PRE-ELECTION UPDATE: EX-TRT FIGURES FORM PARTY,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 004905

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR PHU

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/12/2017
TAGS: PGOV MARR PHUM TH
SUBJECT: PRE-ELECTION UPDATE: EX-TRT FIGURES FORM PARTY,
ARMY CHIEF TO BE NAMED SOON, ECT NIXES EU MOU

REF: BANGKOK 4793

Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission James F. Entwistle reason 1.4 (b
) and (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) Many top former Thai Rak Thai officials have agreed to
work together to form a new political party; this group
contains many important figures, but its strength in the
coming election is hard to assess because the most important
of these politicians are ineligible to run for office. The
group is not aligned with former PM Thaksin. Prime Minister
Surayud should soon seek the King's approval for a new Army
Commander; it appears that GEN Anupong Paojinda is now the
leading contender for the job. The Election Commission of
Thailand (ECT) Chairman has said the ECT will not sign an MOU
with the European Commission (EC) to formalize EC election
observation; this likely means the EC will not send a full
observer mission, but EC member states or the European
Parliament might. End Summary.

TRT OFFICIALS COALESCE TO FORM A NEW PARTY
--------------


2. (C) On September 11, a group of former top Thai Rak Thai
(TRT) officials announced their intention to form a new
political party. They have dubbed their party-to-be as the
"For the Motherland Party" (Pak Puea Pandin). (Note:
Present at the ceremony were Surakiart Sathirathai, Sanoh
Thienthong, Somsak Thepsuthin, Pinij Jarusombat, Suwit
Khunkitti, Suranand Vejjajiva, Vatana Asavahame, and others.
Most of them are ineligible to run for elected office or hold
political party positions, because they were members of the
TRT executive board when the party was dissolved. Vatana was
not affiliated with TRT, but his reputation was damaged by
public revelations in the early 1990's that he was ineligible
for a U.S. visa because he had profited from the drug trade.
End Note.) Suranand told us before the event that Surakiart,
a former Foreign Minister and Deputy Prime Minister, was the
key person pressing to pull these figures together. The
group did not announce a leader. It is widely reported that
they have asked UNCTAD Secretary-General Supachai
Panitchapakdi to leave his current job and head the party,
but Supachai so far has shown no interest.


3. (C) Comment: This group includes most of the prominent TRT
faction leaders who have not already joined the People's
Power Party. Conventional wisdom may hold that the
Motherland figures' networks include enough former
legislators that this group could rival the Democrat Party in
coming elections. However, the group currently lacks a
charismatic leader; a known major source of funding (most of
these figures, like Sanoh, are seen as brokers who channel
others' funds, rather than as financiers); and a compelling
political stance or ideology (the People's Power Party
clearly represents the Thaksin legacy and has the former PM's
endorsement; most of the Motherland figures who were in TRT
deserted the party soon after the coup). End Comment.

ARMY CHIEF TO BE NAMED SOON
--------------


4. (C) The announcement of the annual military reshuffle has
been delayed several times over the contentious issue of the
new Army commander-in-chief, according to a variety of
sources. Some of the delay was attributed to the need to
find an appropriate slot for GEN Saphrang Kalayanamitr, the
hot-headed and outspoken coup leader who lost his position as
front-runner (reftel). GEN Sonthi himself appeared to prefer
Army Chief of Staff Montri Sangkhasap, who was personally
close to Sonthi, and who is well-liked within the Army. It
now appears, however, that GEN Anupong Paojinda will get the
job. GEN Anupong, who played an important role in the coup,
has been extremely discreet, rarely speaks to the press, and
has ruffled no feathers. As a member of pre-cadet class 10
(Thaksin,s class) he would have three years to serve as Army
chief before his mandatory retirement.


5. (C) The reshuffle list goes from the Supreme Command to

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the Prime Minister, who is highly unlikely to make any
changes. He will forward it to the palace for the King,s
approval. The results should be known publicly very soon.

ECT CHAIRMAN WELCOMES OBSERVERS, REJECTS MOU
--------------


6. (SBU) Press reports quote Election Commission of Thailand
(ECT) Chairman Apichart Sukhagganond as rejecting the
European Commission's (EC) proposed MOU on election
observation. The ECT's leadership reportedly was unanimous
in adopting this policy. The ECT continues to publicly
welcome EU and other foreign observers, but the Thai side
interpreted some aspects of the EC's proposed MOU as less
than fully respectful of Thai sovereignty. (reftel)


7. (SBU) A diplomat from an EU member state told us on
September 12 that he was unaware of any correspondence from
the ECT formally conveying the ECT's rejection of the MOU.
Should the ECT provide such formal notification, this would
mark the end of EC efforts to send a full observer mission,
although EU member states would remain free to send observers
under their own national auspices. Our contact also noted
that at least one member of the European Parliament (EP)
recently expressed interest in arranging an EP observation
mission consisting of EU parliamentarians.


BOYCE