FORMER TRT LEADER DISCUSSES POLITICAL SITUATION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 003166

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/07/2017
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM KJUS ASEC TH
SUBJECT: FORMER TRT LEADER DISCUSSES POLITICAL SITUATION
WITH AMBASSADOR

REF: A. BANGKOK 3058 (AMNESTY PROPOSAL)


B. BANGKOK 2994 (TRT DISSOLVED)

BANGKOK 00003166 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: Ambassador Ralph L. Boyce, reason 1.4 (b) and (d).

SUMMARY
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1. (C) Former Thai Rak Thai (TRT) Party Leader Chaturon
Chaiseng told the Ambassador he aimed to re-register the
dissolved TRT party before the next elections. At least one
sizeable group of his colleagues, however, appears likely to
throw its lot in with the Council for National Security
(CNS). Still others are focusing on joining
pro-Thaksin/anti-CNS demonstrations. Chaturon decried the
recent Constitutional Tribunal ruling as unfair but admitted
he had no avenue to appeal. He believed the ban would likely
block his and his cohorts' candidacy in the coming election
but would most likely be rescinded well before the end of the
announced five-year period. Chaturon believed the
constitution could be voted down in the upcoming referendum
if its first draft is not significantly modified, and this
scenario would trigger a legitimacy crisis for the interim
government. End Summary.

FORMER TRT FIGURES PREPARING FOR ELECTIONS...
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2. (C) The Ambassador hosted former Thai Rak Thai Party
Leader Chaturon Chaiseng for lunch at the Residence on June

7. Chaturon appeared relaxed but dismayed with the recent
Constitutional Tribunal ruling (ref B); he restated his
determination to strive for Thai Rak Thai (TRT) participation
in the next elections. His colleagues in the former party
would pursue a dual strategy, he said -- trying to reregister
the party as "Thai Rak Thai," but also preparing a backup
vehicle, in the event that the authorities prohibit the use
of the former party's name. Chaturon did not speculate
extensively about who might lead the new TRT vehicle but
claimed that former Prime Minister Chavalit Yongchaiyudh --
the subject of some speculation -- lacked the necessary
support, even in his own former strongholds, to rebuild and
lead Thai Rak Thai or a new party.

... AS ARE THE GENERALS IN THE CNS
--------------


3. (C) Chaturon said he was working to hold together the
leaders of the former TRT party. However, he said he was
resigned to the defection of influential faction leader
Somsak Thepsuthin, who had at least 70 former legislators
loyal to him in the post-coup "Matchima" political grouping.
Chaturon confirmed that, after the May 30 ruling, Somsak was
prepared to throw his lot in with Chaturon and other leading
former TRT officials. However, General Sonthi's public
signal of support for an amnesty for some TRT figures (ref A)
successfully derailed Somsak's return to the fold. Chaturon
said he was now confident that Somsak would support a
yet-to-be-established party that would work on behalf of the
CNS's interests in the next election.

PRO-THAKSIN DEMONSTRATIONS GROW
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4. (C) While Chaturon would press to participate in electoral
politics, he expressed concern that demonstrations against
the Council for National Security (CNS) could grow in size.
Some TRT figures, who had remained quiet while the
Constitutional Tribunal procedures were ongoing, were now
eager to join pro-Thaksin/anti-coup rallies at the Royal
Grounds. Some of these people were hoping to bring about the
CNS's collapse, and could provoke a crackdown by the
authorities, but others among them seemed to be taking a
responsible approach. Chaturon said he doubted that Thaksin
had the means to foment chaos, even if he were to choose to
do so; TRT's strength lay in electoral politics, not in
engineering street protests. However, he worried that events
might eventually lead to a violent crackdown by authorities,
similar to the notorious October 6, 1976 assault on students
at Thammasat University.

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THE TRIBUNAL'S RULING, AND ITS CONSEQUENCES
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5. (C) The Tribunal's ruling was blatantly unfair, Chaturon
said. It was based on circumstantial evidence of wrongdoings
by two party executives, and collective responsibility was
being imposed on the entire party and the executive board.
Citing Philosopher John Rawls' famous book, "A Theory of
Justice," Chaturon denounced the Tribunal, noting he had been
invited to address Supreme Court Justices, some of whom also
disagreed with the ruling. Nevertheless, Chaturon recognized
he lacked a legal avenue to appeal, and he admitted his
public statements promising such an effort were meant simply
to calm angry TRT loyalists.


6. (C) The loss of political rights imposed by the Tribunal
would most likely not last for the full five-year period,
Chaturon predicted. Thai political culture tended to be
forgiving. He envisioned that within two years, the penalty
imposed by the coup leaders would be lifted, either by a
royal pardon, an amnesty, or legislation passed by the next
parliament. The speed with which this would proceed would
depend on the CNS's ability to maintain political power.


7. (C) Chaturon said the Constitutional Tribunal's sparing
the Democrat Party (DP) would generate greater sympathy for
the former TRT leaders. He did not foresee the DP making
inroads into TRT's strongholds. Under normal circumstances,
the DP might win two seats of the 136 in the Northeast
(presuming 400 constituency-based seats); now, he thought the
DP might well fail to win even a single seat in that region.

CONSTITUTIONAL REFERENDUM
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8. (C) The Ambassador asked Chaturon's view of ongoing
constitutional procedures. Chaturon believed the
Constitution Drafting Assembly might feel so emboldened by
the ruling against TRT that its members could choose to
disregard the public's opposition to certain provisions of
the constitution's first draft. If the drafters refused to
modify their draft substantially, the constitution would
likely fail in the referendum. In that event, Chaturon said,
the current authorities would suffer such a strong blow to
their legitimacy that they would not easily be able to follow
through with their backup plan (which entails modifying a
previous Thai constitution and promulgating it without
necessarily engaging in further public consultation).

TALKING WITH THAKSIN
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9. (C) Chaturon told the Ambassador he felt current
conditions required him to be in more frequent contact with
Thaksin. He said he had tried to call Thaksin in Japan on
June 6 but had been unable to reach him because the satellite
phones that Thaksin and some Bangkok-based figures use to
prevent wiretapping do not work in Japan. Chaturon worried
that Thaksin might not understand current conditions in
Thailand, as some of the people who visit Thaksin abroad give
him bad information.

COMMENT
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10. (C) Chaturon's exposition tracks with the views of some
other TRT figures with whom we have spoken since the ruling.
Our contacts seem to agree it is most likely that, one way or
another, a new or extant party will represent Thai Rak Thai
in the next election; TRT figures will position themselves
informally, or behind the scenes, to gain as much political
power as they can, and then work to undo the Tribunal's
ruling. That said, some Thaksin loyalists appear more
interested in confronting the CNS through demonstrations, and
it can be difficult to predict the consequences of mobilizing
crowds.
BOYCE