PLANS FOR RALLY, THAKSIN RETURN, UNCLEAR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 003278

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

PACOM FOR FPA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/12/2017
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL KDEM TH
SUBJECT: PLANS FOR RALLY, THAKSIN RETURN, UNCLEAR

REF: A. BANGKOK 3210

B. BANGKOK 1914

Classified By: Political Counselor Susan M. Sutton, reason 1.4 (b) and
(d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Pro-Thaksin groups are threatening to bring
supporters from outside Bangkok to swell the numbers at the
anti-junta protests this weekend. They are likely to march
again, perhaps on Army HQ or the house of Thaksin nemesis
Privy Councillor Prem. This threat, combined with the
announcement that Thaksin would return "soon," has raised the
level of tensions in Bangkok, as many have leapt to the
premature conclusion that Thaksin will be back by Saturday to
lead the demonstrations. Police appear to be preparing
responsibly for the weekend rallies, and say they are
committed not to use force. A list of leaders of the new
protest coaltion "DAAD" is included, para 6. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) Pro-Thaksin groups are threatening to ramp up their
demonstrations. On June 3, the demonstrators announced that
they would rally daily until June 24, their target for
ousting the Council on National Security (CNS). Last
Saturday, about 10,000 of the protesters marched on the Army
headquarters without serious incident. On Sunday, the crowd
reached about 25,000, based on our rough estimation (REF A).
Rally organizers say that, starting today, they will bring in
more supporters from outside Bangkok for rallies this
weekend, and some sources indicate that they are planning
this to be the last hurrah for the protest rallies. They
would likely march from the protest site at Sanam Luang
again. with Army Headquarters and the home of Thaksin
nemesis, Privy Counselor Prem, suggested as possible targets.
(For list of groups in the new protest coalition, see para
6).


3. (C) RSO Police contacts say that they have been meeting
daily to discuss the way to handle the crowds. The CNS has
emphasized the need to be sure that the protests do not get
out of control. The police believe that the best course of
action is to let the crowd march where it wants to, but
protect any government building they target. The police say
that they are committed not to use force and will take care
in responding to provocations. RSO's contact expected the
protests to be larger this weekend, but did not appear to be
overly concerned about violence. He did express concern that
the number of police deployed might not be sufficient if
serious violence broke out. We also understand that the
police will be watching the roads into Bangkok, and will try
to prevent other groups of protesters from coming into the
city. The police contact denied rumors of a curfew being put
in place over the weekend.


4. (C) The police contact estimated that some 40% of the
crowds turning out for the demonstrations were genuinely
committed to the cause. Other participants might be paid to
participate. (One embassy maid said she'd been offered 500
baht to attend the rally; someone from her neighborhood is
responsible for recruiting protesters and ensuring they
participate in order to get paid.)

WHERE'S THAKSIN?
--------------


4. (C) Thaksin's lawyer announced on June 12 that Thaksin
would return home "soon," with the date to be determined
within the next few days. PM Surayud and "military leaders"
told the press that Thaksin could return if he wished,
although Surayud said that "after the general elections"
would be a better time to return. The lawyer threatened that
Thaksin could return to politics in response to government
"bullying."

COMMENT
--------------


5. (C) The two announcements -- bigger rallies and Thaksin's
return -- have ratcheted up levels of concern here, with many
leaping to the conclusion that Thaksin will be back by
Saturday to lead the protests. This is not yet clear, but it

BANGKOK 00003278 002 OF 002


seems likely to be a tense weekend in any case.

DEMOCRATIC ALLIANCE AGAINST DICTATORSHIP
--------------


6. (C) The anti-junta rallies have been led by the People's
Television (PTV) group. Several former Thai Rak Thai members
tried to register a cable TV station, but have been blocked
from doing so (REF B). PTV began to rally in March,
ostensibly to protest this restriction on press freedom, but
the demonstrations quickly morphed into pro-Thaksin rallies.
Ex-TRT MP and executive board member Wira Musikaphong is the
senior PTV leader. Wira has a colorful political background:
he started out in the Democrat Party and was later in GEN
Chavalit's New Aspiration Party when it merged with TRT in

2002. He quit TRT this year along with two other TRT members
to set up PTV. He has been banned from political office
before (convicted of lese-majeste, in 1986, but was pardoned)
and was involved in an abortive coup in 1977. In order to
appear less "pro-Thaksin" and more "pro-democracy and
anti-coup," PTV has sought other partners to participate in
the rallies. Many pro-democracy NGO types are reluctant to
participate, as they oppose Thaksin's return. This week,
Wira joined with six other coup opponents to form the
"Democratic Alliance Against Dictatorship." (It is worth
noting how closely the DAAD parallels the development of the
anti-Thaksin People's Alliance for Democracy - PAD - which
led the anti-Thaksin protests last year. PAD formed around
the core protest group led by Sonthi Limthongkul, who started
out by protesting the cancellation of this broadcast TV
show.) The DAAD on June 10 elected Manit Jitjanklab, a
former Supreme Court judge reportedly close to Thaksin, as
leader. Other members include:

Prateep Unsontham Hata (ex-senator, noted social activist in
Bangkok slums)
Weng Tojirakarn, Confederation for Democracy (former
communist, supported the anti-Thaksin demonstrations last
year.)
Viputhalean Pattanaphumthai, Saturday Voice Against
Dictatorship
Shinawat Habunphad, Taxi Drivers Protection Association
President (spearheaded the movement of taxi drivers
supporting Thaksin last year during the PAD protests)
Chupong Teetuan, 87.75 community radio host (former leading
figure in the Caravan of the Poor and vocal Thaksin
supporter.)
BOYCE