THAILAND CONSTITUTIONAL REFERENDUM UPDATE AND

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BANGKOK 004464

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/16/2017
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL KDEM TH
SUBJECT: THAILAND CONSTITUTIONAL REFERENDUM UPDATE AND
SUGGESTED RESPONSE

Classified By: Ambassador Ralph L. Boyce, reason 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Things appear on track for a reasonably
orderly referendum process on August 19, although
anti-charter protests could lead to isolated incidents at
polling stations. Allegations of vote-buying to secure a
"no' vote and government officials advocating for a "yes"
vote continue, but actual evidence of fraud is hard to come
by. The government continues to push for good turn-out, and
all media and contacts anticipate that the constitution will
pass, although there is very little hard data to support
projections one way or the other. We might know the results
by late on August 19 local time but are more likely to have
an announcement in the afternoon on Monday, August 20. If
voters vote "yes," it will be largely to promote a smoother
path to elections before the end of the year, not out of
intrinsic support for the new constitution. Even if the
voting goes smoothly on Sunday, we should not endorse or
embrace this process. We include suggested press guidance in
para 8. END SUMMARY.

WHAT SHOULD HAPPEN?
--------------


2. (C) Things appear on track for basically orderly
referendum process on Sunday August 19. Predictions of voter
turnout are creeping up as the government continues a very
vigorous get-out-the-vote campaign. The opposition is urging
citizens to be on guard against government manipulation of
the vote, and to vote no. This week, the Thai Rak Thai group
(politicians loyal to former PM Thaksin) launched 100 red
pickup trucks to circulate in and around Bangkok carrying
anit-charter campaigners and literature. The Prime Minister
held a rally in Chiang Mai, urging voters not to take any
money for their vote, and leading them in a pledge to "vote
their conscience." Anti-charter activity is reportedly
getting more creative. There are stories of "bogus postmen"
delivering anti-charter DVDs to households, and anonymous
letters sent to voters telling them that the new constitution
would cancel the universal health scheme, and legalize
wiretapping. On the other side, anti-charter activists
allege that villagers in one province were told the village
would lose development funds if it voted against the charter,
and accusations of pro-charter bias by officials are
widespread. Anti-charter activity could lead to incidents at
some polling stations, particularly if charter opponents
destroy their ballots (which is illegal) or organize
protests; on the whole, however, we are not expecting serious
problems of this kind on Sunday.


3. (SBU) Poloff currently traveling in the heart of Thaksin
country, Thailand's rural northeast, tried to track down
accounts of vote-buying by charter opponents; these
accusations have gotten a lot of attention in the Bangkok
press. Local election officials in Surin province said they
had no evidence of vote buying and expressed frustration that
the allegations continue to circulate. In neighboring
Buriram, however, the Vice Governor told poloff that the
government had two eyewitnesses to this activity, and would
press charges against a politician associated with local
strongman and Thaksin loyalist Newin Chidchob. The Buriram
VG said that local elections officials were not following up
on reports of anti-charter vote-buying because "they were
afraid Thaksin was coming back" and did not want to be on the
wrong side of the political conflict.


4. (C) One village chief told poloff that he had been asked
to send in a report on Saturday estimating the number of
villagers who would vote. He said he was encouraging people
to go and vote, but denied he'd received any orders to tell
people to support the constitution. (Comment: nonetheless,
everyone understands that a "yes" vote will please the
current government more than a "no" vote, and this cannot
help but influence the actions of local officials. End
comment.) The junta, to some extent, can't win for losing.
Earlier this year, it was widely believed that the referendum
idea was a stunt the CNS came up to ensure that the draft
charter would fail. It was rumored that the draft, which was
written by respected jurists and academics, was "too soft"
for the generals. According to this view, they hoped the
draft would fail the referendum, so they would have an excuse

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to draw up their own authoritarian charter. It is somewhat
ironic that the CNS/government is now being accused of going
overboard trying to get the charter approved in Sunday's
vote.


5. (SBU) Every commentator and official we've heard from
still maintains that the new constitution is most likely to
pass the referendum, although some contacts in the Northeast
believe it might fail in some provinces there. There is very
little hard data to support projections one way or the other.
Local officials in the Northeast province of Surin report
that the concern raised most often by villagers is the
absence of state religion status for Buddhism. This appears
to be a particular concern in Surin, home of several of the
monks who led the protests to give Buddhism official status.
(Note: In her birthday speech last week, the Queen argued
against including state religion status in the constitution,
which caused some of the remaining advocates of that idea to
announce they would no longer campaign for it. Those poloff
talked to in the Northeast, however, had not heard about the
speech. End note.)

WHEN WILL WE KNOW THE RESULT?
--------------


6. (SBU) The Election Commission has set up a media center
and will give press conferences every two hours on referendum
day until about 10:30 pm. It is possible that they might
announce preliminary results by then, but more likely that
they will announce the results on the afternoon of Monday,
August 20. According to the written procedures, every
polling station commission must physically bring the voting
materials, including their document recording the official
tally of the vote at their station, to the District Election
Commission. Once the District Commission has gotten in all
the results from its area, it will prepare a document
recording its tally, and physically take it to the Provincial
Election Commission. The head of the Provincial Commission
must tally up all the results from the province, and
physically bring the document showing the province totals to
Bangkok by noon on August 20. One local election commission
in the Northeast insisted to us that they would follow these
procedures to the letter; in another district, they said
they'd be faxing in their results. In any case, the need to
get all the results in for the district before reporting up
to the province and then to Bangkok means, at least in
theory, that a couple of tardy polling place commissions
could prevent a whole province from reporting its results.
That was one problem encountered in the 2006 annulled
election, when the difficulty of getting ballot boxes in from
remote mountain communities slowed the results from some
northern provinces.

WHAT DOES IT MEAN, AND WHAT SHOULD WE SAY --
OR, MUCH ADO ABOUT NOTHING?
--------------


7. (C) Even if the voting on Sunday goes perfectly, we cannot
endorse or embrace this process with enthusiasm. The
government keeps trying to turn this into a gala celebration
of democracy, but the people are mostly not buying it. The
referendum is primarily a box-checking exercise, Voting yes
is widely, and probably correctly, viewed as the best way to
ensure a smoother path to elections before the end of the
year. The people are being given a choice, but a limited
one. According to the interim constitution, if this new draft
does not pass the referendum, the Council for National
Security (CNS) can pick any previous charter, amend it as
necessary, and promulgate it. The CNS has not committed to
which charter it would choose and revise if this draft fails,
so the people don't know what the alternative to this draft
is. And, realistically, the CNS really can't say which of
the previous (seventeen) charters it would choose. If they
announce that the alternative is the 1997 Constitution, than
the new draft would surely fail, as the CNS/government have
not made any clear argument why this new version is better.
If they announce any other constitution as the alternative,
they would raise a ruckus and be accused of being dictators
(even though at least one previous constitution - 1973 -- is
regarded as pretty good by some lawyers and academics.) It
is generally felt that the 1997 Constitution's flaws, which

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were real, could have been fixed through amendment more
efficiently than through writing a new charter.


8. (SBU) We therefore recommend that, in any public
statements about the referendum, regardless of the results,
we decline to get drawn too far into an assessment or
endorsement, and maintain our focus on the need to return to
fully civilian, elected government as soon as possible.
Suggested press guidance:

Q; WHAT DO WE THINK ABOUT THE THAI REFERENDUM?

A: -- We believe that the Thai people want to return to
civilian, elected government as soon as possible, and we
support them in this.

-- We are pleased that there was no violence in connection
with Sunday's voting. We hope that any challenges or
allegations of fraud will be fairly and transparently
adjudicated.

-- It is up to the Thai people to determine what is in their
constitution. There was, overall, a lively exchange of views
in the lead-up to the vote, although we note that some parts
of the country remain under martial law, which may have
inhibited some citizens from fully expressing their views.

-- We look forward to the next step in the restoration of
democratic government in Thailand -- elections before the end
of the year.

(If the charter passes the vote:)
Q: WHAT DO WE THINK ABOUT THIS CONSTITUTION?

A: -- As I said, it's up to the Thai people to determine what
is in their constitution. We hope that free and fair
elections before the end of this year will enable an elected
parliament to consider possible amendments to this draft, if
the Thai public supports changes.

(If the charter fails:)
A: -- As I said, it's up to the Thai people to determine what
is in their constitution. We hope that free and fair
elections before the end of the year will give rise to a
parliament that has the legitimacy to deal with
constitutional issues.
BOYCE