THAI CONSTITUTIONAL REFERENDUM APPROACHES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 BANGKOK 004323 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR EAP/MLS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/07/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KDEM KIRF TH SUBJECT: THAI CONSTITUTIONAL REFERENDUM APPROACHES REF: A. BANGKOK 4027 (OFFICIALS PREDICT REFERENDUM PASSAGE) ¶B. BANGKOK 3238 (CONSTITUTION NEARS COMPLETION) ¶C. 06 BANGKOK 02088 (THE 1997 CONSTITUTION: FINDING AND FIXING THE LEAKS) ¶D. 05 BANGKOK 06958 (MORE CONTROVERSY WITH THE SELECTION OF THE NATIONAL COUNTER CORRUPTION COMMISSION) ¶E. 05 BANGKOK 06269 (SENATE SELECTION OF NATIONAL BROADCAST COMMITTEE COMES AMID CONTROVERSY) Classified By: Charge d'Affaires a.i. James F. Entwistle, Reason 1.4 (a ) SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (SBU) On July 6, Thailand's Constitutional Drafting Assembly (CDA) voted to approve a slightly modified version of the new constitution which expanded the size of the House of Representatives, endorsed improved civil rights protections, imposed additional penalties for political fraud, and declined to designate Buddhism as the state religion. The final version of the document, which will go before voters in a widely-publicized August 19 referendum, contains very few major revisions from the earlier draft (ref B) and is touted by its supporters as improving upon the abrogated 1997 constitution; charter opponents, however, fear the new document will overly restrict political parties and oppose its drafting by a coup-appointed body. Latest polling indicates the public is unenthusiastic about this process, despite a vigorous and mostly objective publicity campaign by the government; voters appear likely to approve the draft, however, if only to hasten the resolution of the political crisis and the return to elected government. The 2007 draft charter appears good enough to serve as the next step toward the restoration of democratic rule, despite its flaws, which may be addressed by the next elected parliament. End summary. FINAL DRAFT CONTAINS FEW SURPRISES -------------- ¶2. (SBU) On July 6, Thailand's 100-member Constitutional Drafting Assembly (CDA) completed its review of the country's new draft constitution and made several modifications to the original document that the 35-member Constitutional Drafting Committee (CDC) had finalized on June 11. (Note: See reftel B for additional details on the June 11 constitutional draft. End note.) After a nearly month-long debate, the CDA ;ultimately voted to reinstate some provisions the CDC had originally opposed, expanded some civil rights protections, imposed additional penalties for political fraud, and declined to designate Buddhism as the state religion. On the whole, however, the final version of the constitution contains very few major revisions since ref B, and most of its key provisions remain unchanged. The current, completed draft will be submitted to a national referendum on August 19. ¶3. (SBU) One of the few substantial changes in the final draft is the reinstatement of language calling for each electoral district to elect three people to a 480-seat House of Representatives. Charter drafters had originally included such language in the first version of the document, while an interim draft had instead favored single-seat electoral districts in a 400-seat House. The CDA's reinstatement of multi-member constituencies represents a defeat for many former Thai Rak Thai politicians who had favor single-seat constituencies. Proponents of multi-member districts maintain that this system impedes vote-buying, which remains a major concern. ¶4. (U) The composition of the 150-seat Senate -- in which 76 Senators will be elected and 74 Senators will be appointed -- remains unchanged from the June 11 version. The CDA did add transitional language, however, designating the presently serving military-appointed National Legislative Assembly (NLA) as the temporary Senate until the new Senate is convened. (Note: prior to the 1997 Constitution, all senators were appointed. End note.) BANGKOK 00004323 002 OF 004 ¶5. (U) In its final review, the CDA expanded some civil rights by amending the constitution to state that "sexual identity" could not be the basis of discrimination, elaborated upon protections of religious observance, and provided for "proper legal assistance" for civil court cases. The CDA also added provisions for eldercare facilities, assistance to the mentally ill and people with disabilities. In many cases, however, it appears as if the proper exercise of these expanded rights will be left to specific wording in future enabling legislation. ¶6. (U) The CDA chose to leave in place a clause in the charter that some legal experts had interpreted as granting amnesty to coup leaders. CDA members claimed, however, that the clause is designed to protect members of institutions such as the military-appointed Asset Examination Commissioners (AEC),which has been investigating allegations of corruption committed by the deposed government, from lawsuits by a new (possibly pro-Thaksin) government. The CDA left in place a provision dissolving the governing Council for National Security (CNS) when a new cabinet takes office. ¶7. (SBU) The CDA left in place, and in some cases added, language that some politicians and academics complain would circumscribe the ability of political parties to set their own political and economic policies and platforms. For example, the constitution stipulates that the government should support the King's "philosophy of a sufficiency economy" by "adhering to financial discipline" and "promoting the fair distribution of income," among other goals. Many critics believe these provisions are too vague and could hamstring future government policies. Other provisions, such as those which could force the dissolution of a political party should courts convict a party member of fraud, and a clause forbidding the merger of political parties, have also been viewed by some politicians as unnecessarily harsh and restrictive. (Note: the former ruling Thai Rak Thai party achieved its electoral strength partly by merging with several smaller parties. End Note.) ¶8. (SBU) The draft gives enhanced responsibilities to the judiciary, which will play a key role in the appointment of the 74 selected senators and the independent watchdog bodies, such as the National Counter Corruption Commission (NCCC) and the Election Commission. These watchdogs were established by the 1997 Constitution to counterbalance the stronger executive it created, but they clearly failed to serve their function. The NCCC is a good example. In May 2005, the NCCC members had to resign after voting themselves an illegal raise. The Senate was never able to appoint successors, due to procedural and conflict of interest problems. Since the NCCC was mandated by the 1997 Constitution as the one body to examine accusations of official corruption, a backlog of more than a thousand cases built up during the interval (ref D). The Senate was similarly unable (for 5 years) to constitute the National Broadcasting Commission, which was supposed to regulate the broadcasting industry and allocate broadcast frequencies (ref E). These failures led the constitution drafters this time to turn to the courts to appoint the members of these oversight bodies, a decision that remains controversial. ¶9. (SBU) The CDA ultimately voted down an amendment to constitutionally designate Buddhism as Thailand's state religion, a provision which had also been repeatedly rejected in prior constitutional drafting deliberations. The CDA did add language, however, which says that Buddhism "is the religion long professed by the majority of Thai people". Surprisingly, Buddhist ecclesiastical groups -- which during the debate had vociferously demanded the state religion provision and even went as far as staging a hunger strike in front of parliament -- have endorsed the draft despite the provision's absence. They instead vow to seek to amend the constitution after its promulgation. COMETH THE REFERENDUM -------------- ¶10. (U) Following the release of the final constitutional BANGKOK 00004323 003 OF 004 draft, the government has funded a creative voter education campaign to raise awareness of the August 19 referendum -- the first in Thai history -- through television, radio and billboard advertisements. Government ministers at the highest levels, Election Commission members, and provincial Ad Hoc Committees on Public Opinion and People's Participation (CPOPP -- ref A) have sponsored public rallies and discussions on the new document. The Election Commission has also mailed a copy of the new constitution to every household in the country. Media outlets have extensively covered the draft, although news outlets have tended to factually report the new constitution's contents rather than editorialize on its merits. A directive from the Prime Minister requires that official government messages on the charter remain neutral and focus primarily on raising awareness of the referendum and voter turnout. So far, the official campaign seems to respect that directive; the songs and slogans in the ads all note that citizens should go to the referendum "to approve or not to approve" the new charter. ¶11. (SBU) The publicity blitz seems to have achieved some results, as polls conducted the last week of July indicate that a majority of the citizenry is more aware of the approaching referendum compared with previous poll results. The same polls indicate that most voters plan on voting in favor of the draft, although voter turnout will likely not be impressive. (Note: The Election Commission has set a voter turnout target of 50%, which many of our contacts view as overly optimistic. End note.) There are news reports that voters in several provinces are being offered 200-300 baht (less than usdols 10) to vote against the constitution; there is also an active "vote no" campaign. Many voters are only beginning to pay attention to the issue, so the success of the referendum is still far from certain. ¶12. (SBU) While extensive discourse between groups that oppose the constitution -- mainly former Thai Rak Thai party loyalists, academics, and some NGOs -- and charter proponents has been infrequent, one notable exception was an August 3 televised debate between the two factions. At the debate, members of the Constitution Drafting Assembly sparred with two university academics and a former Thai Rak Thai Party leader who oppose the new constitution. During the event, the document's supporters praised provisions in the new charter that limit the power of the executive branch. The charter's opponents, however, lamented that the new charter originated from a coup d'etat, would lead to weaker political parties, and an ascendant bureaucratic and capitalist class. Although the audience seemed to consist mostly of charter opponents, the absence of an extremely large crowd at this event, as well as at other anti-charter rallies, indicates that charter opponents have thus far largely failed to mobilize enough opposition to substantially sway public opinion. THE GOLDILOCKS CONSTITUTION -------------- ¶13. (SBU) In the televised debate, two fundamentally different views of political life were clearly articulated. The former TRT politician attacked the new draft for its limitations on elected politicians, who have a direct "connection" to the people. Instead, too much power is vested in the independent commissions and the courts, who do not "come from the people." The pro-draft side argued that the 2007 Charter gave the people more direct access to democracy: it better protects their individual liberties, and lowers the number of voter signatures needed to petition for impeachment of an official or propose new legislation. The pro-draft debaters reflect the view of much of the "Bangkok elite,' who see politicians, elected or not, as just another interest group, like businessmen or trade unionists -- not really the people's voice. One pro-draft debater argued that weaker government is a good outcome. The 1997 Constitution tried to correct Thailand's long-term problem: governments that were too weak. The 1997 provisions, in his view, made the government too strong. The new charter will be just right. BANGKOK 00004323 004 OF 004 COMMENT - POLITICIANS: CAN'T LIVE WITH THEM, CAN'T LIVE WITHOUT THEM -------------- ¶14. (C) The new draft clearly has some good points, particularly the strong protections for human rights and civil liberties. But, like the 1997 constitution, the 2007 draft shows that it was crafted by academics and bureaucrats with limited practical experience of politics, and an ingrained distrust of politicians. This may be understandable to some degree, but no one has yet come up a convincing way to have elected, democratic government without political parties playing a leading role. One of the constitution drafters told us that their goal was to have a constitution that was "good enough" to ensure the transition back to elected government; the new, elected parliament would then be able to consider amendments. It appears to us that the drafters have met this modest goal, and that the 2007 constitution can serve as a next step back toward the restoration of democratic government here, if it is adopted on August 19. ENTWISTLE