER DISTRICTS IN THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST
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5. (C) We learned from the NSC that the present review will
likely produce a proposal to limit martial law to border
districts in the north and northeast rather than on entire
provinces as proposed October 12. Southern provinces
affected by insurgency would remain under martial law. While
the number of provinces proposed for martial law would likely
remain relatively unchanged, the new proposal could result in
a significant reduction in the number of districts under
martial law when compared with the NSC's previous proposal.
The NSC told us that PM Surayud instructed the NSC to prepare
a revised proposal for consideration at the next Cabinet
meeting on October 30.


6. (U) The Cabinet decision comes as the October 12 martial
law proposal has come under attack in the press and by
politicians. Even Democrat Party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva,
who initially said martial law would not negatively influence
elections, now is calling for martial law to be lifted as
widely as possible.

COMMENT
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7. (C) In an apparent recognition of the criticism that arose
after the October 12 proposal, the NSC appears to be holding
information regarding the next martial law proposal much more
closely this time around. As the next decree on martial law
will likely remain in effect through the election campaign,
we will follow this process closely and will continue to
press the Thai government to lift martial law as widely as
possible.
BOYCE