BURMESE EXILES IN THAILAND CONFIDENT THAT PROTESTS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BANGKOK 005314

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NSC FOR PHU

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/09/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV PREF PHUM KDEM KPAO TH BM
SUBJECT: BURMESE EXILES IN THAILAND CONFIDENT THAT PROTESTS
ARE NOT OVER

REF: BANGKOK 5224

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Classified By: DCM James F. Entwistle, reason 1.4 (b) and (d).

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) Despite international press headlines declaring that a
sense of normalcy has returned to Rangoon, Burmese exiles
based in Thailand claim that the uprising is just beginning.
In meetings and communications with us, prominent activists
were quick to insist that the Burmese are united in their
anger with the regime's recent crackdown and that they
continue to plan forms of protest from hiding and within the
monasteries. They described current events as being
organized primarily from within Burma, with material,
financial, and moral support from the organizers'
counterparts in Thailand. Various groups in Thailand are
requesting emergency funding to address the pressing need of
supporting groups inside Burma. Based on conversations with
their own contacts, Embassy Rangoon remains skeptical as to
the degree of organization among activists inside Burma and
of the amount of support they receive from their colleagues
in Thailand. End Summary.

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WE'VE ONLY JUST BEGUN
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2. (C) We met October 3-5 with a range of Burmese activists
based in Thailand to get their readout of what would happen
next in Burma. Recognizing that no new large scale protests
materialized in recent days, they were quick to claim that
the uprising was not over yet. Despite the ongoing arrest
and detention of activists, monks, and others, plans were
still being made by those in hiding and within the
monasteries in Burma to organize new forms of non
confrontational protests and to pass information. The
networks created in the past several years were extensive and
would not disappear overnight, but were in the process of
reorganizing before returning to the streets. Forum for
Democracy Secretary General Naing Aung cited one of these
networks as the Supervising Committee for People Movement,
and also referenced the previously known Monk's Alliance. He
described some of the proposed forms of non-confrontational
protests included candlelight vigils being organized in
various parts of the country to coincide with those to take
place internationally.


3. (C) "This is just the beginning," stated member of the
National Coalition Government of the Union of Burma Sann
Aung, "and people recognize they have a real opportunity to
maintain the momentum created by recent events, they are not
willing to back down." The planning for protests began more
than a year ago, he claimed, with the formation of various
committees in townships throughout the country. These
included student committees, monk committees, and other types
of local social committees. This decentralized structure
would enable them to continue their efforts as part of a long
term strategy, he stated, even as people continued to be
rounded up by the military. At the same time, he expressed
his concern that the military was also not willing to back
down, which could lead to further bloodshed.


4. (C) National Coalition of the Union of Burma General
Secretary Maung Maung told us that people were physically

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tired after two weeks of protesting, but "their will to press
on is strong." He went on to state that the regime did take
note of the response by the international community, as

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evidenced by the Burmese government's addressing comments
from the U.S. and other countries in their daily local
language news reports. Naing Aung believed recent examples
of "citizen journalism" and the use of the internet to
broadcast to the world what was happening inside Burma would
be the basis for future such efforts.

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EXILES PLAY SUPPORTING ROLE TO PROTESTS
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5. (C) The exiles who spoke to us were quick to confirm VAHU
Development Institute Director Zaw Oo's description (reftel)
of the organization of the recent protests as being led by
activists inside Burma with support from the exile community.
In addition to the '88 Generation, a new generation of
leaders was emerging from the current crisis, our contacts
assessed, and it was these leaders who were forming the
backbone of this latest movement. But the exile community
provided the leaders inside Burma with an important link to
the outside world, as well as financial and technical
assistance, moral support, and the exchange of information.


6. (C) Maung Maung informed us that his organization in
particular was providing ongoing support to numerous figures
and groups in the country, but that his organization was
running dangerously low on funds. In the past few weeks they
had seven satellite phones and numerous cameras confiscated
by the government, all of which needed to be replaced. In
addition, activists used their own funds to purchase supplies
for the protesting monks, including tens of kilos of
beetlenut (to provide a form of sustenance during the long
marches when monks were unable to eat),bandages and other
first aid supplies. He stated that their colleagues in Burma
needed everything from bicycles to typewriters.


7. (C) Every group that spoke with us pressed for additional
funding at this crucial point in Burma's democracy movement.
We requested that they submit their funding proposals in
writing for USG consideration.

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REGIONAL SUPPORT SORELY NEEDED, AND LACKING
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8. (C) Burmese activists based in Thailand believe in the
need for continued international pressure on Burma,
identifying the UN, China and ASEAN as the key players.
While many see the importance of the role of the UN, they did
not put much credence in the ability of UN Special Advisor
Gambari to accomplish anything meaningful following his
recent visit. Maung Maung proposed that the UN open a full
office in Rangoon (as opposed to just the current UNDP
office),which could be "a place where politics can be openly
discussed by NLD and other opposition leaders" along the
lines of what the ILO has been able to accomplish for the
issue of forced labor.


9. (C) While many of our contacts in the exile community
lauded the statement released by ASEAN during the UN General
Assembly, they felt that on the whole ASEAN as an institution
was not doing enough. Rather, they saw individual countries
within ASEAN as being in a better position to influence the
Burmese government, with many people referring to Indonesia
as the most credible due to its recent experience with
democratization. Former Thai Ambassador to the UN Asda
Jayanama described Thailand's response as a disappointment,
chiding that "even China has done more work behind the
scenes."


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10. (C) At a press conference sponsored by the Foreign
Correspondent's Club of Thailand, a journalist asked if there
was any value to General Than Shwe's public offer to meet
with NLD leader Aung Sang Suu Kyi. Maung Maung decried the
notion as nothing but a public relations gesture on the eve
of Gambari's presentation to the UNSC. He stated that if the
regime really wanted to talk to her they should do so
immediately without conditions. Other panelists did not
share this view, and saw Than Shwe's offer as an opportunity
to begin dialogue between the opposition and the Burmese
government. Ambassador Asda and Naing Aung believed that the
General's remarks were the direct result of international
pressure and that the opposition should seize the opportunity
to begin to negotiate, as long as such negotiations included
clear objectives and a specific timeline.

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THE VIEW FROM RANGOON
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11. (C) After reviewing the statements of Thai-based Burmese
activists, Embassy Rangoon disagrees with the size and
capacity of the underground organizations they describe and
believes the exiles played a much less substantial role in
establishing what networks do exist. Many of the activists
inside Burma that they speak with are distrustful of leaders
in Thailand such as Maung Maung and chose not to work with
the few activists they know he provides with financial
assistance. According to their contacts, it was the 88
Generation Students and the Human Rights Defenders and
Promoters (HRDP) who, working with young monks throughout the
country to encourage their entrance onto the political scene,
began developing the network cited by Thai exiles, but only
in 2006. They point out that the specific demonstrations
held the past few weeks were not planned far in advance as
insinuated by the Thai activists, but that leaders such as
Min Ko Naing organized the late August protest to take
advantage of the fuel price hike. Embassy Rangoon also notes
that the "candlelight vigils" predicted by Naing Aung had not
materialized as of October 8, (though Embassy Bangkok has
since received reports that indicate other forms of
non-confrontational protests and labor strikes are beginning
to appear throughout the country).

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COMMENT
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11. (C) While we defer to Embassy Rangoon's analysis of the
situation in Burma, we believe the views expressed in this
cable offer insight into the thinking of the exile community,
which plays an important role in sustaining Burma's democracy
movement. There seems to be genuine belief that last month's
protests are the beginning of something much bigger yet to
come, though the exile community's description of the extent
of organization of these protests remains unsubstantiated.
We will continue to engage with exiles in Thailand to
determine their perspective on events in Burma and what they
hope to achieve.


12. (C) This cable was coordinated with Embassy Rangoon.
BOYCE