AMBASSADOR PRESSES MFA PERMSEC ON MARTIAL LAW

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 005407

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EAP/MLS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/15/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM PHUM ASEC TH
SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR PRESSES MFA PERMSEC ON MARTIAL LAW

REF: BANGKOK 05036

Classified By: Ambassador Ralph L. Boyce, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary. The National Security Council October 12
proposed to lift martial law in eleven provinces and to
impose martial law in three provinces. The Thai cabinet is
expected to approve proposal October 16. The Ambassador
called Ministry of Foreign Affairs Permanent Secretary
Virasakdi Futrakul October 12 and 15 to press for the return
to pre-coup state of martial law. Reaction from political
parties is mixed with some saying that the law would not
affect political campaigns. End Summary.

NSC TAKES TWO STEPS FORWARD AND ONE STEP BACK ON MARTIAL LAW
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2. (U) Thai media reported that in a meeting chaired by
Deputy Prime Minister Sonthi Boonyaratkalin, the Thai
National Security Council (NSC) proposed October 12 to lift
martial law in eleven provinces. The provinces where martial
law would be lifted are Prachuap Khiri Khan, Phetchaburi,
Ratchaburi, Khon Kaen, Chaiyaphum, Nakhon Ratchasima, Maha
Sarakham, Roi Et, Kamphaeng Phet, Nong Bua Lamphu and Udon
Thani. However, the NSC proposes to impose martial law in
Nong Khai, Nakhon Phanom and Mukdahan provinces. (Note.
These three Northeastern provinces rejected the 2007
constitution by ratios of over three to one in the Aug 19
referendum. End Note.) Martial law would remain in
twenty-seven of Thailand's seventy-six provinces. General
Sonthi explained that martial law is needed in these
provinces because they are border provinces with criminal
activities that pose threats to national security. The Thai
cabinet will consider this proposal October 16.


3. (C) The Ambassador called Ministry of Foreign Affairs
(MFA) Permanent Secretary Virasakdi October 12 before the NSC
meeting and reiterated U.S. concerns over martial law in
Thailand. The Ambassador noted that lifting martial law
would be critical as Thailand prepares for general elections
December 23. Virasakdi explained that the MFA would push
within the RTG for the removal of martial law in all but the
border provinces. The Ambassador urged the RTG to return to
the pre-coup situation when martial law was in effect in only
limited areas of border provinces.


4. (C) The Ambassador spoke with Virasakdi again October 15
to express disappointment with the decision by NSC.
Virasakdi explained that several agencies had argued during
the October 12 NSC meeting that the proposal that would allow
martial law to remain in effect in twenty-seven provinces was
unsound as it would raise doubts over political campaigning
as Thailand approaches general elections. The Royal Thai
Army (RTA),however, argued that the problems of cross-border
narcotics trafficking and illegal immigration were
sufficiently critical to substantiate martial law remaining
in effect. The RTA also posited in the meeting that
trafficking of narcotics is a source of funds for politicians
who did not have the Thailand's best interest in mind. Based
on Virasakdi's readout we expect the Thai cabinet to approve
the proposal for martial law. If the cabinet approves, the
decree would go to the King for endorsement as a royal
decree.

POLITICAL PARTIES REACT
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6. (U) Reaction in the press from political parties to the
NSC's proposal varied but was much as could be expected.
Samak Sundaravej, leader of the People's Power Party that
consists of many hard-line former Thai Rak Thai politicians,
severely criticized the proposal saying that it would be
shameful when the election date comes and those responsible
for security had not lifted martial law. Democrat Party
leader Abhisit Vejjajiva said martial law remains essential
in areas considered unstable and the law would probably not
affect free and fair elections as laws with stringent
provisions are already in place. Similarly, Suwit Khunkitti,
former Deputy Prime Minister under Thaksin Shinawatra and
leader of the Motherland Party, said martial law would not

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cause problems with political campaigns because politicians
had not encountered problems campaigning in areas under
martial law in past elections.

COMMENT
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7. (C) Martial law is likely to remain in effect in these 27
provinces through most, if not all, of the election campaign.
The armed forces have so far made very limited use of
martial law provisions, but this decision may still have a
dampening effect on political activity in these areas. The
government's arguments for imposing martial law on the three
new provinces are simply not convincing -- the three have not
been under martial law for years, and there is no evidence of
a serious deterioration of the security situation along the
Lao border. We will continue to press the government to lift
martial law in the remaining provinces.
BOYCE