THAI POLITICAL UPDATE: ELECTION CLOCK TICKING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 005332

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/10/2017
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM TH BM
SUBJECT: THAI POLITICAL UPDATE: ELECTION CLOCK TICKING


Classified By: Political Counselor Susan M. Sutton, reason: 1.4 (b) and
(d).

SUMMARY
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1. (C) Publication of key laws sets a January 2008 drop-dead
date for the House elections, while Election Commission
officials maintain the election will be on December 23.... A
debate on ethics in the legislature focuses on alleged
improprieties by Prime Minister Surayud.... Most new
political parties appear in a state of disorder, and
politicians do not need to commit to a particular party until
30 days before the House election.... Legislators dropped
efforts to strengthen lese majeste provisions after a signal
of disapproval from the Palace. End Summary.

ELECTION CLOCK TICKING
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2. (C) The Election Law, Political Party Law, and Election
Commission (EC) Law were published in the Royal Gazette on
October 8 and thereby took effect the following day.
According to the 2007 Constitution, the House of
Representatives election must be held within 90 days of the
laws coming into force, meaning that the second week in
January 2008 marks the drop-dead date. An Election
Commissioner confirmed to us on October 10 that the EC had
already forwarded to the cabinet a draft Royal Decree that
would establish December 23 as the election date; he expected
the cabinet to approve the decree at its October 16 meeting.
The next step would be for the Council of State to screen the
draft before forwarding it to the Cabinet Secretariat for
submission to the King. Our EC contact expected the final
step -- publication in the Royal Gazette -- no later than the
end of October, locking in the December 23 date.

LEGISLATURE SCRUTINIZING PRIME MINISTER
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3. (C) Critics of Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont scheduled
a debate in the National Legislative Assembly (NLA) on
October 10 to examine possible ethics violations by the
cabinet. Most media attention has focused on Surayud's
ownership of national forest land. A member of the NLA
recently downplayed to us the significance of the debate,
which will not culminate in a no-confidence vote. Surayud
appears under political attack by leading legislator Prasong
Soonsiri, one of the strategists involved in the 2006 coup.
Prasong is also a public advocate for delaying the House
election. One of our contacts speculated that if evidence of
ethical lapses on Surayud's part were to surface during the
NLA debate, this might make it more difficult for Surayud to
be reappointed to the Privy Council after concluding his term
as Prime Minister.

NEW POLITICAL PARTIES REMAIN DISORGANIZED
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4. (C) The People's Power Party (PPP),whose leader, Samak
Sundaravej, has publicly described himself as the "nominee"
of deposed Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, remains the
only newly-prominent political party to present a cohesive
public image. Other political parties that disaffected Thai
Rak Thai figures and others have tried to form have suffered
from severe factionalism and defections. Despite the
likelihood of the House election taking place on December 23,
it currently is virtually impossible to assess which parties,
aside from PPP and the Democrats, might turn in a respectable
performance, and which will flop. According to transitional
provisions of the 2007 Constitution, politicians do not need
to commit to a political party until 30 days before election
day.

REVERSAL ON LESE MAJESTE
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5. (C) Legislators recently introduced draft legislation to
strengthen lese majeste provisions, so as to criminalize

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criticism of a wider range of members of the royal family,
Privy Councilors, and other specially-appointed
representatives of the monarchy. On October 9, one of the
leading proponents of the bill withdrew it, citing opposition
expressed privately to him by a member of the Privy Council.
The bill was widely seen as an attempt to quash criticism of
Privy Council President Prem Tinsulanonda, who has been
publicly vilified by allies of deposed PM Thaksin. Privy
Council opposition to strengthening lese majeste provisions
would be consistent with claims months ago that Police
officials dropped their investigation of Thaksin for lese
majeste charges after unnamed Palace officials allegedly
signaled disapproval.
BOYCE