AMBASSADOR'S JUNE 22 DISCUSSION WITH PM SURAYUD

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BANGKOK 003499 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/25/2017 TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM KDEM ASEC ECON EINV ETRD LA TH SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR'S JUNE 22 DISCUSSION WITH PM SURAYUD REF: A. BANGKOK 3402 (ISOC LEGISLATION) ¶B. BANGKOK 3387 (DEMONSTRATIONS) ¶C. BANGKOK 3115 (PARTY RESTRICTIONS EASED) ¶D. BANGKOK 2994 (TRT DISSOLUTION) BANGKOK 00003499 001.2 OF 003 Classified By: Ambassador Ralph L. Boyce, reason 1.4 (b) and (d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) Prime Minister Surayud appears confident that Thailand is on track for elections in late November. In a June 22 discussion as I accompanied him to Nakorn Si Thammarat province, Surayud told me he believes the constitution's second draft will address public criticisms directed at the first version; he saw no sign that opponents of the current administration were mobilizing a vote against the constitution in the upcoming referendum. Surayud said the legislature should act in July to enable the formation of new political parties, allowing sufficient time for elections in late November. Pro-Thai Rak Thai protests seemed in no danger of spinning out of control. Surayud also explained how he saw the Internal Security Operations Command (ISOC) acting at the cabinet's behest under a new Internal Security Act (ISA). Surayud also asked about the arrest in the U.S. of former Hmong commander Vang Pao. End Summary. INTERNAL SECURITY ACT -------------- ¶2. (C) Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont offered me a seat on his plane for a flight down to Nakorn Si Thammarat on June 22, after learning the DAO aircraft on which I was scheduled to fly was grounded due to an electrical failure. (Both Surayud and I were traveling south to attend a ceremony on the occasion of the 66th anniversary of an Islamic school founded by one of former Foreign Minister Surin Pitsuwan's ancestors.) I used the opportunity of traveling with Surayud to ask about the draft Internal Security Act (ISA -- more detail septel). Surayud said the bill was patterned after the USG's own Homeland Security Act; the Council of State was revising the bill, which would then be reviewed once more by the Cabinet before being sent to the National Legislative Assembly (NLA). ¶3. (C) Surayud said the ISA would improve the RTG's capability to handle the insurgency in the South, as well as narcotics trafficking in the Burma border area. I asked if the government would lift martial law nationwide after the ISA's passage, and Surayud assured me this was the case. ¶4. (C) Surayud envisioned that, under the ISA, the Prime Minister would chair a cabinet committee composed of figures charged with national security affairs. This committee would prepare policy directives for the approval of the cabinet; after the cabinet provided its blessing, the Internal Security Operations Command (ISOC) would serve as the implementing agency. Surayud said ISOC would only use powers granted by the ISA when implementing these cabinet directives. ¶5. (C) I asked about reports that the bill would provide ISOC with police-like functions. Surayud said this was definitely not the case. The ISA would simply establish a national version of the civil-military security structure that was operating in the South. The Royal Thai Police would retain all their normal powers and responsibilities, including those of arrest. I drew Surayud's attention to critical press reports that raised the specter of the ISA enabling abuses by the security forces. Surayud stressed that Thailand's ISA would not be patterned after those in Singapore and Malaysia. ¶6. (C) I asked Surayud whether Army Commander (and Council for National Security Chairman) Sonthi Boonyaratglin might serve as ISOC Director after his retirement. Surayud said this should not happen, as the ISOC Director should always be the active duty Army Commander. POLITICAL RIGHTS -------------- ¶7. (C) Highlighting USG support for the recent recision of BANGKOK 00003499 002.2 OF 003 restrictions on political party activities (ref C),I asked when new parties might be allowed to register. Surayud explained that the NLA would soon consider a bill to allow party registration. The cabinet had recommended the NLA pass the bill in an expedited single hearing, but the NLA had determined it would go through its normal procedures, which would probably result in a law sometime in July. This would provide new parties with time to form, compile candidate lists, and campaign in advance of an election on November 25 (Surayud's latest public target date, moved up from late December). Surayud emphasized there was sufficient time to allow elections in late November. I said it would be important for the constituents of recently-dissolved Thai Rak Thai (TRT) to feel they had a party representing their interests. Surayud said former TRT figures would be able to form a new party, but they would likely be precluded from using the TRT name. THAKSIN -------------- ¶8. (C) When I asked what deposed PM Thaksin seemed to be doing these days, Surayud quipped that he was buying a soccer team (Manchester City). I asked whether Surayud had seen Thaksin's videotaped address, played at a recent demonstration (ref B). Surayud said he had, and he assessed Thaksin, in his usual form, was playing a dual-track game, reassuring his followers he was still relevant and would work on their behalf while also promising that he had renounced politics. DEMONSTRATIONS -------------- ¶9. (C) I told Surayud that Police Chief Sereepisuth had told me he was not worried about pro-Thaksin/anti-coup demonstrations getting out of hand (septel). The Embassy's first-hand observations had indicated there was a core group of up to 10,000 people who were committed to attending rallies, but the group seemed to remain orderly and composed. Surayud agreed that the demonstrations did not seem in danger of spinning out of control. He remarked that he himself encountered no hostility during his travels, including to Thaksin's home province of Chiang Mai. CONSTITUTION -------------- ¶10. (C) I asked Surayud how he felt about the ongoing constitution drafting process. He said this process involved a lot of hard work, and he hoped the public recognized this. Much of the content in the first draft would change as the Constitution Drafting Assembly (CDA) prepared a second version. Surayud expected the new version to be markedly improved, as the CDA was responding to widespread criticism of certain provisions. He expected the draft would pass the upcoming referendum; he had not detected that Thaksin or other TRT figures were pushing for the charter's defeat. Most people wanted elections, he said. He found it ironic that some local critics had called for fast elections, only to complain, when Surayud had announced his intention to work toward a November 25 elections, that there might not be enough time to prepare. VANG PAO INQUIRY -------------- ¶11. (C) Surayud asked about his "old friend" Vang Pao -- the Hmong commander from the war era -- now that he had been charged with violating the U.S. Neutrality Act. (Comment: Prior to this remark, we were unaware of ties between Surayud and Vang Pao. It remains unclear whether Surayud used the term "friend" jokingly. End Comment.) I explained that Vang Pao and his accomplices had clearly engaged in illegal activities, seeking to procure advanced weapons in an amateurish effort to overthrow the Lao Government. The arrest had shocked many Hmong, but I had told some Hmong-Americans residing in Thailand that I saw no reason why they needed to worry about their safety. Surayud agreed with this assessment and said he would pass my explanation on to the Hmong community. BANGKOK 00003499 003.2 OF 003 GRATEFUL AMERICAN GLASS MANUFACTURER -------------- ¶12. (SBU) I also relayed to Surayud an expression of gratitude from senior officers of Siam Guardian Glass, a Thai subsidiary of U.S. firm Guardian Industries. (Note: The Guardian official had told me he had asked Surayud to reset Thai import tariffs for foreign competitors at the five percent level, in accordance with existing Thai law. Surayud had agreed with the company's logic, and the RTG had agreed to reverse what appeared to be an erroneous elimination of tariffs. End Note.) COMMENT -------------- ¶13. (C) Surayud appeared relaxed, positive, and confident -- and he has reason to be. Events have been developing favorably for him since the Thai Rak Thai dissolution ruling, and Thailand seems on track for the constitutional referendum and elections, which Surayud has been working toward since he took office. He seems pleased to be moving steadily toward the end of his time as Prime Minister. BOYCE