MOD PERMSEC DISCUSSES THAI POLITICAL SITUATION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 003985

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/20/2017
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL MARR TH
SUBJECT: MOD PERMSEC DISCUSSES THAI POLITICAL SITUATION

REF: BANGKOK 1754 [BETTER LIVING THROUGH ISOC]

Classified By: Ambassador Ralph L. Boyce, reason 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Junta member GEN Winai predicted that Army
chief GEN Sonthi would run for political office after he
retires in September. Winai himself denied having any
political plans, and said he plans to remain as MOD Permsec.
He predicted that the constitution would pass the August
referendum. Winai defended the draft internal security act,
although he recognized that there were concerns about giving
considerable new authority to the Army chief, and suggested
that the law might be changed to put someone else in charge
of the new security structure created. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) GEN Winai Phattayul reviewed key political issues
with Ambassador and DCM on July 19. (GEN Winai is both MOD
Permsec and Secretary-General of the Council for National
Security (CNS) - the "coup council" -- giving him an insider
perspective on Thai political developments.) Winai
anticipated that the draft constitution would pass in the
referendum to be held on August 19, and that the elections
would be held by the end of the year. He noted that one
faction of the former ruling Thai Rak Thai party (TRT) was
campaigning against the constitution, but he speculated that
they were primarily trying to flex their muscles now, and
show that they still had some influence. He did not
anticipate they would succeed in blocking the adoption of the
new constitution. The Ambassador suggested that the
political situation was clarifying, but the question
remained: who would the former TRT voters have to vote for in
the upcoming election? GEN Winai pointed out that TRT had
essentially split into four factions, implying that TRT
supporters would have a choice among the parties that would
form from these factions.


3. (C) In response to the Ambassador's question, Winai
predicted that Army Commander/CNS chief GEN Sonthi
Boonyaratglin would enter politics when he retires from the
military in September. The Ambassador advised that Sonthi
staying out of politics was the best option for him if he
wanted to keep his honor. However, if he was determined to
try a political career, then he should not seek an appointed
position; he could run for a constituency seat in the
Parliament, like anyone else. Winai said that he personally
planned to stay as Permsec for another year, and then retire.
Following up on press reports, the Ambassasdor asked about
the possibility that GEN Sonthi could use "Rak Chart," a new
party forming under the leadership of a businessman, as his
political vehicle. Winai replied non-committally, noting
that this was possible.


4. (C) The Ambassador raised concerns about the new internal
security law; many people believe this law would give
excessive power to the Internal Security Operations Command
(ISOC) which is headed by the Army commander (reftel). The
Ambassador asked why the government was rushing this law
through now. GEN Winai replied that it would probably not be
possible to get the law passed through an elected parliament,
given the controversies around it. He defended the law,
saying every country in the region had an Internal Security
Act. He said that the new authority given to ISOC would not
be abused because, "our citizens wouldn't stand for it."
Winai conceded that there were concerns about the powers
given to the Army commander, and he suggested that it would
be better to have some other official, not the Army chief, at
the head of ISOC.


5. (C) Comment: The leaders of last September's coup are
looking for a soft landing after the return to elected
government. It is now generally believed that Army commander
GEN Sonthi is looking to enter politics; Winai's prediction
is no surprise. Winai has one more year until he retires, so
he can retain the security of a post in the MOD. His name
has been mentioned as a contender for Army commander, but he
would probably also be content to remain as Permsec. We are
encouraged by his comments about the constitution and the
possibility of changing the draft the internal security act
(which is highly unpopular and causing much concern.) We
hope that, as the CNS gains more confidence that the
transition is going smoothly, they will be less likely to try
to restrict political speech and civil liberties.

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BOYCE