A/S HILL'S MEETING WITH MOD PERMANENT SECRETARY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 002854

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/21/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL MARR TH
SUBJECT: A/S HILL'S MEETING WITH MOD PERMANENT SECRETARY
WINAI


Classified By: Ambassador Ralph L. Boyce. Reason 1.4 (a and d)


1. (C) Summary. In a May 22 meeting with Thai Ministry of
Defense Permanent Secretary GEN Winai Phattiyakul, A/S Hill
urged the Royal Thai Government to fulfill its commitment to
hold elections by year's end and return to parliamentary
democracy. Winai, who is also Secretary General of the
ruling Council for National Security (CNS),assured Hill that
he was "quite confident" that Thailand would conduct a
Constitutional referendum and hold national elections
according to the timeline publicly announced by Prime
Minister Surayud Chulanont. Winai also told Hill "on behalf
of myself, (CNS leader) GEN Sonthi and the entire CNS" that
there were no plans to stage a "re-coup" and that,
irrespective of the upcoming court decision that could
disband Thailand's two largest political parties, he remained
certain that elections would take place as planned. End
Summary.


2. (U) Participants

U.S.
EAP Assistant Secretary Christopher Hill
Ambassador Ralph L. Boyce
Defense Attache Col Steve McKeag
EAP Special Assistant Tom Gibbons
Political Military Officer Mark Lambert

Thai
GEN Winai Phattiyakul, MOD Permanent Secretary and Secretary
General of the Council for National Security
LTG Naraset Issarangkul na Ayudhya, MOD Deputy Director of
Plans and Policy
LTG Prapat Svaitphanu, MOD Political Military Coordinator to
MFA
Notetakers

STICK TO THE TIMETABLE -- THE CONSTITUTION


3. (C) In a business-like meeting at the Ministry of
Defense, EAP Assistant Secretary Christopher Hill asked MOD
Permanent Secretary GEN Winai Phattiyakul for his assessment
of the current political situation and prospects for the
return to parliamentary democracy. While noting how press
stories painted an "uncertain" picture of the situation,
Winai said he was "quite confident" that Thailand would
return to parliamentary democracy according to the timetable
publicly spelled out by PM Surayud. Winai noted that the
Constitution drafting process was going well and reports from
relevant agencies led him to believe that the Constitution
Drafting Assembly would make the "necessary amendments" to
the draft constitution with enough time left for it to be
submitted to the Thai electorate on September 2. This would
allow time to prepare for the general election, he said.
Hill noted the upcoming U.S.-ASEAN Summit would take place
later in September and suggested that a positive outcome of
the Constitutional referendum might be highlighted at that
meeting.

STICK TO THE TIMETABLE -- GENERAL ELECTIONS


4. (C) Hill pressed for Winai's opinion on the timetable to
hold a general election. Winai said "we are all confident --
Surayud, Sonthi and I -- that we will hold a general election
in mid or late December." Winai then expressed his own
personal concern that the general election not mar the
celebration of the King's 80th birthday on December 5. "It
would be improper for politician's campaign posters to
supplant portraits of the King," he said, adding that he
personally favored elections later than December 16 --
perhaps December 23 -- in order to deconflict the two events.
A/S Hill and Ambassador Boyce underscored the importance of
having elections in 2007 -- noting the damage to Thailand's
reputation if the RTG's public promise to hold elections in
2007 were to slip. "You promised elections by the end of the
year and that's what is expected," Hill emphasized.

NO NEW COUP


5. (C) Hill pointed to recent reports in the Thai press
suggesting that some within the CNS were considering a
"re-coup" to oust Surayud. Winai responded "I can tell you
on behalf of GEN Sonthi and the entire CNS that we have no

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intention of staging another coup." "The Thai media is prone
to exaggeration," Winai observed, suggesting that recent
statements by Defense Minister Boonrawd Somtas and other
members of the Cabinet urging anti-CNS demonstrators to show
patience with the timetable for elections had been taken out
of context.

WHAT ABOUT THE COURT DECISION THAT MIGHT DISBAND POLITICAL
PARTIES?


6. (C) Turning to the anticipated May 30 decision before
the Constitutional Tribunal that could disband both the Thai
Rak Thai (TRT) and Democrat political parties for election
irregularities in 2006, Ambassador Boyce asked whether under
the worst case scenario -- in which both parties would be
disbanded and hundreds of politicians barred from politics
for up to five years -- Thailand could still conduct a
credible national election in December. Winai said that he
was confident that elections would take place even under this
worst case scenario. While quick to point out the
independence of the court in the matter, Winai expressed his
understanding that the Tribunal actually possessed the
flexibility to punish either or both parties and even ban a
number of individuals from politics, yet stop short of what
would amount to a wholesale purge of most of the Thai
political class. "If a decision is announced on May 30 that
bans both parties and some key leaders," Winai suggested, "it
would be no big deal at all because enough politicians would
remain to participate in the election."

THE IMPORTANCE OF THE BILATERAL RELATIONSHIP AND THE DARFUR
DEPLOYMENT


7. (C) Winai thanked Hill for the USG's agreement to
participate in this year's Cobra Gold military exercise,
noting his understanding that it was a difficult decision to
make in Washington. He stressed the need for Thailand and
the United States to continue to work together in support of
regional stability. Along those lines, MOD Deputy for Policy
and Plans LTG Naraset Issarangkul na Ayudhya explained that
the Royal Thai Supreme Command was working on a possible Thai
deployment in support of the UN Darfur mission -- as
requested by Washington. Noting that much work remained,
Naraset indicated that Thailand was considering deploying
about 280 engineers to Darfur.


8. (U) A/S Hill did not have an opportunity to clear this
cable.
BOYCE