SCENESETTER FOR THE VISIT OF PACOM J5 RADM MIKE

C O N F I D E N T I A L BANGKOK 002644

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

PACOM FOR J5 RADM TRACY

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/12/2017
TAGS: OVIP PREL MARR MASS TH
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR THE VISIT OF PACOM J5 RADM MIKE
TRACY


Classified By: Ambassador Ralph L. Boyce. Reason 1.4 (a and d)


1. (C) Summary. Mike, your visit to Thailand will allow you
to assess the current political situation, represent PACOM
interests in Thailand and attend portions of the Cobra Gold
exercise. It will also allow you to underscore Washington's
desire that Thailand maintain timetables for drafting a new
constitution and holding elections this year. Continued
political missteps by the Council for National Security (CNS)
and concerns over the draft Constitution have led to growing
criticism by the media and to several small demonstrations.
Public confidence in the effectiveness of the junta to manage
the country, let alone reform politics, is dropping but the
Prime Minister insists that the schedule for the return to an
elected government will be maintained. Despite our concerns
over the return to democracy, Thailand remains important to
U.S. strategic interests in the region. Thailand continues
to provide the United States a unique platform in Asia.
Cobra Gold is America's largest annual joint/combined
multilateral training exercise in the Asia Pacific Region and
includes the active participation of Japan, Singapore and
Indonesia. While applauding the multinational nature of the
exercise, you can privately stress to your interlocutors that
the policy decision whether to participate in the exercise
was made only after deliberation at senior levels in
Washington and that we expect the Thai to fulfill their
commitment to return to democracy. Your visit to key
military installations will afford you a chance to see the
importance of Thailand to our regional security interests.
END SUMMARY.

THE POLITICAL SITUATION


2. (C) A growing number of persons in the Thai media and
intelligentsia are questioning the competence or ethics of
CNS leaders and there have been a number of peaceful
demonstrations protesting the September 19 coup, aspects of
the draft constitution or the leadership of the interim
government. In the coming weeks, many expect more
demonstrations by those seeking amendments to the draft
constitution -- including demonstrations by Buddhist leaders
seeking to make Buddhism the national religion, an issue of
concern given the ongoing violence in the Muslim-majority far
south. Should the constitution referendum fail, the
political situation could become even more complicated. PM
Surayud Chulanont has publicly assured his people that he
will adhere to timetables to submit a new constitution to the
electorate and to hold a national election in December, yet
rumors of a "re-coup" led by hard-liners seeking to attack
former PM Thaksin Shinawatra more aggressively, reinstatement
of martial law in Bangkok to curb demonstrations, or possible
delays in elections are making the rounds. Political gossip
and speculation is a popular pastime in Bangkok -- for every
rumor that CNS head GEN Sonthi Boonyaratglin and PM Surayud
have had a falling out, there is a counter rumor that they
are determined to continue to work together amicably until an
elected government is in place. GEN Sonthi has assured us
privately that he will stick to the announced timetable for
elections and does not support any move to oust PM Surayud.
Your visit will be a good opportunity to tell the Thai
military in no uncertain terms that reinstatement of martial
law, any "re-coup" or slipping of timetables would be opposed
roundly in the international community and have an adverse
impact on the U.S.-Thai relationship.

THE BILATERAL RELATIONSHIP


3. (C) Prior to the coup, bilateral relations with Thailand
were very good and we are optimistic that this will be the
case after a new government is in place. We continue to
focus on ways to ensure that our strategic interests in
maintaining access to Thai military facilities, assisting
Thailand counter regional terrorism, fight transnational
crime and stop the spread of new disease are protected until
an elected government is in place. Thailand is a treaty ally
and has been firmly supportive of our fight against terrorism
and has participated in Operation Enduring Freedom (OEF) and
Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF). It is a key partner in our
efforts to assist refugees and counter narcotics. American
businesses have over $20 billion in direct investment in
Thailand. The United States is Thailand's largest export
market and its second-largest foreign investor.

THE OVERALL SECURITY RELATIONSHIP


4. (C) The U.S.-Thai security relationship is based on over
50 years of close cooperation. Thai soldiers, sailors and
airmen participated in the Korean and Vietnamese Conflicts



and Thai peacekeepers served in Afghanistan and Iraq. Prior
to coup sanctions, Thailand was the fourth largest
participant in the U.S. International Military Education and
Training (IMET) program. Thailand's willingness to allow the
United States to use Utapao Naval Air Station as the hub for
our regional tsunami assistance program was key to making
Operation Unified Assistance a success. As you know from your
visit there in January, Utapao is a unique facility and our
most important Cooperative Security Location (CSL) in the
Asia Pacific Region. In your meetings with Thai military
officials, you will want to note our determination to return
to a more healthy military-military relationship once a
democratically elected government is in place.

COUNTERTERRORISM AND SOUTHERN THAILAND


5. (C) Southern Thailand, in particular the southernmost
Muslim majority provinces of Pattani, Yala, and Narathiwat,
has experienced episodic violence since it was incorporated
into the Siamese Kingdom in 1902. However, since January
2004 over 2,000 persons have been killed either by militants
or by security forces; the level of violence has worsened in
recent months. Several particularly heinous incidents --
including the brutal execution murders of eight Buddhist van
passengers -- have triggered reprisal acts of violence such
as a grenade attack against a mosque that injured 14.
Despite these recent events, PM Surayud has maintained his
commitment to finding a peaceful settlement to the situation.
He has made several gestures of goodwill towards militants:
in November he apologized for past human rights abuses by
security officials; he has pledged to increase cooperation
with Malaysian authorities; consider opportunities to
negotiate with separatists; he reinstated the interagency
security coordination centers that were dissolved by Thaksin
that served to defuse tensions and investigate incidents;
and, he has pledged to make amnesty a part of any eventual
peace settlement. However, analysts are skeptical that any
progress can be made until basic security is guaranteed in
the region. Other plans put forward by the RTA, including
arming Buddhist paramilitary "ranger units," seem less well
thought out and run the risk of exacerbating the unrest.


6. (C) In order to avoid redirecting the anger of insurgents
towards the United States and linking the insurgency to the
international jihadist movement -- a link that is currently
absent -- we ensure that any offers of assistance or training
pass the "location and label" test. Put simply, we keep U.S.
military personnel away from the far south and we make sure
that we do not label any assistance or training as directly
linked to the southern situation. Examples of the types of
training we offer the Thai to improve their ability to
counter insurgents include:

--Conducting a Non-Lethal Weapons Seminar and deploying a Non
Lethal Weapons mobile training team (MTT) designed to assist
Thai soldiers conduct quasi-police functions like crowd
control and less than lethal use of force.

--Setting up a U.S. Information Operations Team to assist the
Royal Thai Army (RTA) to develop psyops capabilities such as
target audience analysis, effect, message development,
product development and distribution.

--Assigning a U.S. Civil Affairs Planner to assist the RTA
develop better Civil Affairs programs in the south.

--Dispatching mobile education teams to conduct courses on
Human Rights/Law of Armed Conflict and the Legal Aspects of
Counter Terrorism and Domestic Military Operations.

--Each year, U.S. Special Operation Forces conduct about five
Joint Combined Exchange Training (JCET) exercises throughout
Thailand. The primary purpose of these exercises is to
maintain military skills, improve interoperabilitiy, and gain
access to facilities and influence key military leaders.
Each mission lasts approximately six weeks and focuses on
training Royal Thai special operations and conventional
forces -- including the Thai Delta Force, Thai Army Special
Forces and Thai Navy SEALS. Each JCET targets 150-200
soldiers for training. Skill sets include: direct action
hostage rescue, raids, ambushes, special reconnaissance
(urban and rural),advanced urban combat, jungle operations,
combat medical training, battalion level counter insurgency
(COIN),parachute, psychological and riverine operations.
Air Force JCETS focus on Combat Search and Rescue (CSAR) and
rotary wing night flying to support Royal Thai Navy, Army and
Air Force CT units.

--Conducting courses run by the Defense Institute for
International Legal Studies' (DIILS) Legal Aspects of
Combating Terrorism Mobile Training Team (MTT). DIILS has
conducted 13 MTTs in Thailand since 1996. Topics included
Peace Operations, Military Operations other than War, Human
Rights Violations, Law of the Sea, and Legal Aspects of
Combating Terrorism. Each seminar targeted 50-60
participants from the Thai MOD, Royal Thai Supreme Command,
Ministry of Justice, NSC, Special Police Branch, MFA and
Counter Terrorism Operations Center. Following the death of
scores of Muslim protestors at Tak Bai in 2005, DIILS
conducted a special Human Rights Violation/Law of Armed
Conflict MTT at Royal Thai Supreme Command. DIILS has
assisted in developing a comprehensive strategic plan for
educating and training the military and police to conduct
themselves in accord with international rules of behavior.
DIILS will conduct a Legal Aspects of Counter Terrorism MTT
in late May, 2007.


7. (C) We are exploring other ways to assist the Thai. For
example:

--We are discussing whether to expand the multi-national
participation in Cobra Gold and evolving the exercise to
include more counter insurgency and counter terrorism
training.

--We have a number of efforts underway to improve the Thai
military's command, control, communications, computers and
intelligence (C4I) capabilities that will improve their
ability to coordinate counter insurgency operations among
units and with the police.

--A number of senior Thai RTA officers have asked for
assistance in developing better training materials for Thai
soldiers at the RTA Infantry Center and to improve
instruction in identifying and defeating IEDs, conduct better
Civil Military Operations and Information Operations.

MILITARY EXERCISE PROGRAM


8. (C) Thailand gives the U.S. military a platform for
exercises unique in Asia. Thailand offers the United States
good base infrastructure, large areas in which our aircraft
and ground forces can conduct unrestricted operations, and
access to bombing ranges -- all in short supply in Asia.
Located near strategic maritime choke points and having good
liberty ports, Thailand also has the potential to play a
greater role in U.S. Naval planning. Perhaps due to their
lack of a colonial heritage, Thai leaders are far more
willing to host multilateral exercises than are other
countries in Asia. Unlike Japan, which only hosts annual
bilateral exercises due to legal prohibitions over collective
security, or Australia, which avoids multilateral exercises
so as not to "dumb down" its own training opportunities, the
Royal Thai Government supports multilateral exercises as a
way to show regional leadership. This has allowed us to use
our exercises in Thailand to further key U.S. objectives such
as supporting Japan's growing military role in Asia and
engaging the TNI. The Thai are aware that we only approved
this year's Cope Tiger air exercise and Cobra Gold exercise
after high-level discussions.

THE ROLE OF CHINA AND INDIA IN THE REGION


9. (C) Thailand continues to feel the rising influence of
China and has improved military links with India. While
emphasizing the vital role of the U.S. in the region -- and
Thailand's desire to intensify U.S. engagement -- Thai
leaders also focus on developing stronger relations with the
two regional powers. Bangkok views both countries as sources
of unlimited consumer demand and hopes to conclude Free Trade
Agreements with both nations. The Thai military has a number
of Chinese weapons systems in its arsenal and mil-mil
contacts are improving. For example, RTA CINC GEN Sonthi
visited PRC Defense Minister Cao Gangchuan and Vice President
Zeng Qinghong during a four-day visit to Beijing in January.
While Thai military links with the United States are deeper
and far more apparent than Sino-Thai links, China's growing
influence in Thailand and Southeast Asia is evident in
business, the arts, the media and the military. The PLA Navy
has close links with the RTN and recently conducted a major
ship visit to Phuket. After jointly holding a limited naval
exercise in the Andaman Sea in 2005, Thailand and China are
exploring conducting joint SAR exercises. The RTN has
acquired several ships from China over the past decade.
China is refurbishing tanks and air defense equipment
provided to Thailand in the late 1980's. Mil-to-mil
exchanges between China and Thailand have expanded in recent
years as has the number of bilateral military VIP visits.

COBRA GOLD


10. (C) Your visit will allow you to attend parts of the
annual Cobra Gold exercise. This is the 26th iteration of
Cobra Gold. The exercise has evolved from a bilateral event
designed to repel an armored invasion from Vietnam to a
multilateral Command Post Exercise (CPX) coupled with a
U.S.-Thai joint/combined Field Training Exercise (FTX) and
multilateral engineering and medical civil affairs projects
(ENCAPS/MEDCAPS). This year, Thailand, the United States,
Singapore, Japan and Indonesia will participate in the CPX
which will focus on a PKO scenario. The U.S., Thailand,
Singapore and Japan will take part in MEDCAPS/ENCAPS and
several countries, including the PRC, Australia, France,
Germany, the Philippines and Korea will observe the exercise.
MARFORPAC will lead the U.S. contingent for Cobra Gold this
year and next year. Marines and soldiers will conduct ground
exercises in various parts of the country. We expect F-18s
and KC-130s from the USMC, P-3's and F-18s from the USN and
B-52s and C-130s from the USAF to participate. Plans for the
13th MEU to participate were overcome by events but we will
have a ship presence from the Navy.


11. (U) I hope to see you during your visit.
BOYCE