ACTIVIST DISCUSSES PROGRESS ON CONSTITUTION,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 000368

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/17/2016
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL KDEM TH
SUBJECT: ACTIVIST DISCUSSES PROGRESS ON CONSTITUTION,
CONCERNS REFERENDUM MAY FAIL

REF: BANGKOK 311

Classified By: Political Counselor Susan M. Sutton, reason 1.4 (b) and
(d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: A member of the Constitution Drafting
Assembly told us that a vigorous outreach program to promote
public participation and support for the new constitution
would be necessary to ensure that the final product was good
and would pass in the referendum to be held by August. He
complained that the high qualifications set for the
constitution drafters would limit the participation of
genuine representatives of the people, although a compromise
had permitted a somewhat more diverse group of drafters to be
chosen. We are hearing more and more concerns that the
constitution might not pass the required referendum, an
undesirable outcome that may increasingly occupy the
attention of constitution drafters and the government. End
summary.


2. (C) Chirmsak Pinthong, former senator and democracy
activist, discussed the importance of winning popular support
for the new constitution during a January 16 meeting with
polcouns. Chirmsak, who is a member of the 100-person
Constitution Drafting Assembly, said that he would devote
most of his efforts for the next six months to supporting
genuine public participation in the debate about the new
constitution. Chirmsak was worried about low turn-out for
the constitution referendum, which must be held by August
according to the timeline set out in the interim
constitution. Of the approximately 45 million eligible
voters, he would expect perhaps a little more than half to
vote. He estimated that about six million would oppose the
new constitution on principle -- because they opposed the
coup, or were "single issue" voters who would disagree
strongly with some isolated provision, such as the status of
Buddhism or the election of senators. Another six million
would oppose the constitution because Thaksin's Thai Rak Thai
would campaign against it (reftel). In addition to getting a
"no" vote from committed Thaksin supporters, he expected vote
buying to play a role. "At 300 baht per vote, it is not very
expensive," he said. Polcouns told him of our concern that
the timeline for return to democratically-elected government
was too protracted, and our hope that it can be accelerated.
Chirmsak responded that the six month deadline for the
constitution was "tight" and emphasized his concern that
enough time be spent getting public participation and support
so that the draft would be good and would pass the referendum.


3. (C) Chirmsak met with us as the CDA was electing the 25
members of the Constitution Drafting Committee chosen by the
CDA (10 more are being chosen by the Council for National
Security). Chirmsak had led a small revolt of CDA members
earlier in the week; they opposed the requirement set by
government regulation that most members of the CDC have
higher education degrees or have held a senior government
position. Chirmsak claimed that this would limit the
involvement of genuine representatives of the people and tend
to make the constitution reflect the interests of the
"bureaucracy" and not those of the citizens. In the end, the
CDA was told that there was not time to seek a formal change
in the regulation, since this would delay the constitution
drafting process, but they had found a way to bend the rules
a little. Chirmsak said that this had facilitated, for
example, the election of the wife (presumed widow) of
disappeared Muslim lawyer Somchai Neelipaichit as one of the
drafters. Although a compromise had been found, Chirmsak
still objected, in principle, to the government setting out
the regulations governing the CDA's choices, and he had
therefore refused to be considered to serve as one of the 35
drafters -- a slot he was predicted to win with ease, had he
wanted it.


4. (C) Comment: We are hearing more and more concerns that
the new constitution may not pass the required referendum.
None of these opinions are the result of scientific surveys,
but the concerns are expressed by experienced political
figures. If the constitution does not pass, according to the
interim charter, the CNS and the government can pick any
previous constitution, amend it as necessary within thirty
days of the referendum and present it to the King for
signature and promulgation. Some political observers predict
that this turn of events could provoke a public backlash, or

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at the very least, invite more political uncertainty. This
is yet one more instance of how something that was viewed as
a fairly mundane, mechanical process a few months ago -- a
technicality -- has become unpredictable, to the detriment of
the coup leaders and their origin designs. End comment.
BOYCE