BURMESE DISSIDENTS EXPRESS INCREASED FEAR OF ARREST

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NSC FOR PHU

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/25/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV PREF PHUM KDEM KPAO TH BM
SUBJECT: BURMESE DISSIDENTS EXPRESS INCREASED FEAR OF ARREST

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Classified By: Political Counselor Susan M. Sutton, reason 1.4 (b) and
(d).

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) Burmese dissidents, including media organizations,
reported to us that they received information Thai police and
military escalated scrutiny of the activists' operations in
Thailand. One prominent activist warned of impending arrests
by the Thai authorities. Embassy RTG contacts told us they
were unaware of any specific plan to crack down on Burmese
activists in Thailand, but some indicated the RTG is
concerned about the activities of Burmese dissidents, and RTG
officials are gathering intelligence on their activities.
Post has contacted a range of RTG officials to express
concern. As of the early evening of October 25, neither the
police nor the military had arrested any Burmese activists,
as far as we could determine. End Summary.

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THREAT OF ARRESTS ESCALATES
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2. (C) Late on October 25 Embassy contacts in the Burmese
exile community told us that the Chief of the Thai Police,
General Seripisut, issued arrest warrants for Burmese
dissidents in 72 locations throughout Thailand. (More
background in para nine.) We immediately called officials in
the MFA, NSC, Royal Thai Police (RTP),and the Thai military
to ascertain the validity of the report. Some of our
contacts indicated the RTG was responding to derogatory
information it received about Burmese activists in Thailand.
However, their descriptions did not point to a wide scale
roll-up of Burmese dissidents living in Thailand.


3. (C) In a follow-up to a previous conversation about this
matter, the Ambassador spoke with Thai MFA Permanent
Secretary Virasakdi Futrakul on October 25 to inquire about

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the reported arrest warrants. Virasakdi, who is currently
traveling in Singapore, replied that he passed the
Ambassador's message to his deputy as a matter to be raised
with the Foreign Minister. Speaking personally, he
continued, it has been Thai policy for decades not to permit
anyone to attack neighbors from Thai soil. If the Thai
police or military received information that any organization
planned such attacks, he emphasized that the RTG would have
to take action to prevent them. Virasakdi explained that
under normal circumstances, any action would have to be
coordinated with the NSC, but he could imagine that if the
Thai military or police felt there was a serious threat, they
might bypass interagency procedures. He said that he would
return to Thailand late on October 25 and would follow up on
this matter first thing on October 26. The Ambassador
pointed out to Virasakdi that it would be extremely unwise at
this juncture for the RTG to be seen as colluding with the
Burmese junta. Virasakdi replied that he whole-heartedly
agreed.


4. (C) Our working level contact, Director of the MFA
Department of East Asian Affairs Kallayana Vipattipumiprates,
told us that he was in close touch with the Thai Police
Special Branch and had not heard anything specific about
plans to arrest Burmese exiles, but that he would look into
the matter and report back to us. Kallayana agreed with us
that this was not the time for the Thais to begin turning
over democracy activists to the Burmese and assured us that
this was not the intention of the RTG. Kallayana mentioned
that he received inquiries from Burmese security agencies
concerned about protests in front of Burma's Embassy in

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Bangkok. He told us that his response to the Burmese was
that as long as the protest remained peaceful, the RTG would
not intervene.


5. (C) The RSO contacted the Royal Thai Police (RTP) late in
the afternoon on October 25 to ask about the rumored arrest
warrants. An RSO contact in the RTP acknowledged that the
Special Branch and Metropolitan Police had been ordered to
watch certain Burmese activists. The RSO contact stated that
the RTP officials were not ordered to arrest the activists,
only to gather intelligence, particularly relating to the
possible planning of subversive acts against the Burmese
Embassy in Bangkok.


6. (C) We were unable to reach any of our contacts at the NSC
but will follow up on October 26.


7. (C) Consulate General Chiang Mai contacted Royal Thai Army
officers responsible for northern border security and
interaction with the RTP in northern Thailand. Both officers
stated they received no instructions from their commanding
officers regarding Burmese activists and claimed that they
were not aware of any such instructions to the RTP or others.


8. (C) We also reached out to many Burmese activists in
Bangkok and Chiang Mai and learned that the police made no
arrests thus far. However, Burmese exiles told us they
activated their network to inform their colleagues of the
increased threat of arrests, and some dissidents decided to
avoid their own offices and to contact us using third parties
as a result. Irrawaddy editor Aung Zaw told us he was aware
of the rumors but could point to no subsequent actions. He
said that his staff had checked the story with their senior
military contacts in northern Thailand, who reported no
information of arrests or other action against Burmese
dissidents in their districts.

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BACKGROUND
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9. (C) Embassy has been in touch with Burmese activists
since October 19 when we received the first reports of
possible arrest warrants. Exile activist Maung Maung said
that a contact of his at the National Security Council made
an urgent call to warn him that the police chief had passed
to all of his commanders a list with the names and the
current locations in Thailand of 72 Burmese exiles. This NSC
contact indicated to Maung Maung that the list originated
from the Burmese MFA in Naypyidaw. Maung Maung received no
specifics as to who was on this list or any indication
whether or when those named would be arrested. He did learn
that the majority of people were located in Mae Sot, with
several others in Chiang Mai and Bangkok. As recently as the
morning of October 25, Maung Maung indicated that he was not
excessively concerned about these reports, although he
appreciated the efforts by foreign embassies to raise
concerns with the RTG, as we have. Late in the day on October
25, however, Maung Maung called to report he had heard arrest
warrants had been issued, and that he feared arrests could be
imminent.

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COMMENT
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10. (C) If the exiles' claims are correct, this is not the
first time that the Burmese requested that the RTG rein in
exiles based in Thailand who continue to irritate the Burmese
regime. However, we have yet to confirm these reports,
despite numerous inquiries with Thai officials late in the

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day. We will continue to monitor the situation closely with
both Burmese exiles and Thai official sources, and we will
intercede with the RTG on behalf of pro-democracy activists
if it appears the Thais are poised to crack down on them. It
may be useful to call in the Thai Ambassador in Washington to
underscore the Department's concerns on this issue.
BOYCE