BURMESE EXILES IN THAILAND CONFIDENT THAT PROTESTS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BANGKOK 005314 SIPDIS SIPDIS NSC FOR PHU E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/09/2017 TAGS: PREL PGOV PREF PHUM KDEM KPAO TH BM SUBJECT: BURMESE EXILES IN THAILAND CONFIDENT THAT PROTESTS ARE NOT OVER REF: BANGKOK 5224 BANGKOK 00005314 001.2 OF 003 Classified By: DCM James F. Entwistle, reason 1.4 (b) and (d). -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) Despite international press headlines declaring that a sense of normalcy has returned to Rangoon, Burmese exiles based in Thailand claim that the uprising is just beginning. In meetings and communications with us, prominent activists were quick to insist that the Burmese are united in their anger with the regime's recent crackdown and that they continue to plan forms of protest from hiding and within the monasteries. They described current events as being organized primarily from within Burma, with material, financial, and moral support from the organizers' counterparts in Thailand. Various groups in Thailand are requesting emergency funding to address the pressing need of supporting groups inside Burma. Based on conversations with their own contacts, Embassy Rangoon remains skeptical as to the degree of organization among activists inside Burma and of the amount of support they receive from their colleagues in Thailand. End Summary. -------------- WE'VE ONLY JUST BEGUN -------------- ¶2. (C) We met October 3-5 with a range of Burmese activists based in Thailand to get their readout of what would happen next in Burma. Recognizing that no new large scale protests materialized in recent days, they were quick to claim that the uprising was not over yet. Despite the ongoing arrest and detention of activists, monks, and others, plans were still being made by those in hiding and within the monasteries in Burma to organize new forms of non confrontational protests and to pass information. The networks created in the past several years were extensive and would not disappear overnight, but were in the process of reorganizing before returning to the streets. Forum for Democracy Secretary General Naing Aung cited one of these networks as the Supervising Committee for People Movement, and also referenced the previously known Monk's Alliance. He described some of the proposed forms of non-confrontational protests included candlelight vigils being organized in various parts of the country to coincide with those to take place internationally. ; ¶3. (C) "This is just the beginning," stated member of the National Coalition Government of the Union of Burma Sann Aung, "and people recognize they have a real opportunity to maintain the momentum created by recent events, they are not willing to back down." The planning for protests began more than a year ago, he claimed, with the formation of various committees in townships throughout the country. These included student committees, monk committees, and other types of local social committees. This decentralized structure would enable them to continue their efforts as part of a long term strategy, he stated, even as people continued to be rounded up by the military. At the same time, he expressed his concern that the military was also not willing to back down, which could lead to further bloodshed. ¶4. (C) National Coalition of the Union of Burma General Secretary Maung Maung told us that people were physically SIPDIS tired after two weeks of protesting, but "their will to press on is strong." He went on to state that the regime did take note of the response by the international community, as BANGKOK 00005314 002.2 OF 003 evidenced by the Burmese government's addressing comments from the U.S. and other countries in their daily local language news reports. Naing Aung believed recent examples of "citizen journalism" and the use of the internet to broadcast to the world what was happening inside Burma would be the basis for future such efforts. -------------- EXILES PLAY SUPPORTING ROLE TO PROTESTS -------------- ¶5. (C) The exiles who spoke to us were quick to confirm VAHU Development Institute Director Zaw Oo's description (reftel) of the organization of the recent protests as being led by activists inside Burma with support from the exile community. In addition to the '88 Generation, a new generation of leaders was emerging from the current crisis, our contacts assessed, and it was these leaders who were forming the backbone of this latest movement. But the exile community provided the leaders inside Burma with an important link to the outside world, as well as financial and technical assistance, moral support, and the exchange of information. ¶6. (C) Maung Maung informed us that his organization in particular was providing ongoing support to numerous figures and groups in the country, but that his organization was running dangerously low on funds. In the past few weeks they had seven satellite phones and numerous cameras confiscated by the government, all of which needed to be replaced. In addition, activists used their own funds to purchase supplies for the protesting monks, including tens of kilos of beetlenut (to provide a form of sustenance during the long marches when monks were unable to eat),bandages and other first aid supplies. He stated that their colleagues in Burma needed everything from bicycles to typewriters. ¶7. (C) Every group that spoke with us pressed for additional funding at this crucial point in Burma's democracy movement. We requested that they submit their funding proposals in writing for USG consideration. -------------- REGIONAL SUPPORT SORELY NEEDED, AND LACKING -------------- ¶8. (C) Burmese activists based in Thailand believe in the need for continued international pressure on Burma, identifying the UN, China and ASEAN as the key players. While many see the importance of the role of the UN, they did not put much credence in the ability of UN Special Advisor Gambari to accomplish anything meaningful following his recent visit. Maung Maung proposed that the UN open a full office in Rangoon (as opposed to just the current UNDP office),which could be "a place where politics can be openly discussed by NLD and other opposition leaders" along the lines of what the ILO has been able to accomplish for the issue of forced labor. ¶9. (C) While many of our contacts in the exile community lauded the statement released by ASEAN during the UN General Assembly, they felt that on the whole ASEAN as an institution was not doing enough. Rather, they saw individual countries within ASEAN as being in a better position to influence the Burmese government, with many people referring to Indonesia as the most credible due to its recent experience with democratization. Former Thai Ambassador to the UN Asda Jayanama described Thailand's response as a disappointment, chiding that "even China has done more work behind the scenes." BANGKOK 00005314 003.2 OF 003 ¶10. (C) At a press conference sponsored by the Foreign Correspondent's Club of Thailand, a journalist asked if there was any value to General Than Shwe's public offer to meet with NLD leader Aung Sang Suu Kyi. Maung Maung decried the notion as nothing but a public relations gesture on the eve of Gambari's presentation to the UNSC. He stated that if the regime really wanted to talk to her they should do so immediately without conditions. Other panelists did not share this view, and saw Than Shwe's offer as an opportunity to begin dialogue between the opposition and the Burmese government. Ambassador Asda and Naing Aung believed that the General's remarks were the direct result of international pressure and that the opposition should seize the opportunity to begin to negotiate, as long as such negotiations included clear objectives and a specific timeline. -------------- THE VIEW FROM RANGOON -------------- ¶11. (C) After reviewing the statements of Thai-based Burmese activists, Embassy Rangoon disagrees with the size and capacity of the underground organizations they describe and believes the exiles played a much less substantial role in establishing what networks do exist. Many of the activists inside Burma that they speak with are distrustful of leaders in Thailand such as Maung Maung and chose not to work with the few activists they know he provides with financial assistance. According to their contacts, it was the 88 Generation Students and the Human Rights Defenders and Promoters (HRDP) who, working with young monks throughout the country to encourage their entrance onto the political scene, began developing the network cited by Thai exiles, but only in 2006. They point out that the specific demonstrations held the past few weeks were not planned far in advance as insinuated by the Thai activists, but that leaders such as Min Ko Naing organized the late August protest to take advantage of the fuel price hike. Embassy Rangoon also notes that the "candlelight vigils" predicted by Naing Aung had not materialized as of October 8, (though Embassy Bangkok has since received reports that indicate other forms of non-confrontational protests and labor strikes are beginning to appear throughout the country). -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶11. (C) While we defer to Embassy Rangoon's analysis of the situation in Burma, we believe the views expressed in this cable offer insight into the thinking of the exile community, which plays an important role in sustaining Burma's democracy movement. There seems to be genuine belief that last month's protests are the beginning of something much bigger yet to come, though the exile community's description of the extent of organization of these protests remains unsubstantiated. We will continue to engage with exiles in Thailand to determine their perspective on events in Burma and what they hope to achieve. ¶12. (C) This cable was coordinated with Embassy Rangoon. BOYCE