THAI RAK THAI PLANS TO RISE FROM THE ASHES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 004042

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/25/2017
TAGS: PGOV KDEM TH
SUBJECT: THAI RAK THAI PLANS TO RISE FROM THE ASHES

REF: A. BANGKOK 4003 (VIOLENT DEMONSTRATION)

B. BANGKOK 3978 (SONTHI'S CANDIDACY)

C. BANGKOK 2994 (TRT DISSOLVED)

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Classified By: Deputy Political Counselor David R. Greenberg, reason 1.
4 (b) and (d).

SUMMARY
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1. (C) Former Thai Rak Thai (TRT) figures will soon try to
register a new political party to compete in this year's
elections. The new Party Leader has not yet emerged but may
be a close associate of deposed Prime Minister Thaksin,
although a contact told us Thaksin will not publicly endorse
the party. This contact predicted that the reincarnated
version of TRT could win a plurality in the next election,
but we believe this assessment may be overly optimistic and
is certainly premature. The officials who ran TRT from the
time of the 2006 coup d'etat until the party's dissolution
appear resentful of their colleagues who retreated from the
political scene after the coup only to reemerge recently.
Former TRT official Newin Chidchob was alleged to be
responsible for the violent demonstration outside the Privy
Council President's Bangkok home on July 22. End Summary.

WORKING GROUP FORMS, LEADERSHIP TBD
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2. (SBU) On July 18, the legislature lifted the legal
restriction (in place since the coup) that prohibited the
registration of new political parties. The final version of
the law did not include proposed provisions that would have
hampered the reemergence of Thai Rak Thai (e.g., barring use
of the name or initials of a dissolved party). However, the
legislature also intends to pass a new political party law,
which may include such provisions -- or, the Election
Commission may be entitled to exercise discretion upon
receipt of an application for registration.


3. (C) Politicians formerly associated with Thai Rak Thai
have formed a committee which is working to establish a new
political party as the reincarnated version of TRT. This
75-person committee consists primarily of former TRT
legislators, few of whom can claim top-tier status in the
political class. While the list of committee members
includes people from all regions of Thailand, the majority
appear to come from the Northeast, the country's most
populous region, and a stronghold of support for TRT.


4. (C) The committee President is Sompong Amornwiwat, a
veteran politician who most recently served as Trade
Representative in Thaksin's administration. Sompong appears
to be one of the leading candidates to become Party Leader of
the TRT successor party. (Others include former
Communications Minister Surapong Suebwonglee, and Somchai
Wongsawat, a former Justice Ministry Permanent Secretary who
is also Thaksin's brother-in-law.) The party will have to
decide on its leadership before seeking registration. The
senior figures from the TRT executive board -- who now are
covered by a five-year ban from politics (ref C) -- appear
relegated to an advisory board.

OPTIMISTIC OUTLOOK FOR ELECTIONS
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5. (C) Former TRT Deputy Leader Pongphon Adireksan -- one of
those who is now advising the committee -- met with us on
July 24 and offered an optimistic projection for the next
elections. Citing his experience as a long-time politician
and two-time TRT campaign manager, Pongphon estimated that
the Democrat Party, Chart Thai, and Mahachon would not make
significant gains over their 2005 showing, winning no more
than 150 seats in the new 480-seat House. He predicted that
major TRT splinter groups Matchima (led by Somsak Thepsutin)
and Samanchan (led principally by Suwat Liptapanlop and Pinij
Jarusombat) would win no more than 50 seats each. The Ruam
Chai Thai group associated with former Deputy Prime Minister

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Somkid Jatusripitak might win 10 seats. Any further gains by
one of these three TRT splinter groups would likely come at
the expense of the others, rather than the TRT successor
party. Like other contacts of ours, Pongphon saw little hope
for the "Love the Nation" (Rak Chart) party, which might be
established by businessman Kajit Habanananda and could serve
as a vehicle for General Sonthi Boonyaratglin (ref B).
Pongphon predicted Rak Chart would fail to win even a single
seat in the parliament.


6. (C) Having estimated that these parties could win 260
House seats, Pongphon assessed that the remaining 220 would
fall almost by default to the TRT successor party. The
reincarnated TRT would appeal to the public by advocating the
populist policies of the Thaksin era. He predicted a
significant "sympathy vote" for TRT, although he also said
the party would in some ways distance itself symbolically
from Thaksin. Thaksin would not publicly endorse the party,
he predicted. Pongphon did not indicate that Thaksin would
provide funding (as is commonly assumed),but he asserted
that the new TRT would be no worse off financially than its
rivals.

RIFT AMONG FORMER TRT EXECUTIVES
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7. (C) Pongphon refrained from estimating how many former TRT
executives were actively supporting the resurrection of their
party. But he indicated that the small group of figures
(including himself) who steered TRT from the time of the coup
until the party's dissolution resented their former
colleagues who had lain low after September 19 but now sought
to reassert themselves. He specifically expressed a degree
of scorn for TRT's former top-ranking Deputy Leader, Sudarat
Keyuraphan, and Yaowapa Wongsawat (Thaksin's sister). When
we asked whether Sudarat had joined former TRT Acting Leader
Chaturon Chaiseng in the gestating party's advisory board,
Pongphon seemed unwilling to specify her role (or absence
thereof) but simply stated, "Well, I won't be looking for any
advice from her."

ATTRIBUTING RESPONSIBILITY FOR UNREST
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8. (C) Pongphon also asserted with certainty that former TRT
Deputy Leader Newin Chidchob had organized the July 22
demonstration at the Bangkok home of Privy Council President
Prem Tinsulanonda, which turned violent (ref A). Pongphon
said Newin's political talents lay primarily in organizing
such street actions, and, regrettably, Thaksin liked to see
such things take place. (Other contacts from TRT have
previously confirmed Newin's role in organizing anti-coup
demonstrations.) Pongphon said the new TRT party would
exclude the less reputable associates of Thaksin -- not only
Newin, but also Prommin Lertsuridej, former Secretary General
to the Prime Minister.

COMMENT
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9. (C) Many voters liked the populist policies associated
with TRT, and they should have the option of voting for a
party that occupies the same political space. But Pongphon's
expectations for an easy plurality in the next parliament may
be overly optimistic. His new party's formal leaders remains
undetermined but are certain to lack the stature of their
predecessors; the party's informal leadership appears
afflicted by factionalism, and we have not yet seen that it
will have at its disposal the same sort of financing that
helped to fuel TRT's campaigns. Nevertheless, it seems
certain that a party wearing the TRT mantle would be an
important factor in the next election, and we will watch
carefully how the authorities react to this party's emergence.
ENTWISTLE