WEEKEND PROTESTS IN BANGKOK FIZZLE AGAIN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 003501

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EAP/MLS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/25/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM PHUM TH
SUBJECT: WEEKEND PROTESTS IN BANGKOK FIZZLE AGAIN

REF: BANGKOK 03445 (DIMINISHED THREAT FROM
DEMONSTRATORS)

Classified By: Political Officer Trent Wilson. Reason 1.4 (b,d)


1. (C) Summary. The anti-government Democratic Alliance
Against Dictatorship (DAAD) organized more protests in
Bangkok June 22-24, but failed to attract their goal of
100,000 protesters for their march on Army headquarters on
June 23. Approximately 15,000 protesters braved heavy rains
to join the protest on that day. While a significant police
presence shadowed the group, there were no reported clashes
between security forces and protesters. Protest leaders
condemned the coup, called for elections and engaged in
surprisingly direct attacks on Privy Council President Prem
Tinsulanonda. Conversations with participants revealed a
high level of organization and attendance by rural
Northeasterners. Some DAAD leaders have called for the
protests to continue, but it is hard to escape the conclusion
that the protests have fizzled, for now at least. End
Summary.

THE FINAL COUNTDOWN?
--------------


2. (SBU) In a continuation of their efforts to build public
support for the overthrow of the Surayud government and
Council on National Security (CNS),DAAD leaders called for a
final push of rallies June 22-24 to coincide with the 75th
anniversary of the bloodless coup that abolished the absolute
monarchy. DAAD leaders predicted that at least 100,000
people would join their rally at Sanam Luang (the Thai
National Mall downtown) and march on Army headquarters.
WELCOME TO THE SHOW
--------------


3. (SBU) Poloff and PolFSN joined the crowd at Sanam Luang on
June 23. Despite looming thunder clouds, approximately 4,000
people were gathered in front of the massive DAAD stage,
listening to speakers exorciate the CNS and praise Thaksin.
Accompanying the crowd--which appeared, for the first time,
to be divided in several well-organized groups--were an
increasingly large number of food and anti-government
memorabilia vendors. Representatives from each of the
anti-coup groups represented by the DAAD oversaw small booths
with DVDs, stickers and t-shirts. Volunteers handed out Thai
flags, as well as banners saying "CNS get out!" The crowd
was energetic and jubilant.

BANGKOK'S LATEST EXTREME SPORT: PREM-BASHING
--------------


4. (C) While a small segment of anti-government memorabilia
has targeted elder statesman and Privy Councilor Prem
Tinsulanonda, DAAD leaders had kept their attacks on the
venerable "Uncle Prem" relatively indirect in previous
rallies. Jakrapop Penkhae, one of the youngest and most
energetic DAAD leaders, dismissed this restraint on June 23,
with surprisingly direct verbal barrages. Jakrapop pivoted
from an attack on Army (and CNS) leaders Sonthi and Saprang
by stating that Prem was behind the coup and should resign.
Flyers attacking Prem for "acting like royalty" and failing
to show appropriate respect for the King circulated. One
enterprising group of protesters even organized a mock
cremation/funeral march for the Privy Council head. (Note:
Press reports on June 25 suggested that legal action may be
taken against Jakrapop for these statements. End Note.)

OFF TO ARMY HQ
--------------


5. (SBU) By 1430 hours, the growing crowd marched to Army
headquarters a little over a kilometer away. Police contacts
estimated the crowd at 6,000 strong; CNS contacts said that
up to 22,000 people were involved. Our own count put the
crowd at 15,000 or so. The crowd moved slowly, but steadily,
and protest leaders carefully halted the march when faced
with barricades and several hundred policemen on the street
leading to Army HQ. The entire caravan appeared
well-organized and carefully managed. After negotiating with
police officials, the barricades were removed and protesters

BANGKOK 00003501 002 OF 002


moved forward to the gates of the Army command. From this
vantage point, DAAD leaders continued their
loudspeaker-enabled speeches against the CNS, while warning
their followers not to attack the police or incite violence.
Police at the scene did not carry weapons and kept their
distance from the crowd; several officers appeared to be
handing out water to protesters. A CNS spokesman told us
that military personnel were being kept confined to Army HQ
as a reserve force, but did not expect them to be used.

HELLO ISAAN!
--------------


6. (C) Poloff spoke to several protesters at the rally. In
contrast to previous DAAD gatherings, the majority (of this
admittedly unscientific sample) said they were from the poor,
rural Northeast. One self-professed organizer told us that
he had organized the movement of 2,000 people from his home
province. Despite efforts by Army officials to prevent the
movement of protesters from the countryside, this group had
used personal vehicles instead of easily detected charter
buses to come to the capital for the protest. When asked how
these people could afford such a journey, this organizer said
that former members of parliament (e.g. Thai Rak Thai MPs)
distributed money through local government officials to fund
the effort. In a separate conversation, a young protester
from Surin (a northeastern province) told Poloff, with
apparent sincerity, that he was personally angry at the
ouster of Thaksin and the unwillingness of Thai media outlets
to report "the truth" on the CNS and Surayud government.
"This isn't democracy. Is it?"

RAIN-OUT
--------------


7. (SBU) By 1600 or so, heavy rain assaulted the now tired
crowd. Despite the best efforts of food vendors flooding the
area, a significant portion of protesters departed, leaving a
soggy group of approximately 5,000 people in front of Army
HQ. Despite a pledge to "hold" this area until 2330, DAAD
organizers led the crowd back to Sanam Luang at 1830. An
estimated 8,000 people returned to Sanam Luang on June 24,
but did not march anywhere.

ONE RALLY LEADER'S AGENDA
--------------


8. (C) We met privately on June 20 with Prathip Ungsongtham
Hata--a former Senator, prominent social activist and one of
the DAAD leaders. Condemning the CNS and draft constitution,
Prathip advocated the immediate resignation of the coup
leaders and called for immediate elections under the
provisions of the abrogated 1997 constitution. Although not
affiliated with the Thai Rak Thai party, she expressed strong
support for former PM Thaksin's populist policies and
criticized the May 30 court-ordered dissolution of his party
as anti-democratic. Prathip said that any violence stemming
from the protests would originate with the military and not
the demonstrators. We believe that Prathip, like some of the
demonstrators in the crowd, expressed genuine convictions and
was not simply acting as a paid shill of Thaksin.

COMMENT
--------------


9. (C) Several RTG leaders have publicly (and privately)
dismissed the DAAD rallies as a spent force. Even with the
provision of a Thakin-interview video last week and new
"revelations" about CNS perfidy (not to mention payments for
attendance) the rallies have failed to gain traction. A
recent poll in Bangkok reportedly found that nearly 75
percent of capital residents viewed the protests as a
nuisance. With the prospect of earlier-than-expected
elections, what little energy and attention the DAAD had may
be fading for good.
BOYCE