OFFICIALS PREDICT PASSAGE OF REFERENDUM IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BANGKOK 004027 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR EAP/MLS E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/23/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM TH SUBJECT: OFFICIALS PREDICT PASSAGE OF REFERENDUM IN NORTHEAST THAILAND REF: A. BANGKOK 02780 (CHASING SURAYUD IN NE THAILAND) ¶B. BANGKOK 02565 (PREPARING FOR THE REFERENDUM IN NE THAILAND) ¶C. 06 BANGKOK 07549 (POLITICAL MANEUVERING IN NE THAILAND) ¶D. 06 BANGKOK 07286 (CHASING "UNDERCURRENTS" IN NE THAILAND) Classified By: Political Counselor Susan M. Sutton. Reason 1.4 (b,d) ¶1. (C) Summary. Government and NGO contacts in the upper provinces of the rural Northeast uniformly predict that voters will support the draft constitution in the August 19 referendum. Although concerned that voter turnout will not be high in this non-compulsory balloting, and admitting that most voters do not understand the details of the draft charter, our contacts emphasized that voters view support for the constitution as "the only way" to new elections. Government officials, while pushing voter turnout and education efforts are prohibited from campaigning for the charter's passage. Former members of parliament--including Thaksin supporters--are not campaigning against the referendum. To the contrary, they are reportedly eager for new elections and actively jockeying for support and money. While several interlocutors lamented the low level of political sophistication among local voters, by all accounts, the people of Isaan evince a practical approach to politics often missing in Bangkok. End Summary. ¶2. (SBU) As part of our regular travel to Northeast Thailand (aka Isaan, refs) poloff visited the upper provinces of Nong Khai, Udon Thani, Sakhon Nakhon and Nakhon Phanom on July 19-20. These four provinces, two of which border Laos, are slightly more developed and less dependent on agriculture than their neighbors (due in part to border trade and the legacy of Vietnam war era U.S. bases). They remain, however, a solid slice of the Thai heartland. Voters in these provinces--as throughout vote-rich Isaan--overwhelmingly supported candidates from ousted Prime Minister Thaksin's Thai Rak Thai (TRT) party in elections from 2001-2006. REFERENDUM PREP UNDERWAY -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Government offices in all four provinces buzzed with preparations for the August 19 referendum. While the Ministry of Interior-appointed Governors (Note: only the Governor of Bangkok is elected. End Note) serve as senior advisers to these efforts, the provincial Election Commission (EC) is responsible for administering the vote and pushing voter turnout. The newly created Ad Hoc Committee on Public Opinion and People's Participation (CPOPP) is responsible for distributing copies of the new charter and holding education sessions on its contents. ¶4. (C) In practice, the relationship--and effectiveness--of these entities varied by province. The Governor of Nakhon Phanom said that the CPOPP there is relatively weak, and that the EC has taken up much of the slack in producing an education campaign for voters. EC officials in Sakhon Nakhon, however, emphasized the strength of the local CPOPP's network among village leaders and elders. Both government officials and NGO leaders emphasizes the importance of local "democratic volunteers," usually two people in each village supported by public funds to enhance local understanding of the referendum and answer questions. ¶5. (C) In all four provinces, officials at all levels emphasized that they were specifically prohibited from campaigning for the charter's passage. In fact, the Governor of Sakhon Nakhon complained that the central government was "not brave enough" to give him approval to push voters to vote yes on the constitution. He asked what message this sent to voters, "does the government not believe in this new constitution?" The Governor of neighboring Nakhon Phanom, on the other hand, was proud of this non-partisan stance, pointing out that government advertisements for the referendum only asked people to use their right to vote and to study the charter. Nowhere did the government urge passage of the document. BANGKOK 00004027 002 OF 003 ¶6. (C) Our contacts were similarly open in acknowledging that the "real" campaign to promote the referendum vote was just about to start and that most voters knew little of the details in the draft charter. Several disagreed on what segment of voters are generally aware of the coming vote. EC officials in Udon Thani estimated that perhaps only 30 percent of local voters were aware of the coming referendum. EC officials in Sakhon Nakhon were much more optimistic, claiming that a solid majority of local voters know about the August 19 ballot, even if they have not read the constitution yet. ¶7. (C) According to the Nong Khai EC, officials will distribute copies of the charter on July 31, kicking off a campaign of public meetings with local leaders (village and district chiefs) to explain the document. Mock ballots, complete with instructions, will be mailed out to every household ten days before the vote. Officials from other provinces echoed this plan, with slight variations in timing. When asked if this approach focused too much on a top-down strategy of educating local leaders, vice direct efforts aimed at voters, a local NGO representative laughed. "Who will read a 300-article document? Our people don't read. It is a problem. But they will ask their village chief what to think about the constitution." This same NGO leader, a farmer himself, also emphasized that the local democratic volunteers would help fill in the of these outreach efforts. Separately, the CPOPP chief in Nong Khai pointed to the poverty in the region and demands of subsistence living: "most people (in the countryside) don't know what they're going to eat tomorrow, let alone politics." CONFIDENT IT WILL PASS IN ISAAN -------------- ¶8. (C) Officials in all thirteen of our meetings were confident that the constitution will be approved in their province. As the Governor of Nakhon Phanom put it, "people understand that passing the referendum is the way to have the next election, and they want a return to a normal government." An NGO leader agreed, saying, "personally (I) don't agree with the coup or this government, but passage of the referendum will get us to elections and a new government." More important, given the low-level of voter attention to the issue, local politicians are reportedly being directed by former members of parliament (MPs) to push their people to vote in favor of the constitution. CPOPP officials in Sakhon Nakhon said that, while some former TRT MPs in Bangkok have called for voters to reject the charter, local TRT leaders are quietly telling their supporters to vote yes. "They want their jobs back." The Governor of Sakhon Nakhon echoed the sentiment of officials in other provinces, saying that people opposed to the constitution won't bother voting at all. He added that former TRT MPs were not using their money to support no-vote efforts, "they're saving it for the election." Officials from all four provinces denied any serious campaigns to push for a no-vote. TURNOUT IS AN ISSUE -------------- ¶9. (C) Our contacts were concerned, however, by the potential for low voter turnout. While the current, interim constitution sets no minimum voter turnout for passage, the referendum, unlike national elections, will not be compulsory (Note: in national elections, failure to vote can mean a temporary suspension of voting rights. End Note). Given that a significant proportion of voters in all four provinces work in Bangkok or other provinces, and in some cases, foreign countries, the lack of a penalty for not voting will likely preclude many voters from making the trek back to their home voting station. Several officials cited the impact that heavy rains (currently blanketing parts of the country) could have on turnout. The Udon Thani Governor also cited the nature of the vote as an obstacle to high turnout, "how do you get people excited about voting for a piece of paper, instead of a real human candidate?" Estimates varied, but ranged from 30 percent turnout in Nong Khai to 60 percent in BANGKOK 00004027 003 OF 003 Sakhon Nakhon. NEW ELECTION LOOMS -------------- ¶10. (C) While septel will describe in more detail the potential electoral map in Isaan, future elections are on everyone's mind. The ECs in each province are already preparing for the next vote, though there is little clarity on procedures for monitoring already-underway campaigns (a new law establishing the rules has not yet been written) or how exactly the election system will work, with a constitutionally mandated switch from single-member to multi-member districts. ¶11. (C) Our contacts dismissed Bangkok-based rumors of political "undercurrents" i.e. organized opposition to the government by former Thaksin supporters. Instead, they painted a picture of former TRT politicians jockeying for money and influence ahead of the next election. The Governor of Nong Khai said that a recent anti-regime protest involving an estimated 10,000 people was a "show of strength" by local TRT MPs to raise money. Officials from all four provinces emphasized that former TRT MPs--if not banned from politics in the court case against the party--would win handily in a new contest, no matter which party they run with. As the Nakhon Phanom Governor explained, "politics here is not about the party, it's about the candidate and their personal network." For those MPs banned from politics for five years (including all ten MPs from Udon Thani and seven from Sakhon Nakhon),they are already working to select surrogates to run in their place. An EC official from Sakhon Nakhon said that the former MPs in his province had recently met as a group to decide who would run, and almost certainly win, their seats. The Governor of Sakhon Nakhon said that TRT's successor parties, such as Matchima, are already working to secure the support of former TRT figures in his province. COMMENT -------------- ¶12. (C) These confident predictions that the referendum will pass don't appear to be rooted in any scientific certainty, but they reflect the practiced political practicality of rural Thai politics. While academics and activists in Bangkok debate the moral dilemma of voting for a constitution written by a non-democratic government, officials in the countryside are focused on getting to the next step, rather than examining the path thus far. ENTWISTLE