FORMER TRT LEADER DISCUSSES POLITICAL SITUATION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 003166 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/07/2017 TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM KJUS ASEC TH SUBJECT: FORMER TRT LEADER DISCUSSES POLITICAL SITUATION WITH AMBASSADOR REF: A. BANGKOK 3058 (AMNESTY PROPOSAL) ¶B. BANGKOK 2994 (TRT DISSOLVED) BANGKOK 00003166 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Ambassador Ralph L. Boyce, reason 1.4 (b) and (d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) Former Thai Rak Thai (TRT) Party Leader Chaturon Chaiseng told the Ambassador he aimed to re-register the dissolved TRT party before the next elections. At least one sizeable group of his colleagues, however, appears likely to throw its lot in with the Council for National Security (CNS). Still others are focusing on joining pro-Thaksin/anti-CNS demonstrations. Chaturon decried the recent Constitutional Tribunal ruling as unfair but admitted he had no avenue to appeal. He believed the ban would likely block his and his cohorts' candidacy in the coming election but would most likely be rescinded well before the end of the announced five-year period. Chaturon believed the constitution could be voted down in the upcoming referendum if its first draft is not significantly modified, and this scenario would trigger a legitimacy crisis for the interim government. End Summary. FORMER TRT FIGURES PREPARING FOR ELECTIONS... -------------- ¶2. (C) The Ambassador hosted former Thai Rak Thai Party Leader Chaturon Chaiseng for lunch at the Residence on June ¶7. Chaturon appeared relaxed but dismayed with the recent Constitutional Tribunal ruling (ref B); he restated his determination to strive for Thai Rak Thai (TRT) participation in the next elections. His colleagues in the former party would pursue a dual strategy, he said -- trying to reregister the party as "Thai Rak Thai," but also preparing a backup vehicle, in the event that the authorities prohibit the use of the former party's name. Chaturon did not speculate extensively about who might lead the new TRT vehicle but claimed that former Prime Minister Chavalit Yongchaiyudh -- the subject of some speculation -- lacked the necessary support, even in his own former strongholds, to rebuild and lead Thai Rak Thai or a new party. ... AS ARE THE GENERALS IN THE CNS -------------- ¶3. (C) Chaturon said he was working to hold together the leaders of the former TRT party. However, he said he was resigned to the defection of influential faction leader Somsak Thepsuthin, who had at least 70 former legislators loyal to him in the post-coup "Matchima" political grouping. Chaturon confirmed that, after the May 30 ruling, Somsak was prepared to throw his lot in with Chaturon and other leading former TRT officials. However, General Sonthi's public signal of support for an amnesty for some TRT figures (ref A) successfully derailed Somsak's return to the fold. Chaturon said he was now confident that Somsak would support a yet-to-be-established party that would work on behalf of the CNS's interests in the next election. PRO-THAKSIN DEMONSTRATIONS GROW -------------- ¶4. (C) While Chaturon would press to participate in electoral politics, he expressed concern that demonstrations against the Council for National Security (CNS) could grow in size. Some TRT figures, who had remained quiet while the Constitutional Tribunal procedures were ongoing, were now eager to join pro-Thaksin/anti-coup rallies at the Royal Grounds. Some of these people were hoping to bring about the CNS's collapse, and could provoke a crackdown by the authorities, but others among them seemed to be taking a responsible approach. Chaturon said he doubted that Thaksin had the means to foment chaos, even if he were to choose to do so; TRT's strength lay in electoral politics, not in engineering street protests. However, he worried that events might eventually lead to a violent crackdown by authorities, similar to the notorious October 6, 1976 assault on students at Thammasat University. BANGKOK 00003166 002.2 OF 002 THE TRIBUNAL'S RULING, AND ITS CONSEQUENCES -------------- ¶5. (C) The Tribunal's ruling was blatantly unfair, Chaturon said. It was based on circumstantial evidence of wrongdoings by two party executives, and collective responsibility was being imposed on the entire party and the executive board. Citing Philosopher John Rawls' famous book, "A Theory of Justice," Chaturon denounced the Tribunal, noting he had been invited to address Supreme Court Justices, some of whom also disagreed with the ruling. Nevertheless, Chaturon recognized he lacked a legal avenue to appeal, and he admitted his public statements promising such an effort were meant simply to calm angry TRT loyalists. ¶6. (C) The loss of political rights imposed by the Tribunal would most likely not last for the full five-year period, Chaturon predicted. Thai political culture tended to be forgiving. He envisioned that within two years, the penalty imposed by the coup leaders would be lifted, either by a royal pardon, an amnesty, or legislation passed by the next parliament. The speed with which this would proceed would depend on the CNS's ability to maintain political power. ¶7. (C) Chaturon said the Constitutional Tribunal's sparing the Democrat Party (DP) would generate greater sympathy for the former TRT leaders. He did not foresee the DP making inroads into TRT's strongholds. Under normal circumstances, the DP might win two seats of the 136 in the Northeast (presuming 400 constituency-based seats); now, he thought the DP might well fail to win even a single seat in that region. CONSTITUTIONAL REFERENDUM -------------- ¶8. (C) The Ambassador asked Chaturon's view of ongoing constitutional procedures. Chaturon believed the Constitution Drafting Assembly might feel so emboldened by the ruling against TRT that its members could choose to disregard the public's opposition to certain provisions of the constitution's first draft. If the drafters refused to modify their draft substantially, the constitution would likely fail in the referendum. In that event, Chaturon said, the current authorities would suffer such a strong blow to their legitimacy that they would not easily be able to follow through with their backup plan (which entails modifying a previous Thai constitution and promulgating it without necessarily engaging in further public consultation). TALKING WITH THAKSIN -------------- ¶9. (C) Chaturon told the Ambassador he felt current conditions required him to be in more frequent contact with Thaksin. He said he had tried to call Thaksin in Japan on June 6 but had been unable to reach him because the satellite phones that Thaksin and some Bangkok-based figures use to prevent wiretapping do not work in Japan. Chaturon worried that Thaksin might not understand current conditions in Thailand, as some of the people who visit Thaksin abroad give him bad information. COMMENT -------------- ¶10. (C) Chaturon's exposition tracks with the views of some other TRT figures with whom we have spoken since the ruling. Our contacts seem to agree it is most likely that, one way or another, a new or extant party will represent Thai Rak Thai in the next election; TRT figures will position themselves informally, or behind the scenes, to gain as much political power as they can, and then work to undo the Tribunal's ruling. That said, some Thaksin loyalists appear more interested in confronting the CNS through demonstrations, and it can be difficult to predict the consequences of mobilizing crowds. BOYCE