EARLIER ELECTION POSSIBLE; DIMINISHED THREAT FROM

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 003445

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/21/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM ECON TH
SUBJECT: EARLIER ELECTION POSSIBLE; DIMINISHED THREAT FROM
DEMONSTRATORS

Classified By: Political Counselor Susan M. Sutton, reason 1.4 (b) and
(d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Momentum is building for elections to be
held November 25, about a month earlier than previously
announced. The promise of earlier elections could help blunt
calls for the interim government and junta to step down.
Members of the dissolved Thai Rak Thai party are waiting for
the legislature to approve the procedures for new parties to
register. The legislature is proceeding at a deliberate pace
on this issue. It is generally held in Bangkok that the
ongoing pro-Thaksin/anti-coup demonstrations are a bust.
Nonetheless, the protesters plan to rally again on Saturday;
the threat of bad weather again may contribute to
lower-than-hoped-for turnout, unless some scandal or
provocation reinvigorates the demonstrations. END SUMMARY.

ELECTION DATE MAY ADVANCE
--------------


2. (C) Prime Minister Surayut Chulanont continues to
advocate for elections to be held earlier than then the
December 26 deadline previously proposed by the government.
Surayud and election officials said publicly that the
elections could be moved up to November 25, if the new
charter is approved in the August 19 referendum. This is a
smart move on several counts. It further supports the
government's argument that protests to evict them are
unnecessary as they are on the way out anyway. It creates an
additional incentive, for those who want the return of normal
elected government, to vote for the constitution. A shorter
election campaign may make it little tougher for the new
parties that eventually arise from the ashes of Thaksin's
Thai Rak Thai (TRT) to compete against more established
parties, which share the anti-Thaksin orientation of the
government/Council for National Security (CNS).

AND SPEAKING OF THE ASHES OF TRT
--------------


3. (C) The National Legislative Assembly (NLA) on June 20
agreed in principle to rescind the ban on registration of new
political parties, but it also voted to deliberate the bill
under normal parliamentary procedures. The PM had suggested
that the NLA could adopt the bill in an expedited manner, by
holding the three required readings in one day. The NLA
established a 15-member panel to study the bill for one week.
According to an NGO contact, TRT members are threatening to
campaign against the constitution if they are not allowed to
register new parties by the time of the referendum in
mid-August. Given the NLA vote yesterday, it does not appear
that it will take that long to resolve this issue, but the
NLA has proven to be unpredictable.


AND SPEAKING OF UNPREDICTABLE -- WEATHER AND THAKSIN
-------------- --------------


4. (C) How many Thaksin supporters will turn out on Saturday
for the march on Army Headquarters? The Democratic Alliance
Against Dictatorship (DAAD) is still planning to rally junta
opponents and Thaksin supporters on Saturday at noon, to try
to stage the protest march that was rained out last week.
Unfortunately for them, rainy season is here, and the weather
looks to be stormy again during the weekend. This is likely
to discourage potential supporters from attending; in any
case, the organizers do not appear to be able to muster an
impressive crowd of supporters. The general view in Bangkok
is that the protests have fizzled out, unless something
happens to reinvigorate the demonstrators.


5. (C) At this point, there are no obvious flashpoints for
the rest of the month. The Constitutional Drafting Assembly
(CDA) continues to debate revisions to the draft
constitution. About a dozen monks are on hunger strike in
front of their meeting place, calling for the inclusion of
Buddhism as the state religion in the new charter. Debate on
this issue, which is potentially contentious, has been
delayed, but is likely to take place about June 27 or 28.
Monks at the demonstration site told us today that they

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expected to have "thousands of demonstrators" out to join
them during the debate. Several of the fasting monks were
taken to the hospital last week, they have returned to
protest site and resumed fasting. While the death or serious
illness of one of these monks would be a cause of dismay,
there is no indication that anything happening at this site
could feed into the DAAD protest.


6. (C) Former PM Thaksin is also giving no sign of returning
to face the accumulating charges against him. The
prosecutors on June 20 filed corruption charges against
Thaksin and his wife over a controversial land deal. The
Supreme Court will decide by July 10 whether to accept the
case or not. The Assets Examination Commission, meanwhile,
announced they will freeze additional assets found in six
more bank accounts. In England, according to press reports,
Thaksin pursued his plans to go through with the purchase of
the Manchester City Soccer Team with an announced bid of
about usdols 160 million.




BOYCE