OFFICIALS PREDICT PASSAGE OF REFERENDUM IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BANGKOK 004027

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EAP/MLS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/23/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM TH
SUBJECT: OFFICIALS PREDICT PASSAGE OF REFERENDUM IN
NORTHEAST THAILAND

REF: A. BANGKOK 02780 (CHASING SURAYUD IN NE THAILAND)

B. BANGKOK 02565 (PREPARING FOR THE REFERENDUM IN
NE THAILAND)

C. 06 BANGKOK 07549 (POLITICAL MANEUVERING IN NE
THAILAND)

D. 06 BANGKOK 07286 (CHASING "UNDERCURRENTS" IN NE
THAILAND)

Classified By: Political Counselor Susan M. Sutton. Reason 1.4 (b,d)


1. (C) Summary. Government and NGO contacts in the upper
provinces of the rural Northeast uniformly predict that
voters will support the draft constitution in the August 19
referendum. Although concerned that voter turnout will not
be high in this non-compulsory balloting, and admitting that
most voters do not understand the details of the draft
charter, our contacts emphasized that voters view support for
the constitution as "the only way" to new elections.
Government officials, while pushing voter turnout and
education efforts are prohibited from campaigning for the
charter's passage. Former members of parliament--including
Thaksin supporters--are not campaigning against the
referendum. To the contrary, they are reportedly eager for
new elections and actively jockeying for support and money.
While several interlocutors lamented the low level of
political sophistication among local voters, by all accounts,
the people of Isaan evince a practical approach to politics
often missing in Bangkok. End Summary.


2. (SBU) As part of our regular travel to Northeast Thailand
(aka Isaan, refs) poloff visited the upper provinces of Nong
Khai, Udon Thani, Sakhon Nakhon and Nakhon Phanom on July
19-20. These four provinces, two of which border Laos, are
slightly more developed and less dependent on agriculture
than their neighbors (due in part to border trade and the
legacy of Vietnam war era U.S. bases). They remain, however,
a solid slice of the Thai heartland. Voters in these
provinces--as throughout vote-rich Isaan--overwhelmingly
supported candidates from ousted Prime Minister Thaksin's
Thai Rak Thai (TRT) party in elections from 2001-2006.

REFERENDUM PREP UNDERWAY
--------------


3. (SBU) Government offices in all four provinces buzzed with
preparations for the August 19 referendum. While the
Ministry of Interior-appointed Governors (Note: only the
Governor of Bangkok is elected. End Note) serve as senior
advisers to these efforts, the provincial Election Commission
(EC) is responsible for administering the vote and pushing
voter turnout. The newly created Ad Hoc Committee on Public
Opinion and People's Participation (CPOPP) is responsible for
distributing copies of the new charter and holding education
sessions on its contents.


4. (C) In practice, the relationship--and effectiveness--of
these entities varied by province. The Governor of Nakhon
Phanom said that the CPOPP there is relatively weak, and that
the EC has taken up much of the slack in producing an
education campaign for voters. EC officials in Sakhon
Nakhon, however, emphasized the strength of the local CPOPP's
network among village leaders and elders. Both government
officials and NGO leaders emphasizes the importance of local
"democratic volunteers," usually two people in each village
supported by public funds to enhance local understanding of
the referendum and answer questions.


5. (C) In all four provinces, officials at all levels
emphasized that they were specifically prohibited from
campaigning for the charter's passage. In fact, the Governor
of Sakhon Nakhon complained that the central government was
"not brave enough" to give him approval to push voters to
vote yes on the constitution. He asked what message this
sent to voters, "does the government not believe in this new
constitution?" The Governor of neighboring Nakhon Phanom, on
the other hand, was proud of this non-partisan stance,
pointing out that government advertisements for the
referendum only asked people to use their right to vote and
to study the charter. Nowhere did the government urge
passage of the document.

BANGKOK 00004027 002 OF 003




6. (C) Our contacts were similarly open in acknowledging that
the "real" campaign to promote the referendum vote was just
about to start and that most voters knew little of the
details in the draft charter. Several disagreed on what
segment of voters are generally aware of the coming vote. EC
officials in Udon Thani estimated that perhaps only 30
percent of local voters were aware of the coming referendum.
EC officials in Sakhon Nakhon were much more optimistic,
claiming that a solid majority of local voters know about the
August 19 ballot, even if they have not read the constitution
yet.


7. (C) According to the Nong Khai EC, officials will
distribute copies of the charter on July 31, kicking off a
campaign of public meetings with local leaders (village and
district chiefs) to explain the document. Mock ballots,
complete with instructions, will be mailed out to every
household ten days before the vote. Officials from other
provinces echoed this plan, with slight variations in timing.
When asked if this approach focused too much on a top-down
strategy of educating local leaders, vice direct efforts
aimed at voters, a local NGO representative laughed. "Who
will read a 300-article document? Our people don't read. It
is a problem. But they will ask their village chief what to
think about the constitution." This same NGO leader, a
farmer himself, also emphasized that the local democratic
volunteers would help fill in the of these outreach efforts.
Separately, the CPOPP chief in Nong Khai pointed to the
poverty in the region and demands of subsistence living:
"most people (in the countryside) don't know what they're
going to eat tomorrow, let alone politics."

CONFIDENT IT WILL PASS IN ISAAN
--------------


8. (C) Officials in all thirteen of our meetings were
confident that the constitution will be approved in their
province. As the Governor of Nakhon Phanom put it, "people
understand that passing the referendum is the way to have the
next election, and they want a return to a normal
government." An NGO leader agreed, saying, "personally (I)
don't agree with the coup or this government, but passage of
the referendum will get us to elections and a new
government." More important, given the low-level of voter
attention to the issue, local politicians are reportedly
being directed by former members of parliament (MPs) to push
their people to vote in favor of the constitution. CPOPP
officials in Sakhon Nakhon said that, while some former TRT
MPs in Bangkok have called for voters to reject the charter,
local TRT leaders are quietly telling their supporters to
vote yes. "They want their jobs back." The Governor of
Sakhon Nakhon echoed the sentiment of officials in other
provinces, saying that people opposed to the constitution
won't bother voting at all. He added that former TRT MPs
were not using their money to support no-vote efforts,
"they're saving it for the election." Officials from all
four provinces denied any serious campaigns to push for a
no-vote.

TURNOUT IS AN ISSUE
--------------


9. (C) Our contacts were concerned, however, by the potential
for low voter turnout. While the current, interim
constitution sets no minimum voter turnout for passage, the
referendum, unlike national elections, will not be compulsory
(Note: in national elections, failure to vote can mean a
temporary suspension of voting rights. End Note). Given that
a significant proportion of voters in all four provinces work
in Bangkok or other provinces, and in some cases, foreign
countries, the lack of a penalty for not voting will likely
preclude many voters from making the trek back to their home
voting station. Several officials cited the impact that
heavy rains (currently blanketing parts of the country) could
have on turnout. The Udon Thani Governor also cited the
nature of the vote as an obstacle to high turnout, "how do
you get people excited about voting for a piece of paper,
instead of a real human candidate?" Estimates varied, but
ranged from 30 percent turnout in Nong Khai to 60 percent in

BANGKOK 00004027 003 OF 003


Sakhon Nakhon.

NEW ELECTION LOOMS
--------------


10. (C) While septel will describe in more detail the
potential electoral map in Isaan, future elections are on
everyone's mind. The ECs in each province are already
preparing for the next vote, though there is little clarity
on procedures for monitoring already-underway campaigns (a
new law establishing the rules has not yet been written) or
how exactly the election system will work, with a
constitutionally mandated switch from single-member to
multi-member districts.


11. (C) Our contacts dismissed Bangkok-based rumors of
political "undercurrents" i.e. organized opposition to the
government by former Thaksin supporters. Instead, they
painted a picture of former TRT politicians jockeying for
money and influence ahead of the next election. The Governor
of Nong Khai said that a recent anti-regime protest involving
an estimated 10,000 people was a "show of strength" by local
TRT MPs to raise money. Officials from all four provinces
emphasized that former TRT MPs--if not banned from politics
in the court case against the party--would win handily in a
new contest, no matter which party they run with. As the
Nakhon Phanom Governor explained, "politics here is not about
the party, it's about the candidate and their personal
network." For those MPs banned from politics for five years
(including all ten MPs from Udon Thani and seven from Sakhon
Nakhon),they are already working to select surrogates to run
in their place. An EC official from Sakhon Nakhon said that
the former MPs in his province had recently met as a group to
decide who would run, and almost certainly win, their seats.
The Governor of Sakhon Nakhon said that TRT's successor
parties, such as Matchima, are already working to secure the
support of former TRT figures in his province.

COMMENT
--------------


12. (C) These confident predictions that the referendum will
pass don't appear to be rooted in any scientific certainty,
but they reflect the practiced political practicality of
rural Thai politics. While academics and activists in
Bangkok debate the moral dilemma of voting for a constitution
written by a non-democratic government, officials in the
countryside are focused on getting to the next step, rather
than examining the path thus far.
ENTWISTLE