SEND LAWYERS, GUNS AND MONEY: THAILAND REFERENDUM

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BANGKOK 004393

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/12/2017
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL KDEM TH
SUBJECT: SEND LAWYERS, GUNS AND MONEY: THAILAND REFERENDUM
UPDATE

Classified By: Ambassador Ralph L. Boyce, reason 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: The campaign for the August 19 referendum
is in full swing. There are reports of some clearly illegal
campaign activities, such as vote-buying by opponents of the
draft. The government side has also clearly exceeded the law
in at least one case in which soldiers seized (although later
returned) anti-constitution posters. Post has underscored
the importance of permitting citizens to express their views
freely during the campaign. The government has taken the
position that while officials can only exhort citizens to
vote, it is up to the Constitution Drafting Assembly members
to argue on behalf of the constitution. This has led to a
very strong get-out-the-vote campaign, but a very weak
message in favor of the new constitution. Meanwhile,
constitution opponents, particularly some members of the
former ruling Thai Rak Thai, are campaigning actively against
the new charter. Despite this, virtually everyone assumes
that the constitution will pass, although perhaps with an
embarrassingly low turnout. The embassy and congen Chiang
Mai will have observers in the field for the vote. Thanks
largely to support from democracy funds from the Bureau of
Democracy, Human Rights and Labor (DRL),Thailand's
independent poll monitoring organization will have about 4000
observers in the field as well. This will be particularly
useful, as we anticipate both sides will continue to raise
accusations of illegal campaign activities even after the
vote. End summary.

WHAT EXACTLY IS LEGAL?
--------------


2. (C) With the ink not yet dry on the Referendum Law,
officials are scrambling to figure out just what is and is
not legal in the referendum campaign, and the Election
Commission is struggling to monitor the situation
nation-wide. Reports continue to circulate that opponents of
the constitution are offering money to voters in northeastern
provinces (particularly Surin, Sisaket and Buriram) to stay
home or vote no. This activity is being linked to former
Prime Minister Thaksin loyalist Newin Chidchob, known for his
confrontational political style, whose stronghold is in those
provinces. The Election Commission (ECT) has come under
criticism for not finding any evidence of the vote-buying so
far. (Note: poloff will be traveling in these areas this
week, and will report on voters' views and finances. End
note.)


3. (C) Vote buying is, at least, clearly illegal. So is the
distributing of T-shirts with anti-constitution slogans,
which has happened in some areas of the country (voters may
not be given anything of value in exchange for their vote;
this includes T-shirts.) Less clear is how to respond to
other anti-constitution activity, such as the sudden
appearance of anti-constitution bumper stickers on taxis in
early August. Government officials were clearly dismayed by
the bumper sticker campaign ("I accept passengers; I don't
accept the new constitution.") Officials have not yet sorted
out their position. One view holds that the bumper stickers
are legal as long as the drivers were not paid to display
them. A stricter interpretation holds that all such bumper
stickers are "advertising" and are not permitted on public
conveyances. It is not clear which interpretation will win
out. A phone survey of taxi companies we conducted today
indicates that the number of bumper stickers is probably
quite small and the companies have received no government
instruction about them. None of their drivers has faced
fines or other issues with police, as far as the central
offices know, although the press reports that some taxi
drivers have been questioned by police or told to remove
stickers. The government is particularly concerned about
taxi drivers, as they are one of the largest organized,
generally pro-Thaksin groups in the capital.


4. (C) It was clearly legal for former Senator Prathip
Ungsongtham Hata to print up posters saying, "It is not
illegal to vote no in the referendum." (Prathip is one of the
leaders of the UDD -- United Front of Democracy against
Dictatorship - the main pro-Thaksin/anti-coup protest group;
this is the new name of the Democratic Alliance Against
Democracy - DAAD.) Nonetheless, the posters were confiscated
near her home in Bangkok's slum neighborhood on July 18. She

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reported that the posters were seized by a small group of
soldiers and police, who claimed that they were checking the
containers for guns. Prathip filed a complaint with the
police, and consulted with the ECT, which confirmed that the
content of the posters was legal. The posters, minus those
damaged in the seizure, were returned by the end of the day.

EMBASSY RAISES REFERENDUM CONCERNS
--------------


5. (C) Polcouns raised these cases on August 9 with Thirapat
Serangsan, Minister to the Prime Minister's Office, who is
one of the government's leaders in the "get out the vote"
campaign. Thirapat says that putting the new constitution to
a referendum was his idea, in order to gain more legitimacy
for a document born in the wake of a coup. He was clearly
struggling with some of the questions of what is permitted
and not permitted in the campaign. Polcouns underscored the
need for citizens to have the opportunity to express their
views, or else the referendum would be viewed as a sham.
Polcouns noted in particular our concern about the seizure of
posters from the UDD member, as there could be no legal basis
for soldiers to be involved in the search or seizure,
regardless of the content of the posters. After consulting
the law, the Minister agreed that there did not appear to be
anything illegal about the posters, and conceded that, as
there is no martial law in Bangkok, soldiers should not have
been involved, even if they were investigating a report of
illegal weapons possession. He said that he had not heard of
the case, and agreed to look into it. We subsequently
provided him with a press report and with information we got
directly from UDD leader Prathip about the incident.

GOVERNMENT HAMSTRUNG
--------------


6. (C) Minister Thirapat said that the government believes
that the constitution will pass the referendum, but they are
concerned that the turnout will be so low that it will
undermine the legitimacy of the new charter. He worried that
turnout could be as low as 10-20 percent. (The ECT told us
unofficially that 35 percent was about the best they could
expect, although in recent press reports they are predicting
a much higher turnout. Many officials have echoed the
concerns about low turnout.) The government is therefore
involved in a veritable orgy of events to mobilize voters.
Minister Thirapat took a street theater group out to the
weekend market and shopping areas to drum up support in
Bangkok. Participants from all over the central part of the
country were bused in on Monday morning for a rally at the
Democracy Monument led by the Prime Minister.


7. (C) The government is hamstrung, at least officially, by
the terms it has set itself. The PM has told government
agencies to maintain a neutral position, just encouraging
people to inform themselves and vote as they believe.
Official advertising and events appear to hew to this
position, as far we can determine. (One of the participants
in Monday's rally, for example, told us that it was part of
the campaign to get the citizens to "use our right" and vote
in the referendum.) This leaves the campaigning for the
constitution primarily to the Constitution Drafting Assembly
members. These venerable academics and bureaucrats have a
limited budget and outreach to the rural population, which is
not predisposed to take a keen interest in this long, legal
document. The government structure of village chiefs and
provincial authorities would be the natural network to
publicize the positive elements in the new constitution, but
they are, at least officially, not supposed to take sides.
(Comment: We expect that discipline is breaking down out in
the countryside, however, and presume that some local
officials are arguing for the draft charter, and some
against. End comment.) Political parties that support the
constitution, such as the Democrats, are saving their
resources for the December parliamentary elections. They are
also lukewarm in their support, seeing the adoption of the
constitution as desirable because it is the next step to
return to elected government, not because they have any great
enthusiasm for the new charter's provisions.


8. (C) This leaves the field free for the charter opponents,
who include some of the very talented politicians from former

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Thai Rak Thai. They do not expect, by most reports, to
succeed in blocking the adoption of the constitution, but
they are trying to make this a show of strength. One
campaign slogan ("If you love Thaksin, reject the
constitution") will be particularly infuriating for the
government. If they can muster a significant no vote,
particularly in the areas where they are active (including
Bangkok),this will be a sign that they will be a real force
in the parliamentary election.

COMMENT
--------------


9. (C) With only one more week to go, the government expects
a reasonably successful referendum, and will pull out all the
stops this week to drum up more voter participation. After
the election, we expect further investigations into
vote-buying allegations, as well as accusations from the
opposition that the government rigged the vote. Due in large
part to support from DRL democracy funds, some 4000
independent monitors from Pollwatch-PNET, Thailand's
independent poll-monitoring organization, will be deployed to
observe the voting; this should provide an important reality
check on accusations of fraud. Embassy and Congen Chiang Mai
will also have about a dozen observation teams working.

BOYCE